FI Morning Grain Comments 07/29/20

PDF attached

 

As
we approach the end of the month, US weather continues to remain the driver of the weakness in US agriculture commodities.  But today we are seeing technical buying in corn and wheat.  Some Chicago wheat contracts failed to close below key moving averages
yesterday.  Corn looks like a dead cat bounce.  Soybeans were slightly lower led by weakness in soybeans meal.  Soybean oil was higher in part to a upside reversal in Malaysian palm oil. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

7
Day Precipitation Outlook

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
July 29:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases data on exports of coffee, rice and rubber

THURSDAY,
July 30:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• The
  Australian Grains Industry Conference (online event)
• Poland
  to publish grain harvest estimates

FRIDAY,
July 31:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for July 1-31 (tentative)
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures were higher early following wheat but traded lower by the electronic close.  Global import tenders have been slow this week and a series of buying out of the US and Argentina last week.  Importers maybe waiting for lower futures prices. 
  
• The
  southern US Midwest will see rain over the next week while the northern Corn Belt will be dry.  Temperatures will remain mild. 
  
• There
  was heavy trading in the CU/CZ last night. 
• USD
  was up 2 as of 7:00 am CT. 
• The
  Dalian exchange will adjust trading limits for Chinese corn futures to 6 percent effective end of July 31 session. 
  
• South
  Africa’s corn crop was pegged at 15.545 million tons, above a Reuters survey of 15.461 million tons for 2020.  9.106 white and 6.439 million yellow.  15.454 MMt is 38 percent more than 2019. 
  
• US
  ethanol margins continue to see downward pressure and production is expected to slow in weeks to come. 
  
• However,
  a Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 8,000 at 916,000 barrels (899-940 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 183,000 barrels to 19.984 million.

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported. 
• Syria
  seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on Aug 25 for delivery within four months of contract signing.
  

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

·        
Soybeans were slightly lower led by weakness in soybeans meal. 

·        
Crush trades were active overnight (35Q, 35 Fuzzy, 44V). 

·        
Soybean oil was higher in part to a upside reversal in Malaysian palm oil. 

·        
Brazil soybean oil cash market is on fire, in part to competing for what is left for soybeans to crush.   Oil World noted Brazil fob soybean oil appreciated to $805/ton basis September position, up $29 from Tuesday.  Argentina
fob was quoted at $752/ton for Aug/Sep.  US fob Gulf was $737/ton for Aug.

 

·        
Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) requested a reinstatement of the 5 percent export subsidy for soymeal that would effectively stop all exports, in our opinion, and restrict edible oils imports for next season. 

·        
Rabobank sees the Brazilian soybean area increasing 3 percent next season to 38 million hectares and production at 127.3 million tons.  All cropland is expected to increase 5.3 percent from the previous season. 

·        
ANEC estimates July Brazilian corn exports at 5.4 million tons and soybeans at 8.4 million tons. 

·        
There were no changes in CBOT registrations. 

·        
Rotterdam values this morning showed soybean oil for the August/September position was up 5 euros from this time previous session, rapeseed oil up about 9 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America mixed.  

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 48 higher and meal $1.80 higher.  
  

·        
Yesterday snapped a 10-day buying streak in China soybean buying as reported by USDA’s 24-hour announcement system. 

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 153 cents per bushel (154 previous) and compares to 147 cents a week ago and 41 cents around this time last year.

·        
SGS Malaysian palm exports for July 1-25 were 1.385 million tons, down 2.2 percent. 

·        
Palm oil reversed to trade higher after two days of sharply lower trading.   

 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

 

 

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures
  were higher before the electronic close on strength in EU wheat futures and technical buying.  Some Chicago wheat contracts failed to close below key moving averages yesterday.  Wheat/corn spreading could be noted. The December KC wheat contract is running
  about 123 cents above December corn. 
• SovEcon
  sees Russia’s wheat crop at 79.3 million tons, a downgrade from 79.7 million tons previous, but above USDA’s 76.5 million ton estimate and compares to 73.61 million for 2019-20. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was up 1.50 at 183.50.
• A
  ridge of high pressure will be returning to the New Lands and Kazakhstan next week leading to warmer temperatures and a more limited rainfall pattern. 
  

 

Export
Developments.

• Tunisia
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat, 25,000 tons of durum, and 100,000 tons of barley. 
  
• Jordan
  cancelled their import tender for 120,000 tons of wheat. 
• The
  Philippines seeks 216,000 tons of wheat on July 30 for September through December shipment. 
  
• Yesterday
  Egypt bought 470,000 tons of wheat, including 350k Russia and 120k Ukrainian, for September 1-10 shipment. Lowest price paid was $215.10/ton.  With freight, C&F prices ranged from $228.05 to $229.05.  Note they
  paid $227.28 and $224.48/ton for Ukraine wheat on July 20. 
• Results
  awaited:  Syria seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia by July 28. 
  
• Syria
  looks to sell and export 100,000 tons of feed barley with offers by Sep 1. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported