FI Morning Grain Comments 09/01/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Soybeans
are lower led by Nov, meal lower and soybean oil higher.  Corn is lower form a less than expected drop in US crop ratings.  Wheat turned mostly lower on global crop concerns and dryness across the US Great Plains.  U.S. Delta will receive additional rain this
week keeping producers out of the fields while drier weather will occur in the Midwest and Delta late this week.  AmSpec reported August palm exports fell 15.1 percent from the previous month.  After a one-day holiday, palm oil rallied about 44 points and
cash was up $13.50/ton. Indonesia’s 2020 palm production was seen at 46.02 million tons, a sharp decline from 47.11MMT in 2019.  Exports were projected to fall 18 percent from 2019, according to GAPKI.  Ukraine’s deputy minister projected sunflower production
down 8.5 percent to 14 million tons from 15.3 million in 2019.   Japan seeks 106,937 tons of food wheat later this week for arrival by December 31. South Korea’s MFG passed on feed wheat.  APK-Inform estimated Ukraine’s corn crop could fall 8 percent to 35.1
million tons. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

NORTH
AMERICA

• Cooling
  is expected in waves from late this week through next week
• Frost
  and a few freezes are expected in Canada’s Prairies and the north-central U.S. with frost most likely in the U.S.
  
• Details
  about the cold will come a little later this week, but the event is quite likely to occur because of notable changes occurring over the northwestern Pacific Ocean and a chain reaction that will perpetuate into North America in the coming week
• No
  serious change in the general precipitation outlook is expected by World Weather, Inc.
  

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

• Northeast
  and east central Argentina, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul into Santa Catarina and southeastern Parana get all of the rain coming up while net drying occurs elsewhere

 

EUROPE

• France
  will continue lacking rain along with parts of Germany over the coming ten days
• Some
  rain has been suggested for eastern Ukraine in today’s forecasts for late this week and that is a change from Monday
• Some
  follow up showers have been suggested for late next week by the Canadian model, but confidence is very low for that change
• Russia’s
  Southern Region and the southern Balkan Countries will continue drier biased

 

CHINA

• Not
  much change in the models today – it is all about the tropical cyclones in northeastern China
• Northeastern
  China will get excessive rain from Typhoon Maysak Thursday and Friday with flooding likely
• Northeastern
  China “may” also be impacted by another typhoon or its remnants late this weekend and early next week, but confidence in that event is low today
• If
  both storms impact northeastern China some crop damage will come to the region because of excessive moisture and flooding
• Delays
  in crop maturation and harvesting will also be a serious threat
• East-central
  and interior southeastern China will experience a favorable drying environment over the coming week to ten days
  

 

INDIA

• No
  changes overnight
• Northern
  India will be rainy for the next several days and then trend drier next week
• Some
  concern over cotton quality will remain in the north
• Gujarat,
  western Rajasthan and central and southern Pakistan will be drying out in the coming week
• Monsoonal
  rains will begin drawing in the north next week

 

AUSTRALIA

• No
  change
• Rain
  will continue mostly confined to the south coast and lower east coast
• Queensland
  drought will remain a threat to reproduction
• Rain
  is still needed in South Australia and northern Western Australia as well

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
SEPT. 1:

• Australia
  commodity index
• U.S.
  Purdue agriculture sentiment
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm