PDF attached

 

US
one day past precipitation

 

USDA
new-crop soybean and sorghum export sales were excellent, corn poor, and wheat very good.  Soybeans were lower on follow through selling from very good US weather.  Today is position day for August CBOT contracts.  We see FND deliveries at zero to 50 soybeans,
zero to 150 soybean meal and 1500-2500 soybean oil.  Malaysian palm futures were up 32 MYR and cash increased $9.00/ton.  Indonesia aims to reach its B40 biodiesel target by July 2021. China soybean crush margins eased on our calculation
but still promote buying.  Corn futures were slightly higher after four days of losses on technical rebound after futures contracts traded near their respected contract lows on Wednesday.  Wheat futures are reversing course by trading lower, stuck this week
in a two-sided trading pattern.  Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on Aug 5 for arrival by end of Jan. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    change was noted in the first week of the outlook
    • Northern
      parts of the Midwest and the northern Plains along with Canada’s Prairies experience restricted rainfall and some net drying
    • Lower
      Midwest northern Delta and parts of the southeastern states get routinely occurring rainfall
    • Tropical
      Isaias will reach the lower east coast of Florida Saturday and follow the coast to the Carolinas bringing significant rain to some coastal areas
      • The
        storm may reduce rain in interior parts of the southeastern states for a brief period this weekend into early next week
  • Rain
    was reduced in the upper Midwest Aug. 6-8
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Some
    reduction in rain was noted for the northern Plains and eastern Canada Prairies
    • Some
      reduction was needed, but a little too much rain may have been removed
  • Rain
    was reduced in the northern Plains and upper Midwest again Aug 11-13
    • Too
      much rain was removed
  • Rain
    was increased in much of the southern Plains and a part of the Delta Aug 11-13
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone

The
bottom line is still a good one for U.S. crop development. There may be some pockets of dryness, but most of the nation’s crops will continue to perform relatively well. The pockets of dryness will be a problem for the local farmers, but the big picture for
the country remains mostly quite good for a very good production year.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • Rain
    was increased in western Europe Aug. 6-8 and reduced in eastern Europe
    • The
      increase was mostly light, but not out of the realm of possibilities
  • A
    more significant increase in rain was suggested for France and immediate neighboring areas Aug 9-11 as well as in areas of eastern Europe from parts of Poland, Czech Republic and Austria to Ukraine and southwestern Belarus
    • Some
      of the increase was overdone, but rain is expected in western Europe
  • Additional
    rain was advertised for western through southeastern Europe August 12-13
    • The
      increase in rainfall was overdone

 

The
increase in rainfall for western Europe was way overdone today.  The model brings two upper level low pressure systems into western Europe during the second week of the outlook, but the European model has a stronger ridge present over central and western Europe
to minimize the potential for such rain events. The remainder of Europe’s weather remains mostly unchanged with pockets of dryness in southeastern areas. Some showers may impact far northwestern Europe briefly after August 8, but amounts will not be nearly
those advertised by the GFS model.  The Canadian model is similar to the European solution keeping rainfall to a minimum.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Better
    model agreement is present this morning for the New Lands
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Ural Mountains and other western New Lands locations over the next couple of weeks, but conditions in the eastern New Lands will be drier biased
    • Some
      crop moisture stress will continue in a part of the spring wheat and sunseed production region
    • Recent
      rain has brought a little relief to dryness especially in the Ural Mountains region, but rain is still needed in the New Lands east of that region

 

CHINA

  • Waves
    of significant rain are still advertised for northern China next week and into the following weekend
    • Both
      the European and GFS models agree with this feature, although they are not agreeing on the region of wettest conditions
    • Waves
      of rain will occur from Shanxi and a part of Henan through Hebei and Shandong to portions of the Korean Peninsula
      • The
        GFS has this area of heavy rain farther to the north impacting Liaoning and Jilin as well
      • The
        GFS produces copious amounts of rain resulting in flooding for parts of northern China
      • The
        European model has backed off of some of the greatest rain, but still suggests amounts of 4.00 to more than 8.00 inches with parts of the Korean Peninsula getting more than 12.00 inches resulting in serious flooding and a threat to the region’s rice crop and
        personal property
  • Net
    drying is still advertised for the Yangtze River Basin during the coming ten days, although totally dry weather is unlikely
  • Coastal
    flooding is also expected in the south of China because of a couple of tropical cyclones
    • One
      tropical cyclone will move through southwestern Guangdong to southern Guangxi and northeastern Vietnam during the weekend
    • Another
      tropical wave will move into Guangdong and Fujian early to mid-week next week resulting in more heavy rain and some flooding

The
bottom line is one of improvement for China’s Yangtze River Basin and a continuation of favorable weather in many other areas. Flooding in coastal areas of the south will be a concern for this weekend and early next week as noted above. Flooding may also evolve
in parts of the north during the week next week, although confidence on where the greatest rain will fall is low. If the GFS model is correct some important rice, corn and soybean areas might be impacted. If the European model run is more correct the Korean
Peninsula will feel the brunt of this precipitation event. Too much rain in northern China would not be welcome and a close watch on the situation is warranted. The European solution is preferred.