FI Morning Grain Comments 08/13/21

PDF attached

 

 

Good
morning.

 

New
contract highs in Paris wheat and Malaysian palm oil are spilling into CBOT ags.  Look for the trade to shift away from focusing on the weather for corn, but for beans it appears the US will be in good shape for the remainder of the month as cooler air settles
in across the Midwest for the next several days after a series of rain events boosting moisture countering net drying.   There were no major announcements in crop tenders since the USDA report.  Traders will continue to digest the numbers.  FSA prevented plantings
released yesterday suggest higher plantings for US corn and soybeans but its early to determine abandonment for summer crops. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 13, 2021

• Little
  change was noted around the world overnight.
• The
  06z GFS model run has started very late and is only out six days at the time of this email
• Tropical
  Depression Fred will become a tropical storm later today and bring heavy rain to southern Florida this weekend and to northwestern Florida, eastern Alabama and western Georgia early next week.
  
• No
  crop damage of significance is expected.
• Another
  tropical system will evolve near the Lesser Antilles this weekend.
• A
  new heatwave is expected in Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains this weekend with highs in the 90s to over 100 Fahrenheit expected.
  
• The
  heat will shift to eastern Canada, the U.S. Great Lakes region and northeastern states next week.
  
• A
  few strong to severe thunderstorms will evolve during mid-week next week in the northern U.S. Plains, upper Midwest and Manitoba, Canada.
  
• Australia
  weather will be tranquil through the next week to ten days with only brief bouts of light rain in the south
• South
  Africa will get some needed rain this weekend favoring better wheat conditions in Free State3
• India
  is facing another monsoon depression that will bring heavy rain to central parts of the nation next week.
  
• Southern
  China will get flooding rain over the next week to ten days
• Europe
  will see some favorable harvest conditions, although dryness in southeastern parts of the continent will hurt summer crops.
  
• Drying
  will continue in Kazakhstan and some neighboring areas of Russia. 

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Aug. 13:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• EARNINGS:
  Olam, Golden Agri

Monday,
Aug. 16:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Argentina

Tuesday,
Aug. 17:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Wednesday,
Aug. 18:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• China’s
  second batch of July trade data for commodities, including corn, wheat, sugar and pork

Thursday,
Aug. 19:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases sugar and cane production data (tentative)
• USDA
  total milk, read meat production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Friday,
Aug. 20:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  country-wise import data for farm goods such as soybeans, corn and pork
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia
  Aug. 1-20 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  Cattle on Feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Jul: 0.3% (est 0.6%; prevR 1.1%; prev 1.0%)

US
Export Price Index (M/M) Jul: 1.3% (est 0.8%; prev 1.2%)

US
Export Price Index (Y/Y) Jul: 17.2% (prev 16.8%)

 

 

Corn

• US
  corn is
  higher following higher wheat and soybeans.
• There
  is little news so some are attributing the higher trade to follow through buying from USDA’s bullish supply and demand report, indicating stocks to use will remain below 10 percent next season. 
  

 

 

Export
developments.

• China
  auctioned off 36,789 tons of imported Ukrainian corn and 265,667 tons of imported US corn.  They sold 36.8k and 266k respectively. 
  

• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

 

Soybeans

• Soybeans
  are higher in part to higher outside related markets. 
• Offshore
  values are leading soybean oil 46 points lower and meal $2.50 higher. 
• European
  vegetable oil values were higher this morning.  Rotterdam soybean meal were about 2-11 euros higher. 
  
• Malaysia
  palm oil futures hit a fresh contract high.   

• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 87 cents on our analysis (94 previous) versus 80 cents late last week and 136 cents around a year ago. 
  
• China

• Trade
  estimates will be released later today for NOPA, due out Monday.  We are at 160.0 million bushels for the soybean crush and 1.505 billion for stocks, compared to 152.4 million during June and 1.537 billion stocks previous month.  For other trade guesses, we
  heard as high as 162 and low as 158, and stocks below 1.450 billion. 
• Note
  the Pro Farmer crop tour starts Tuesday, Aug 17, lasting until Friday the 20th. 
  

 

Export
Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour USDA announcement system, private exporters sold:
• Export
  sales of 326,200 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations.  Of the total, 200 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year and 326,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022
  marketing year; and
• Export
  sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year.
• USDA
  On August 17 seeks 290,000 tons of veg oil for use in export programs. 210 tons in 4-liter cans and 80 tons in 4-liter cans or plastic bottles, for shipment Sep16 to Oct 15 (Oct 1-31 for plants at ports).
  
• South
  Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 3,700 tons of non-GMO soybeans on August 19 for arrival between Oct. 20 and Nov. 19.

 

 

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat is higher on EU quality concerns (Paris futures sharply higher) and follow through buying from yesterday’s USDA report. 
  
• There
  were no major export developments reported as of Friday morning. 
• Paris
  December wheat hit a fresh contract high.  It was up 7.25 as of early this morning at 256.00. 
  

 

Export
Developments. 

• Japan
  (SBS) seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on August 18 for loading by November 30. 
  
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on August 18. 
• Morocco
  seeks 363,000 tons of US durum wheat under a tariff import quota on August 24 for shipment by December 31. 
  
• Pakistan
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on August 23 for Sep/Oct shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported