FI Morning Grain Comments 07/29/20

PDF attached

 

As
we approach the end of the month, US weather continues to remain the driver of the weakness in US agriculture commodities.  But today we are seeing technical buying in corn and wheat.  Some Chicago wheat contracts failed to close below key moving averages
yesterday.  Corn looks like a dead cat bounce.  Soybeans were slightly lower led by weakness in soybeans meal.  Soybean oil was higher in part to a upside reversal in Malaysian palm oil. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
July 29:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases data on exports of coffee, rice and rubber

THURSDAY,
July 30:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• The
  Australian Grains Industry Conference (online event)
• Poland
  to publish grain harvest estimates

FRIDAY,
July 31:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for July 1-31 (tentative)
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures were higher early following wheat but traded lower by the electronic close.  Global import tenders have been slow this week and a series of buying out of the US and Argentina last week.  Importers maybe waiting for lower futures prices. 
  
• The
  southern US Midwest will see rain over the next week while the northern Corn Belt will be dry.  Temperatures will remain mild. 
  
• There
  was heavy trading in the CU/CZ last night. 
• USD
  was up 2 as of 7:00 am CT. 
• The
  Dalian exchange will adjust trading limits for Chinese corn futures to 6 percent effective end of July 31 session. 
  
• South
  Africa’s corn crop was pegged at 15.545 million tons, above a Reuters survey of 15.461 million tons for 2020.  9.106 white and 6.439 million yellow.  15.454 MMt is 38 percent more than 2019. 
  
• US
  ethanol margins continue to see downward pressure and production is expected to slow in weeks to come. 
  
• However,
  a Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 8,000 at 916,000 barrels (899-940 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 183,000 barrels to 19.984 million.

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported. 
• Syria
  seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on Aug 25 for delivery within four months of contract signing.