FI Morning Grain Comments 08/28/20

Aug 28, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning. 

 

US
export developments slowed late this week as futures prices are up a good amount week over week.  Today is position day.  USD is under major pressure this morning.  Look for meal/oil correction today if general agriculture prices correct.  We look for US corn
conditions to decline 3 points, soybeans down 2, and spring wheat unchanged, when updated on Monday.  BA Grain Exchange warned Argentina wheat yields could fall as much as 50 percent in the northern and central crop areas from frost, dryness, and insects. 

 

FND
Delivery estimates:

Oil
1500-2500

Meal
150-300

Beans
0-25

Corn
0

Wheat
0-75

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

            A
poor rain distribution in the western Corn Belt will maintain downward pressure on soybean yield potentials. Showers in other parts of the Midwest may offer at least some temporary relief, but a general soaking is unlikely for a while. Cooler temperatures
will be extremely helpful in slowing the decline in crop conditions, but without significant rain the decline in yield will continue for the driest areas.

            Southern
Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will likely continue drier biased stressing some late season coarse grain and oilseed crops, but right now crop maturation is the priority and dry conditions are best for that. Ontario and Quebec corn and
soybeans are in good condition as they are in parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

            Not
much change was noted for Europe during the weekend or for the coming ten days, but dryness will prevail in central and eastern Ukraine, the lower Danube River Basin and Russia’s Southern Region. Improving weather will occur in Russia’s New Lands protecting
some of the sunseed crop.

            China
weather will trend drier in some east-central areas and that will be a welcome change. Typhoon Bavi brought significant rain to Northeast China Wednesday and Thursday. Northeastern China needs to dry down and should do so for a while, but another tropical
cyclone may impact the region late next week raising more concern over excessive moisture.

            India’s
excessive rain in northwestern peanut, sorghum and soybean production areas earlier this week may have damaged some crops, but the losses should be low. Weather conditions are now improving. Another wave of less intensive rain will impact the same areas this
weekend and Monday returning some flood conditions, but improved weather is expected thereafter.

            Australia
is drying out in the west where canola will soon need some moisture. Canola elsewhere in the nation remains favorably rated.

            Brazil
corn planting and replanting conditions will be very good over the next ten days as dry weather prevails. Argentina rainfall in the northeast next week may improve some pre-planting soil moisture for corn and sunseed, but much more rain is needed throughout
the nation.

            Harvest
weather in Europe will be good in the dry areas and slow in other areas. Dryness in eastern Ukraine, eastern Bulgaria, Romania and Russia’s Southern Region has reduced production for this year.

            Overall,
weather today will likely continue to provide bullish bias, but its influence will begin to soften with the onset of cooler temperatures, but rain is still needed and crops will remain stressed until significant rain falls.

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
August 28:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

MONDAY,
AUG. 31:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
  • Statcan
    data for Canada wheat, barley, soy, canola and durum production
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Holiday:
    U.K., Malaysia

TUESDAY,
SEPT. 1:

  • Australia
    commodity index
  • U.S.
    Purdue agriculture sentiment
  • USDA
    soybean crush, 3pm
  • U.S.
    corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
  • FO
    Licht’s virtual Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo (Sept. 1-3)
  • Cotton
    outlook update by International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for August 1-31

WEDNESDAY,
SEPT. 2:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • UkrAgroConsult’s
    Black Sea Grain Conference in Kyiv (Sept. 2-3)
  • Russia’s
    Agriculture Ministry holds annual conference to discuss production and the industry
  • HOLIDAY:
    Vietnam

THURSDAY,
SEPT. 3:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price