FI Morning Grain Comments 09/01/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

Soybeans
are lower led by Nov, meal lower and soybean oil higher.  Corn is lower form a less than expected drop in US crop ratings.  Wheat turned mostly lower on global crop concerns and dryness across the US Great Plains.  U.S. Delta will receive additional rain this
week keeping producers out of the fields while drier weather will occur in the Midwest and Delta late this week.  AmSpec reported August palm exports fell 15.1 percent from the previous month.  After a one-day holiday, palm oil rallied about 44 points and
cash was up $13.50/ton. Indonesia’s 2020 palm production was seen at 46.02 million tons, a sharp decline from 47.11MMT in 2019.  Exports were projected to fall 18 percent from 2019, according to GAPKI.  Ukraine’s deputy minister projected sunflower production
down 8.5 percent to 14 million tons from 15.3 million in 2019.   Japan seeks 106,937 tons of food wheat later this week for arrival by December 31. South Korea’s MFG passed on feed wheat.  APK-Inform estimated Ukraine’s corn crop could fall 8 percent to 35.1
million tons. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

NORTH
AMERICA

• Cooling
  is expected in waves from late this week through next week
• Frost
  and a few freezes are expected in Canada’s Prairies and the north-central U.S. with frost most likely in the U.S.
  
• Details
  about the cold will come a little later this week, but the event is quite likely to occur because of notable changes occurring over the northwestern Pacific Ocean and a chain reaction that will perpetuate into North America in the coming week
• No
  serious change in the general precipitation outlook is expected by World Weather, Inc.
  

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

• Northeast
  and east central Argentina, Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul into Santa Catarina and southeastern Parana get all of the rain coming up while net drying occurs elsewhere

 

EUROPE

• France
  will continue lacking rain along with parts of Germany over the coming ten days
• Some
  rain has been suggested for eastern Ukraine in today’s forecasts for late this week and that is a change from Monday
• Some
  follow up showers have been suggested for late next week by the Canadian model, but confidence is very low for that change
• Russia’s
  Southern Region and the southern Balkan Countries will continue drier biased

 

CHINA

• Not
  much change in the models today – it is all about the tropical cyclones in northeastern China
• Northeastern
  China will get excessive rain from Typhoon Maysak Thursday and Friday with flooding likely
• Northeastern
  China “may” also be impacted by another typhoon or its remnants late this weekend and early next week, but confidence in that event is low today
• If
  both storms impact northeastern China some crop damage will come to the region because of excessive moisture and flooding
• Delays
  in crop maturation and harvesting will also be a serious threat
• East-central
  and interior southeastern China will experience a favorable drying environment over the coming week to ten days
  

 

INDIA

• No
  changes overnight
• Northern
  India will be rainy for the next several days and then trend drier next week
• Some
  concern over cotton quality will remain in the north
• Gujarat,
  western Rajasthan and central and southern Pakistan will be drying out in the coming week
• Monsoonal
  rains will begin drawing in the north next week

 

AUSTRALIA

• No
  change
• Rain
  will continue mostly confined to the south coast and lower east coast
• Queensland
  drought will remain a threat to reproduction
• Rain
  is still needed in South Australia and northern Western Australia as well

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
SEPT. 1:

• Australia
  commodity index
• U.S.
  Purdue agriculture sentiment
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• FO
  Licht’s virtual Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo (Sept. 1-3)
• Cotton
  outlook update by International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Honduras,
  Costa Rica coffee exports
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for August 1-31

WEDNESDAY,
SEPT. 2:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• UkrAgroConsult’s
  Black Sea Grain Conference in Kyiv (Sept. 2-3)
• Russia’s
  Agriculture Ministry holds annual conference to discuss production and the industry
• HOLIDAY:
  Vietnam

THURSDAY,
SEPT. 3:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand commodity price

FRIDAY,
SEPT. 4:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• CNGOIC’s
  monthly supply-demand report on Chinese feed grains and oilseeds
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Statcan’s
  data on Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum stocks
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat         
516,131         versus   400000-700000  range

Corn             
402,216         versus   800000-1100000                range

Soybeans   
804,591         versus   650000-1000000                range

 

Macros

Brent
Crude Oil Seen Averaging $42.75/Barrel In 2020 (Versus $41.50 In July Poll) – RTRS Poll

US
Crude Oil Seen Averaging $38.82/Barrel In 2020 (Versus $37.51 In July Poll)

 

 

Corn.

• December
  corn futures hit
  a one-week low from a less than expected drop in US crop ratings. 
• APK-Inform
  estimated Ukraine’s corn crop could fall 8 percent to 35.1 million tons.  Exports are seen at 28.5MMT, down 3 percent from 2019-20.
  
• Brazil
  failed to renew their zero-tariff ethanol import quota that will be a blow to US ethanol exporters.  It will revert to 20% starting today. 
  
• Indonesia
  plans to cull 4.4 million chickens by September 13 to support depressed egg prices. 
  
• USDA
  US corn export inspections as of August 27, 2020 were 402,216 tons, well below a range of trade expectations, below 892,031 tons previous week and compares to 357,783 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 198,052 tons, China Main for 137,151 tons,
  and Japan for 22,058 tons.

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters sold 596,000 tons of corn to China, identical to yesterday’s announcement. 
  

 

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  November soybeans are seeing follow through selling, meal lower and soybean oil higher.  Offshore values are helping dictate the direction for the products. 
  

• Ukraine’s
  deputy minister projected sunflower production down 8.5 percent to 14 million tons from 15.3 million in 2019.  
  APK-Inform
  reported earlier that Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices appreciated by $15-$25 per ton over the past week. 
  
• An
  increase in rain forecast for later this week for the WCB will be too late to boost crop conditions. 
  
• U.S.
  Delta will receive additional rain this week keeping producers out of the fields while drier weather will occur in the Midwest and Delta late this week. 
  
• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 25 higher and meal $4.90
  lower. 
• Rotterdam
  soybean oil values were 5 euros lower, rapeseed oil down about 10 euros in the benchmark position, and Rotterdam meal down 1-4 euros from this time yesterday morning. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 83 cents per bushel (92 previous) and compares to 90 cents a week ago and 72 cents around this time last year.
  

• AmSpec
  reported August palm exports fell 15.1 percent from the previous month to 1.476MMT from 1.740MMT.  ITS reported a 13.1 percent decline to 1.491 million tons.   
  
• Indonesia’s
  2020 palm production was seen at 46.02 million tons, a sharp decline from 47.11MMT in 2019.  Exports were projected to fall 18 percent from 2019, according to GAPKI. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil:  near 7-monthg high.  After a one-day holiday:

• US
  soybean oil for biodiesel production came in at our expectation, and we still look for use to end up 75 million pounds above USDA (see attached monthly soybean oil balance). 
  
• USDA
  US soybean export inspections as of August 27, 2020 were 804,591 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,223,251 tons previous week and compares to 1,290,414 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 469,702 tons, Mexico for 93,377
  tons, and Spain for 52,041 tons.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour reporting system, private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Algeria seeks 30,000 tons of soybean meal for shipment by September 25, optional origin. 
  

 

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  is mostly lower despite global crop concerns and dryness across the US Great Plains.  Japan seeks 106,937 tons of food wheat later this week for arrival by December 31. South Korea’s MFG passed on feed wheat. 
  
• China
  suspended barley imports from Australia’s CBH group, the countries largest exporter. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was unchanged at 185.50 euros. 
• USDA
  US all-wheat export inspections as of August 27, 2020 were 516,131 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 569,593 tons previous week and compares to 558,523 tons year ago. Major countries included Nigeria for 82,513 tons, Vietnam for 71,840 tons,
  and Indonesia for 66,653 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

• South Korea
  MFG passed on 70,000 tons of feed wheat for late Dec and/or early Jan shipment.  Lowest offer was believed to be $249.80 a ton c&f. 
  
• Japan seeks 106,937
  tons of food wheat later this week for arrival by December 31.

• Results awaited:
  Syria looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  
• Algeria seeks wheat
  on Sep 2 for October shipment. 
• Jordan issued another
  import tender for 120,0,00 tons of wheat set to close Sep 2. 
• Syria seeks 200,000
  tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.

 

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea bought 60,556 tons of rice for Dec 31-Feb 28 delivery from Vietnam and India. 

·        
US rice traded higher on US crop concerns