FI Morning Grain Comments 08/04/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

No
major changes to the US weather forecast.  It will remain dry across the WCB over the next few days.  IA, WI, and northern IL have an opportunity for rain later this weekend into early next week, but some models look dry after that occurrence.  There are no
issues with the ECB. 

 

Rebound
in soybeans and wheat are limiting losses in corn (September around $5.50).  StoneX in their first survey of the season pegged the US Corn yield/production at 176.9/14.945, and soybeans at 50.0/4.332.  USDA is at 179.5 and 50.8.  We are at 176.0 and 50.8. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUGUST 4, 2021

• No
  major changes occurred overnight. 
• The
  primary theme for the U.S. is about the three weather disturbances that move through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois over the next week to ten days.
  
• The
  rain may not be heavy, but its mere presence and frequency will help prevent an expansion of dryness into a larger part of the U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt.
  
• Status
  quo conditions are expected in Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains
  
• There
  will be some expansion of dryness into Nebraska, Kansas and from southern Missouri to southern Illinois.
  
• No
  changes were noted in South America, Europe, the CIS, China, India or Australia relative to Tuesday’s forecasts and commentary. 
• Frequent
  rain in Europe from France into Belarus and far western Russia will keep some pressure on the quality of unharvested small grains
• Southeastern
  Europe will remain too dry and quite warm resulting in rising moisture stress for unirrigated summer crops
• Drying
  will continue from eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan
• China
  weather is improving resulting in receding flood water and some crop improvement
  
• However,
  crop damage did occur last month because of extreme rainfall and flooding in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, southeastern Anhui and northern Zhejiang
  
• China
  flooding in the coming week will be associated with Tropical Storm Lupit as it impacts the southern coastal provinces
• Australia
  still needs rain in Queensland while most other winter crops are favorably established
• Dryness
  remains in Argentina, but with winter crops semi-dormant the impact is very low
• Brazil
  weather will be seasonably dry for a while
• Damaged
  crops will slowly recover in areas with favorable soil moisture, but concern remains for coffee and sugarcane areas where soil conditions are dry
• A
  new tropical cyclone is evolving in the far western Pacific Ocean that will impact a part of Honshu, Japan this weekend
• Tropical
  systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean will stay west of Mexico and be no threat to North America
• Tropical
  Atlantic weather is mostly quiet and will remain that way for a while

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Aug. 4:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• France
  agriculture ministry updates 2021 crop estimates

Thursday,
Aug. 5:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia
  Aug. 1-5 palm oil export data
• Risi
  pulp conference, Sao Paulo
• BayWa
  earnings

Friday,
Aug. 6:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Saturday,
Aug. 7

• China’s
  first batch of July trade data, incl. soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

• US
  corn futures settled unchanged at the electronic pause.  Higher soybeans limited losses overnight.  
  
• StoneX
  in their first survey of the season pegged the US corn yield/production at 176.9/14.945, and the yield compares to 179.5 by USDA.  We are at 176.0. 
  
• The
  morning weather models were mostly unchanged for the US. 
• A
  private shipping lineup calls for Brazil August corn exports to fall to around 3 million tons from 6.7 million tons a year earlier.  Recall July exports were halved from July 2020 from the slow harvest pace. 
  
• Parana,
  Brazil is only 10 percent complete for harvesting corn, down from 26% from this time last year. 
  
• China
  authorities are looking into fertilizer prices as one of the components that drove up domestic corn prices. 
  
• A
  Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 7,000 barrels (990-1018 range) from the previous week and stocks down 78,000 barrels to 22.655 million.
  

 

Export
developments.

• China
  plans to auction off 219,218 tons of US imported corn on August 6, and 49,760 tons of Ukraine imported corn. 
  

• Qatar
  seeks about 100,000 tons of barley on August 18 for Sep-Nov delivery. 

 

 

 

Soybeans

• US
  soybean futures are higher on technical buying. Some think the selling yesterday was overdone.   Major support is seen at $13.00 for November soybeans.  China crush margins improved this week.  We are hearing they still need to secure September and October
  soybean supplies. 
• Soybean
  meal was mixed early this morning in part to higher soybean oil.  Malaysian pam October futures were up 148 points and cash up $30/ton to $1,062.50/ton. 
  
• StoneX
  in their first survey of the season pegged the US soybean yield/production at 50.0/4.332.  USDA is at 50.8.  We are at 50.8. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 179 points higher and meal $4.40 higher. 
• Rotterdam
  oils were mixed and meal 3-9 euros lower. 
• China
  futures were mixed for the complex.  China palm oil was up 1.7%. 
• China
  cash crush margins were last positive 90 cents on our analysis (63 previous) versus 50 cents late last week and 129 cents around a year ago. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 179 points higher and meal $4.40 higher. 
• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

• China

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

• Chicago
  wheat is higher.  Most KC contracts followed Chicago higher while MN was mixed at the electronic pause.  Chicago is back near a 3-month high.  Global crop concerns continue to linger (Russia and North America).  Argentina is in need of additional rain to promote
  their recently planted wheat crop. 
• Parts
  of Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan will continue to see net drying. 
  
• France
  lowered their estimate for the soft wheat crop from 37.10 million tons to 36.69 million tons, 26% above the previous season and 10% above a 5-year average. 
  
• December
  Paris wheat was up 1.50 at 231.50 euros per ton as of 7:50 am CT. 

 

Export
Developments. 

• Jordan
  passed on wheat.
• Pakistan
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat for Sep and Oct shipment. 
• Turkey
  bought 395,000 tons of wheat for LH September shipment.  This is provisionally bought as they have the right to adjust or cancel in coming days. 
  
• Algeria
  bought 150-200k milling wheat at $320 to $323/ton c&f for Aug and/or Sep shipment. 
  
• Japan
  (SBS) seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on August 18 for loading by November 30. 
  Algeria
  seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat for Aug/Sep shipment. 
• The
  Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 48,000 tons of grade 1 northern spring, hard red winter and white milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, on Aug. 6 for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast between Sept. 24 and Oct. 8.
• Japan
  seeks 119,435 tons of food wheat this week.

• Pakistan
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on August 23.

 

Rice/Other

• South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 39,226 tons of rice from the United States for arrival in South Korea on Jan. 31 and
  March 31, 2022.