PDF attached

 

USDA
reported big soybean and sorghum export sales.  Additional soybeans were reported under the 24-hour plus 110,000 tons of corn.  Follow through short covering spilled over into the Thursday trade for soybeans and corn.  Strength in soybean meal is supporting
soybeans while keeping soybean oil at bay despite another rally in Asian vegetable oils.  China palm oil was up sharply and Malaysia was up 28MYR with cash appreciating $14.00/ton.  Wheat is finding a little support from higher corn and bottom picking.  China
sold all of its 3.994MMT corn offered at auction.  Taiwan’s MFIG passed on corn overnight and South Korea’s NOFI passed on 69k of corn.  Perhaps they want to see lower global cash prices.  Iran passed on corn and bought an unknown volume of soybean meal Egypt
is in for wheat today and lowest offer is $204.90/ton.  . 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

See
PDF for weather text………….

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
August 13:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices
  • EARNINGS:
    JBS, Olam

FRIDAY,
August 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • EARNINGS:
    Golden Agri-Resources

SATURDAY,
August 15:

  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Aug 1-15 from AmSpec

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

exceeded expectations for old crop soybeans and new-crop topped 2.8 million tons, well above expectations.  Soybean meal export sales were within expectations.  Soybean oil was negative 2,500 tons for old crop but new-crop was very good at 48,300
tons.  Corn export sales were within expectations.  All-wheat of nearly 368,000 tons were ok.  Sorghum export sales were excellent at 282,400 tons an included a large portion for China. 
New-crop-sorghum were a whopping 527,500 tons including 348,000 tons for China.  Pork sales were 10,500 tons. 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

Corn.

 

USDA
Attaché on China pork production 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock%20and%20Products%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_08-15-2019

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
Under the 24-hour USDA export sales reporting system, private exporters reported the following activity:  Export sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.  Of the total, 30,000 metric tons is for
delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 80,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 

·        
Israel passed on about 200,000 tons of corn but bought an unknown amount of soybean meal.  They were in for 350,000 tons of soybean meal.

·        
Taiwan’s MFIG passed on up to 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for October 28-Nov 16 shipment.  Lowest offer was believed to be for Argentine corn at an estimated premium of 186.50 U.S. cents a bushel c&f over the Chicago March
2021 corn contract. 

·        
South Korea’s NOFI group passed on 69,000 tons of corn. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

·        
Palm oil

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

·        
Israel passed on about 200,000 tons of corn but bought an unknown amount of soybean meal.  They were in for 350,000 tons of soybean meal.

·        
Under the 24-hour USDA export sales reporting system, private exporters reported the following activity:

o  
Export sales of 197,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year

o  
Export sales of 202,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat futures

    are higher from bottom picking and higher corn. 
  • All-wheat
    of nearly 368,000 tons were ok. 
  • German
    agricultural cooperatives group DRV lowered German wheat production to 21.5MMT tons, down from July’s estimate of 22.5MMT, in large part to a lower estimate of the planted acreage from Germany’s statistics office, with winter-wheat acreage now seen down about
    10% from last year. 
  • Australia
    will see rain through Saturday for New South Wales and Victoria, and parts of southern Queensland, eastern South Australia, and southwestern Western Australia. 
  • Paris
    December wheat was down 0.25 euro at 177.50.  

 

Export
Developments.

  • Egypt
    seeks wheat and lowest offer was $204.90/ton for Russian wheat.
  • Pakistan
    seeks 1.5 million tons of wheat on August 18. 
  • Syria
    looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of soft wheat from EU/Russia on Sept. 9 and 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia on Sept. 14.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on August 17 for October through December delivery. 

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 60,556 tons of rice from Vietnam and other origins, on Aug. 19, for arrival in South Korea between Dec. 31, 2020, and February 28, 2021.

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/6/2020                        




























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

WHEAT

THOUSAND METRIC TONS      

   HRW    

24.1

1,558.3

1,406.6

192.9

2,263.0

2,385.9

0.0

0.0

   SRW    

14.0

678.3

696.4

39.7

351.0

535.5

0.0

0.0

   HRS     

170.7

1,853.0

1,578.6

169.7

1,325.0

1,040.0

0.0

5.0

   WHITE   

147.6

1,318.2

1,011.2

44.2

848.0

747.8

0.0

0.0

   DURUM  

11.5

187.0

334.4

21.5

209.3

90.6

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

367.9

5,594.9

5,027.3

468.0

4,996.3

4,799.8

0.0

5.0

BARLEY

0.0

31.4

47.2

5.1

7.8

9.5

0.0

0.0

CORN

377.2

4,137.9

2,592.8

1,333.1

40,021.9

47,391.2

553.1

11,480.3

SORGHUM

282.4

342.2

138.4

479.2

4,291.5

1,589.2

527.5

1,723.1

SOYBEANS

570.1

6,445.9

5,647.9

1,103.9

41,064.8

42,944.3

2,839.4

17,975.5

SOY MEAL

182.4

1,652.0

1,831.8

196.5

10,305.5

9,974.8

70.0

1,055.4

SOY OIL

-2.5

177.7

155.6

11.9

1,089.2

721.4

48.7

80.7

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

0.3

164.8

259.5

4.4

4.4

50.5

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

28.2

27.7

0.7

0.7

1.1

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.0

8.9

1.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

30.9

0.1

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

4.6

38.7

230.4

3.4

3.4

34.3

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

1.3

65.9

99.5

4.5

4.5

27.8

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

6.3

337.2

618.8

14.7

14.7

114.4

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

 

   UPLAND

6.9

6,288.5

7,427.8

278.6

278.6

346.9

8.8

316.2

   PIMA

10.4

172.9

139.1

5.6

5.6

14.7

0.0

0.0

 














FINAL 2019/20 MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

CARRYOVER

SALES 1/

07/31/2020

EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED

EXPORTS

   PIMA

-0.4

116.4

3.7

486.6

COTTON

 

 

 

 

   UPLAND

1.4

2,883.2

43.6

14,174.5

RICE

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

0.0

93.3

0.0

1,329.4

   M S RGH

0.0

23.2

0.0

73.2

   L G BRN

0.1

9.6

0.1

59.5

   M&S BR

0.0

31.7

0.0

87.7

   L G MLD

2.1

36.1

2.3

900.2

   M S MLD

3.5

65.3

3.5

686.5

     TOTAL

5.7

259.1

5.9

3,136.5

                                                                                                                                 

 Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period July 31-August 6, 2020.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 367,900 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (117,900 MT), Japan (68,600 MT), the Philippines (66,800 MT), Brazil (63,300 MT,
including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Italy (33,600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (52,400 MT).  Exports of 468,000 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (90,800 MT), Japan (86,000 MT), China (63,000 MT), Nigeria (49,900 MT), and Mexico (42,500 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 377,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (125,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT),
Japan (79,300 MT, including decreases of 4,600 MT), China (76,500 MT), Colombia (60,700 MT, including 42,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, decreases of 2,700 MT, and 13,800 MT late – see below), and Venezuela (59,100 MT, including 29,100 MT late –
see below), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (97,000 MT) and Nicaragua (9,000 MT). For 2020/2021, net sales of 553,100 MT primarily for Colombia (176,500 MT), Mexico (165,200 MT), unknown destinations (129,700 MT), Peru (50,000
MT), and Taiwan (10,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (1,500 MT).  Exports of 1,333,100 MT were up 95 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (396,600 MT), Mexico
(225,800 MT), Colombia (167,300 MT, including 13,800 MT late – see below), Japan (163,900 MT, including 28,200 MT late – see below), and South Korea (125,100 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales: 
For 2019/2020, options were exercised to export 65,000 MT to South Korea from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 390,000 MT is for South Korea (260,000 MT), Vietnam (65,000 MT), and Taiwan (65,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding
balance of 260,000 MT is for Vietnam (195,000 MT) and South Korea (65,000 MT).

Late
Reporting:
  For 2019/2020,
net sales totaling 42,900 MT were reported late.  These sales were reported for Venezuela (29,100 MT) and Colombia (13,800 MT).  For 2019/2020, exports totaling 71,100 MT were reported late.  The destinations were to Venezuela (29,100 MT), Japan (28,200 MT),
and Colombia (13,800 MT).

Barley: 
No net sales for 2020/2021 were reported for the week.  Exports of 5,100 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was Japan.

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 282,400 MT for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (348,300 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, decreases of 65,000 MT, and 336,300 MT late
– see below), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (66,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 527,500 MT were reported for China (348,000 MT) and unknown destinations (179,500 MT).  Exports of 479,200 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably
from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was China (including 407,800 MT late – see below).

Late
Reporting:
  For 2019/2020,
net sales totaling 336,300 MT were reported late.  These sales were reported for China.  For 2019/2020, exports to China (407,800 MT) were reported late.

Rice:
 Net sales of 6,300 MT were reported for 2020/2021, which began August 1.  Increases primarily for Mexico (2,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,600 MT), Canada (1,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Israel (600 MT), and Singapore (200 MT), were offset by reductions
primarily for the Dominican Republic (200 MT) and the Netherlands (100 MT).  A total of 259,100 MT in sales were outstanding on July 31, and carried over to 2020/2021.  Accumulated exports in 2019/2020 totaled 3,136,500 MT were up 2 percent from the prior
year’s total of 3,078,300 MT.  Exports for 2019/2020 totaled 5,900 MT and were primarily to Saudi Arabia (2,600 MT), Israel (1,400 MT), Qatar (700 MT), Canada (600 MT), and Mexico (300 MT). 

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 570,100 MT for 2019/2020 were up 65 percent from the previous week and 96 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (420,500 MT, including decreases of 2,000 MT, and 354,800 MT late – see below), the Netherlands (144,300
MT, including 137,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), Japan (64,500 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), Egypt (49,600 MT, including 52,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), and Taiwan (20,300
MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (191,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 2,839,400 MT were primarily for China (1,705,000 MT), unknown destinations (872,500 MT), Mexico (74,800 MT), Portugal (49,000 MT), and Taiwan (43,000
MT).  Exports of 1,103,900 MT were up 36 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (630,400 MT, including 354,800 late – see below), the Netherlands (144,300 MT), Mexico (123,200
MT), Egypt (49,600 MT), and Japan (38,700 MT, including 10,100 MT late – see below
). 

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2019/2020, new exports for own account were for Canada (59,500 MT).  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 61,600 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting:
  For 2019/2020,
net sales totaling 355,800 MT were reported late.  These sales were reported for China (354,800 MT) and the Philippines (1,000 MT).  For 2019/2020, exports totaling 365,300 MT were reported late.  The destinations were to China (354,800 MT), Japan (10,100
MT), and the Philippines (400 MT).

Soybean
Cake and Meal
:  Net
sales of 182,400 MT for 2019/2020 were up 75 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (95,700 MT), Mexico (24,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (16,000 MT, including decreases
of 3,000 MT), Peru (12,000 MT), and Indonesia (11,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala (4,900 MT), Costa Rica (1,900 MT), Belgium (1,700 MT), Jamaica (1,100 MT), and El Salvador (900 MT). 
For 2020/2021, net sales
of 70,000 MT primarily for El Salvador (18,000 MT), Colombia (18,000 MT), Mexico (15,900 MT), Canada (6,200 MT), and Panama (6,000 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (2,200 MT).  Exports of 196,500 MT were down 15 percent from the previous
week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (35,700 MT), Canada (35,600 MT), Mexico (34,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (24,500 MT), and Panama (16,400 MT).

Late
Reporting:
  For 2019/2020,
net sales totaling 400 MT were reported late.  These sales were reported for the Philippines.  For 2019/2020, exports totaling 800 MT were reported late.  The destination was the Philippines.

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales reductions
of 2,500 MT for 2019/2020–a marketing-year low–reported for the Dominican Republic (7,100 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), and Canada (200 MT), were more than offset by reductions for Guatemala (12,000 MT).  For 2020/2021, net sales of 48,700 MT were for South Korea
(28,000 MT), Guatemala (18,000 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT).  Exports of 11,900 MT were down 75 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (9,700 MT), Mexico (1,800 MT), and Canada
(400 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales for 2020/2021, which began August 1, totaled 6,900 RB.  Increases reported for Pakistan (10,100 RB, including decreases of 300 RB), Indonesia (7,500 RB, including 6,600 RB switched from the Philippines, 100 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of
100 RB), Vietnam (6,200 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from South Korea), Turkey (5,900 RB), and Japan (3,400 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for China (21,500 RB), the Philippines (6,600 RB), and El Salvador (1,200 RB).  A total of 2,883,200 RB
in sales were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year, which ended July 31.  Exports for the period ending July 31 of 43,600 RB brought accumulated exports to 14,174,500 RB, up 8 percent from the prior years’ total of 13,158,900 RB.  The destinations
were primarily China (19,500 RB), Vietnam (13,800 RB), Bangladesh (2,300 RB), Peru (1,400 RB), and Thailand (1,300 RB).  Exports for August 1 – 6 totaled 278,600 RB, with China (157,100 RB), Vietnam (56,300 RB), Turkey (13,700 RB), Pakistan (11,700 RB), and
Bangladesh (9,600 RB) being the primary destinations.  Net sales of Pima for 2020/2021totaled 10,400 RB.  Increases were primarily for China (6,200 RB), Bangladesh (1,700 RB), India (900 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), and Pakistan (600 RB).  A total of 116,400 RB
in sales were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year, which ended July 31.  Exports for the period ending July 31 of 3,700 RB brought accumulated exports to 486,600 RB, down 25 percent from the prior years’ total of 644,800 RB.  The destinations were
primarily Pakistan (1,400 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), India (700 RB), China (400 RB), and Greece (200 RB).  Exports for August 1 – 6 totaled 5,600 RB, with China (2,500 RB), Peru (1,200 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), Pakistan (900 RB) and Turkey (200 RB) being the primary
destinations.     

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2019/2020, decreases were reported for 2,300 RB China.  For 2020/2021 exports for own account total of 17,300 RB were carried over from the 2019/2020 marketing year, which ended July 31.  Exports for own account totaling 4,000 RB to Vietnam (2,600 RB)
and Bangladesh (1,400 MT) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  For 2020/2021, the outstanding balance of 32,700 RB including carryover is for China (24,300 RB), Indonesia (3,900 RB), Malaysia (2,600 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), and Vietnam (900 RB). 

Hides
and Skins:

Net sales of 429,700 pieces for 2020 were up 30 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (362,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 14,200 pieces), Mexico (41,100 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,000 pieces), South Korea (17,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of  500 pieces), Spain (4,500 whole cattle hides), and Hong Kong (700 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions primarily for Thailand (4,200 whole
cattle hides), Taiwan (2,000 whole cattle hides), and Brazil (600 whole cattle hides).  Additionally, net sales of 10,400 calf skins reported for Italy, were offset by reductions for Belgium (300 kip skins).  Exports of 471,600 pieces reported for 2020 were
down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (368,600 pieces), Mexico (43,000 pieces), South Korea (40,900 pieces), Indonesia (3,200 pieces), and Thailand (3,000
pieces).  In addition, exports of 2,500 kip skins were to Mexico (1,300 kip skins) and Belgium (1,200 kip skins).

Net
sales of 134,900 wet blues for 2020 were up 67 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (61,600 unsplit and 4,500 grain splits), Thailand (26,600 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit),
Vietnam (25,800 unsplit), Italy (13,200 unsplit, including decreases of 300 unsplit), and Mexico (3,300 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Mexico (900 grain splits).  Exports of 96,600 wet blues for 2020 were down 35
percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (41,700 unsplit), Italy (34,800 unsplit and 3,700 grain splits), Thailand (6,200 unsplit), Mexico (3,100 grain splits and 2,600 MT unsplit),
and the Dominican Republic (2,400 unsplit).  Total net sales of 156,200 splits were for Vietnam.  Exports of 280,000 pounds were to Vietnam.

Beef:
Net
sales of 11,600 MT reported for 2020 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (2,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (1,900 MT), Canada (1,400 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), Hong Kong (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and South Korea (1,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT).  Exports of 16,800 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to South Korea (5,500 MT), Japan (4,800 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,000 MT).

Pork:
Net sales of
10,500 MT reported for 2020 were down 66 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (8,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (2,700 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Canada (1,600
MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Australia (1,100 MT), and Chile (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (8,800 MT).  For 2021, total net sales of 100 MT were for Australia.  Exports of 34,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week
and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), China (9,900 MT), Japan (4,000 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), and South Korea (1,300 MT).

August 13, 2020                                              
1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

                                                                                                SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
                                                                                 REPORTED UNDER THE DAILY SALES REPORTING SYSTEM
                                                                                                FOR PERIOD ENDING AUGUST 6, 2020
 

 

COMMODITY                       
DESTINATION                                QUANITY (MT)                           
MARKETING YEAR                     
SOYBEANS                             CHINA                                               1,170,000 MT 1/                           2020/2021
SOYBEANS                             UNKNOWN                                              8,000 MT 1/                           2019/2020
SOYBEANS                             UNKNOWN                                          363,000 MT 1/                           2020/2021
 

1/ Export sales.

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

AIM: fi_treilly

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

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