FI Morning Grain Comments 07/31/20

PDF attached

 

USDA
reported 222,000 tons of meal to the Philippines and 114,300 tons of corn to Mexico.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

Last
seven days

 

 

 

 

 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
July 31:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for July 1-31 (tentative)
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia

MONDAY,
August 3:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• International
  Cotton Advisory Committee updates global outlook
• ABAG,
  Brazil’s agri-business association, hosts annual conference
• U.S.
  crop conditions for soybeans, corn, cotton; wheat harvesting progress, 4pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• U.S.
  DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• Malaysia
  palm oil export data for July 1-31 from AmSpec, SGS
• Honduras,
  Costa Rica coffee exports for July
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Canada

TUESDAY,
August 4:

• U.S.
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Australia
  commodity index

WEDNESDAY,
August 5:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• China’s
  CNGOIC to release supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans
• French
  Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for August 1-5
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price

THURSDAY,
August 6:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

FRIDAY,
August 7:

• China’s
  foreign trade data for July, including imports of soybeans and meat
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Personal Income Jun: -1.1% (est -0.6%; prev -4.2%)

US
Personal Spending Jun: 5.6% (est 5.2%; prev 8.2%)

US
Real Personal Spending Jun: 5.2% (est 5.0%; prev 8.1%)

US
Consumer spending jumps 5.6% in June, but the recovery already appears to be slowing – MW

Incomes
fall 1.1% as stimulus fades, fewer people return to work

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.4% (est 0.4%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Jun: 0.8% (est 0.9%; prev 0.5%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Jun: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.2%; prev 0.1%)

US
PCE Core Deflator(Y/Y) Jun: 0.9% (est 1.0%; prev 1.0%)

 

 

Corn.

• Last
  day of the month and little change in corn prices. 
• At
  the pause CBOT September and December corn futures were unchanged.  After the open they were down about 0.75 cent. 
  
• Traders
  were hopping for additional 24-hour sales for China but saw two cargoes worth of corn sold to Mexico. 
  
• Corn
  futures are down about 4 percent so far this month. 
• FranceAgriMer
  reported French corn condition down 3 points to 77 percent as of July 27 from the previous week.  
  
• BA
  Grains Exchange left their Argentina corn production unchanged at 50 million tons. 
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 114,300 tons of corn to Mexico for 2020-21 shipment. 
  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

·        
Soybeans
are higher led by strength in soybean meal.  Bull spreading in soybean oil resumed.  Soybean meal had an outside day higher yesterday, a bullish signal.  News is very light this morning.  Malaysia was on holiday.  China soybean and soybean oil futures were
higher. 

·        
CBOT registrations for soybean oil were down 36 (Cargill IL).  Deliveries for soybean oil were less than expected at 412 lots, meal were 24 and soybeans zero. 

·        
There is no threat of ridging for the US Midwest over the next ten days.  The ECB will see good rain over the next week while WCB will see some net drying. 

·        
A Reuters poll calls the June U.S. soybean crush to fall for a third straight month to 177.8 million bushels.

·        
A Reuters poll calls for Brazil new crop soybean production to rise to 130 million tons from 120.9 million tons projected by Conab for 2019-20.  The planted area was expected to increase 3 percent. 

·        
Rotterdam values this morning showed soybean oil for the Sep/Oct position was up 1 euro from this time previous session, rapeseed oil down about 2 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America up $4-7/ton.  

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 15 higher (46 higher for the week) and meal $1.10 higher ($1.70 for the week).  
  

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 150 cents per bushel (148 previous) and compares to 147 cents a week ago and 41 cents around this time last year.

·        
China’s weekly soybean crush fell 100,000 tons to 1.96 million tons and is 390,000 tons above this time last year.  AgriCensus noted the crush volume is at a 7-week low. 

·        
Palm oil: Holiday

·        
ITS: Malaysian palm oil exports for the month of July were up 5.8 percent to 1.717 million tons from 1.622 million tons for June. 

 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 222,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for 2020-21 shipment. 
  

 

 

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures
  are higher on steady US export demand and concerns over production sizes for Black Sea and Canadian Prairies.  Net drying is expected for much of the Canadian Prairies for the first week of the outlook.  The concern for Canada focuses on the central and southern
  Saskatchewan areas, and southern Alberta. 
• Paris
  December wheat was up unchanged at 182.75.  
• FranceAgriMer
  reported the French wheat harvest at 90% as of July 27, up from 71% a week earlier.  56% of crop was rated good or excellent versus 75% year earlier.
  

 

Export
Developments.

• This
  week South Korea bought 26,000 tons of USs wheat at $233.69/ton and passed on 51,000 tons.  Shipment is for around November. 
  
• Results
  awaited: The Philippines seeks 216,000 tons of wheat on July 30 for September through December shipment. 
  
• Japan
  seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on Aug 5 for arrival by end of Jan. 
  
• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported