FI Morning Grain Comments 08/14/20

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Morning. 
USDA reported another 2 cargoes of soybeans to China.  Profit taking in focus. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

WEATHER
TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND

 

• The
  Tropics and Subtropics should be closely monitored
• We
  are quickly moving into the a more favored period for tropical cyclone development; the most favored period for storm development will occur next week through the end of this month
• Tropical
  Storm Josephine will not be a threat to the United States
• It
  remains several hundred miles east southeast of the northern Leeward Islands today and it will pass to the northeast of the Antilles and Bahamas this weekend and early next week
• The
  system will weaken late Saturday into early next week and may dissipate well east of the U.S.
  
• A
  pair of mid-latitude low pressure centers moving off the middle U.S. Atlantic Coast will have potential for development into tropical or subtropical cyclones
  
• The
  first low pressure system comes off the North Carolina coast today and the second comes off the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday
  
• A
  trough of low pressure expected to be over the southeastern U.S. next week may breed a low pressure center just off the central or northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coast during the middle to latter part of next week and that system will need to be closely monitored
  for development as well
• The
  favorable tropical cyclone formation potential will shift farther to the east into the Atlantic Ocean in the week of August 24

 

• A
  monsoon low pressure center in the northern Bay of Bengal may attempt to develop a little more before move from the upper east coast of India to Rajasthan and Gujarat next week
  
• This
  system could produce excessive rain a part of eastern and central India next week
• A
  second monsoon low may evolve late next week and into the week of Aug. 24 producing additional excessive rainfall

 

• India’s
  potential for flooding in central parts of the nation will increase greatly next week and through the following weekend due to the monsoon lows noted above
  
• The
  greatest rain will be falling a week from now and into the week of Aug. 24
• Madhya
  Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and southern Rajasthan may be most at risk of flood damage, but it is too soon to get any more details

 

• U.S.
  outlook continues to trend drier for the second half of this month and possibly extending into early September
  
• Most
  forecast models have toned down the rainfall outlook for the Midwest and Great Plains over the past couple of days
  
• The
  GFS is still wettest and probably too wet
• Net
  drying is expected in the heart of the Midwest and in much of the Great Plains with parts of the Delta also expecting only a restricted amount of rain as time moves along
• The
  wettest areas in the U.S over the next ten days will be in the southeastern states from Virginia to Florida where frequent rain is expected and moderate to some locally heavy amounts expected
• The
  far northern parts of the Midwest will also experience some significant rain periodically
• The
  environment is not unusual for late summer and still fits in with what is considered mostly normal summer weather; however, with the active tropical season to influence North America soon the drying bias may fester for “some” areas long enough to raise a little
  late season soybean and sorghum stress especially in the areas that are already a little dry
• Milder
  temperatures during the next couple of weeks will slow some of the drying, but it is still the middle of summer and “normal” usually promotes net drying
• The
  U.S. weather pattern dominating through the end of August may prevail into September as well with a few “brief” interludes of somewhat warmer and a little wetter conditions

 

• West
  Texas was hot again Thursday with highest temperatures of 100 to 112 from southern Oklahoma and southern parts of the Texas Panhandle southward into Mexico

 

• West
  Texas will get some showers and thunderstorms periodically during the coming week, but they will be brief and light failing to soak the region and failing to change soil or crop conditions by much
• Sufficient
  moisture will be present late this weekend into next week to help keep temperatures from becoming excessively hot
• Highest
  temperatures into Saturday will range from 95 to 108 degrees Fahrenheit
• Temperatures
  will not be quite as warm late in the coming weekend or next week due to some higher relative humidity and a few showers
  
• High
  temperatures may slip to the upper 80s and 90s

 

• U.S.
  northwestern Plains and southwestern Canada’s Prairies will not receive much rain for the next ten days favoring harvest progress for early season crops, but stressing some of the late season crops

 

• Eastern
  Saskatchewan and western Manitoba received some needed rain Thursday and overnight to ease dryness and benefit some of the region’s corn, soybeans, flax and late season canola
• Rain
  totals reached 1.00 to 2.00 inches in southwestern Manitoba and to 1.18 inches in southeastern Manitoba while up to 0.62 inch occurred elsewhere
• Rain
  will fall additionally in southeastern Manitoba today and early Saturday and then drier weather is expected for a while

 

• Western
  and northern Alberta and far northwestern Saskatchewan remain favorably moist while much of central, west-central, southwestern and south-central Saskatchewan along with southern Alberta remains too dry
• Dryness
  in the central and southwestern Prairies is promoting early season crop maturation and harvest progress, but rain is needed in some areas for late season crops