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USDA
24-hour: 126k soybeans for China.  USD this morning was slightly higher and WTI turned higher after equities rallied amid better than expected jobless claims.  The CBOT ag futures are under additional pressure from nonthreatening US weather.  Soybeans are
lower for the third consecutive day.  Malaysian palm oil was up 48MYR and cash rose $10.00.  China soybeans, meal and vegetable oils were on the defensive.  ProAgro raised its Ukraine 2020 wheat harvest forecast to 26.59 million tons from 26.07 MMT.  They
also increased their corn estimate and barley production.  Yesterday farmer advisory service FarmLink Marketing Solutions estimated the Canadian wheat crop at nearly 39 million tons, which would be above the previous record of 37.6 million tons set in 2013. 
This contradicts other estimates.  South Korea bought US wheat.  Japan bought food wheat and Pakistan recently bought optional origin wheat.  The FAO world food price index averaged 94.2 points in July versus a slightly revised June figure of 93.1 points.
China sold nearly 4.0 million tons of corn from auction at an average price of 2,005 yuan per ton, bringing cumulative sales to around 44 million tons since May 28.  China futures traded lower for the fourth consecutive day. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

The
general weather theme for the United States has not changed much today relative to that of earlier this week. An erratic rainfall distribution is expected over the next ten days with some areas getting better rainfall than others. The next period of active
tropical weather is expected in ten days to two weeks and that is the earliest that weather in the U.S. can change again. In the meantime, higher heights aloft will bring back warmer temperatures and it will be difficult for many crop areas to get enough rain
to counter evaporation even though the GFS model continues to generate frequent precipitation.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

Relief
from dryness in France and neighboring areas is still being advertised for next week. The situation will be debated for a while over how significant the relief will be, but the nation is critically dry and needs rain. A notable warm up is expected to precede
the rain adding more stress to crops and making the already stressful situation worse.

  • The
    GFS model run does a better job today keeping the rain in western Europe relative to that of Wednesday’s outlook maps and that leads to greater drying in central and eastern Europe as the next ten days evolve
    • Some
      showers are still expected, but areas east of France and the U.K. may not much increasing soil moisture
  • Ongoing
    dryness is still advertised for the far southeastern part of the Balkan Countries including a part of the lower Danube River Basin for the next ten days
  • Showers
    in Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region are not expected to generate enough rain to make much difference in crop or field conditions

 

Relief
expected in France and the U.K. next week may get as far east as Belgium and a few far western Germany locations, but not much farther than that. The moisture will provide some relief from the very warm to hot weather and limited rain that is expected today
into the weekend. All of the rain will be welcome, but it will come a little too late in the summer to have a big impact on production and the greatest moisture may be a little more sporadic than desired.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

Model
consistency today remains for abundant rain to fall near and immediately east of the Ural Mountains in the central New Lands over the coming ten days. Some areas may receive 2.00 to more than 5.00 inches of rain by the end of next week. Some of that same region
is already saturated or nearly saturated and that may raise some potential for flooding.

  • Early
    maturing wheat and sunseed in the region could experience a threat to crop quality and drier weather may soon be needed
  • Most
    of the global forecast models have been suggesting an eastward shift of rainfall into the eastern New Lands next week
    • Not
      all of the eastern New Lands will be impacted, but some areas near the north-central Kazakhstan border may get 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain
      • Areas
        to the north and east of that region may not get as much rain with less than 0.50 inch resulting in some ongoing concern over dryness
        • The
          driest areas will be in western parts of Siberia after the end of next week

 

Overall,
the weather change advertised for next week will be mostly good, although concern over crop quality in the central New Lands will rise because of the wetter bias in that region.

 

CHINA

  • Heavy
    rain causing some local flooding occurred Wednesday from northern Shaanxi (where significant rain fell Tuesday) into Shanxi and western parts of Hebei where amounts varied from 3.00 to more than 6.00 inches
    • Lighter
      rain surrounded the region
  • Heavy
    rain also expanded in North Korea with additional amounts of 2.75 to more than 6.00 inches resulting
    • More
      flooding rain is expected in the Korean Peninsula periodically through the next week to ten days
  • China’s
    forecast has not changed greatly for the next two weeks
    • Most
      of the nation will get rain frequently and amounts will be great enough to either maintain moisture abundance or to induce a net boost in soil moisture
    • The
      Yangtze River Basin will be the only exception with net drying likely in the lower half of the basin and especially in the interior southeastern part of the nation
  • Soil
    conditions are already saturated in many crop regions in eastern China implying there is potential for local flooding nearly every day in areas of greatest rainfall
  • Korean
    Peninsula is still advertised to receive copious amounts of rain over the next ten days resulting in serious flooding and possible crop and property damage

Overall,
no significant changes were noted or expected in eastern China’s key crop areas during the next ten days to two weeks.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    significant change was noted in the first ten days of the outlook
    • However,
      less rain was suggested for eastern South Australia Aug. 13-14
      • Some
        of the reduction was needed
  • GFS
    model increased rainfall from southern Queensland to northeastern New South Wales August 17-20
    • Some
      of this increased rainfall was overdone

 

The
bottom line remains very good for future winter wheat, barley and canola development.  Most crop areas get rain at one time or another during the next two weeks favoring a good start to the growing season when season warming evolves soon.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Rain
    was reduced in Argentina Aug. 18-19
    • The
      reduction was needed