FI Morning Grain Comments 08/17/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 

US
weather will be dry this week.  Ukraine will see increasing crop stress and China’s grain production is expected to drop from record 2019 output.  Under the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 130,000 tons of HRW wheat to unknown.   NOPA is
due out later today (estimates below), along with inspections and crop progress (expect a large decline in IA and IL corn conditions).  Algeria is in for 50,000 tons of milling wheat and Egypt is in for vegetable oils.  AmSpec reported Malaysia palm oil exports
during the Aug 1-15 period at 694,292 tons, down 16.3% from 829,294 tons exported in July 1-15.  ITS reported a 16.5% decrease to 694,402 tons from 831,115 tons during FH July.  
CBOT soybean registrations were down 84 with Zen-Noh Grain registering 74 and Consolidated cancelling 158.  There were 87 soybean deliveries with Term stopping 62.  Soybean oil registrations
were up 48 (Volga, SD) and deliveries were 57 with Bunge stopping all of them.  CBOT soybean meal deliveries were 148.  China pig herd in July was up 13.1 percent form year ago. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
August 17:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
• U.S.
  monthly green coffee stockpile data from Green Coffee Association
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

TUESDAY,
August 18:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

WEDNESDAY,
August 19:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• ISO
  online conference on Sugar and Health
• USDA
  total milk production

THURSDAY,
August 20:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Brazil
  Conab sugar, cane and ethanol production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• China
  International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia
• EARNINGS:
  Cherkizovo

FRIDAY,
August 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• China
  International Cereals and Oils Industry Summit, day 2
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for August 1-20
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of Traders

-No
major surprises

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Empire Manufacturing Aug: 3.7 (exp 15.0; prev 17.2)

 

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures hit
  a one-month high Sunday into Monday on US and China crop concerns. 
• Short
  covering was a feature.  USD was trading 14 points lower earlier. 
• IA
  seeks around 4 billion USD in disaster aid after the derecho storm.  37.7 million acres of farmland across the Midwest, including 14 million in Iowa, was impacted by the storm. 
  
• Ukraine
  will see warm temperatures and little precipitation this week. 
• Drought
  and heavy rains are negatively impacting China’s grain production with some areas seeing a reduction in output as much as ten percent from the previous year.  It’s difficult to peg a number for the China grain crop but traders should be monitoring upcoming
  changes in government estimates. 
• China
  pig herd in July was up 13.1 percent form year ago.  This is the first year on year increase since April 2018.
  
• China
  government think tank:  China’s food supply gap may reach 130 million tons by end of 2025.  China’s arable land use rose by 15.7% from 1981 to 2016, and could increase another 14% by 2032, when the population is expected to peak- China Institute of Water Resources
  and Hydropower Research. 
• China’s
  chicken production continues to expand as ASF hit hog production.  USDA predicts an 18 percent increase in 2020 chicken production to a record 14.85 million tons from last year. 
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
None reported

 

Soybean
complex.

• Soybeans
  are higher on US crop concerns and a weather outlook that looks dry for the US over the next 7 days.  
  
• The
  ProFarmer Crop Tour starts this week. 
• We
  get NOPA July crush estimate at 11 am CT. 
• CBOT
  soybean registrations were down 84 with Zen-Noh Grain registering 74 and Consolidated cancelling 158.  There were 87 soybean deliveries with Term stopping 62.  Soybean oil registrations were up 48 (Volga, SD) and deliveries were 57 with Bunge stopping all
  of them.  Soybean meal deliveries were 148. 
• Egypt
  is in for vegetable oils. 
• We
  heard China bought up to 25 soybean cargoes last week, down from about 50 previous week.
  
• Rotterdam
  values this morning showed soybean oil for the Sep/Oct position was unchanged from this time previous session, rapeseed oil up 3 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America up 1-2 euros higher.  
  

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 35 higher and meal $1.10
  higher. 
• China
  cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 136 cents per bushel, and compares to 133 cents a week ago and 89 cents around this time last year.
  

·        
Palm oil:  Foreign worker ban continues to hit palm oil production. Prices higher Monday on higher US soybean oil. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

·        
Egypt’s GASC seeks at least 30,000 tons of soybean oil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on Tuesday for Oct 25-Nov 20 shipment. 

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures
  are higher despite another upward revision to the Russian grain crop. 
• IKAR
  increased their view of the Russia wheat crop to 82 million tons from 81 million previous. 
  
• IKAR:
  Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $201 a ton free on board (FOB) for supply in August-September at the end of last week, down $4 from the week before. 
  
• Australia’s
  Grain Industry Association GIWA expects Western Australia wheat crop up 63 percent from 2019 to 8.89 million tons. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was up 0.75 euros at 181.00.

 

Export
Developments.

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 130,000 tons of HRW wheat to unknown.
  
• Algeria
  seeks at least 50,000 tons of milling wheat on August 18 for Sep shipment. 
  
• Pakistan
  seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Turkey
  seeks 390,000 tons of red milling wheat and 110,000 tons of durum wheat on August 25.   They also seeks feed barley. 
  
• Red
  wheat shipment period is between Sep 4 and Oct 10
• Durum
  shipment period is between Sept. 15 and Oct. 10.
• Feed
  barley shipment period is between Sept. 11 and Sept. 25.
• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  
• Syria
  seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.