FI Morning Grain Comments 07/28/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q2 A: -0.9% (est 0.4%; prev -1.6%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Jul 23: 256K (est 250K; prev 251K; prevR 261K)

 

The
US dollar sold off post US GDP number but crude oil is still trading sharply higher. US equities are pointing to a lower open. The US weather outlook is largely unchanged. Most CBOT agriculture  commodity markets are higher on uncertainty for Black Sea exports
and unfavorable US weather. USDA export sales were uneventful with exception of new-crop soybeans beating expectations.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 28, 2022

• Northwestern
  U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt production areas along with the northern U.S. Plains and southwestern parts of Canada’s Prairies will be drier and warmer than usual during the coming ten days once today and Friday’s milder weather abates
  
• Crop
  moisture stress is expected to expand and intensify in these areas because of limited rain and warm to hot temperatures next week and into the following weekend
• Relief
  from excessive heat and dryness is expected in the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and southern Kansas over the next few days with some of that rain also reaching the very dry areas of the U.S. Delta
  
• Crop
  stress relief is expected, but it may not last long
• The
  heart of Texas crop areas will stay dry biased over the coming week leaving corn, sorghum, soybean and cotton areas stressed from too much heat and dryness
  
• There
  is potential for at least “some” relief from dryness in the heart of Texas briefly during the Aug. 5-8 period, but confidence is low and the impact on production may be low
  
• Too
  much crop damage has occurred already this year for a brief period of rain to have much impact on production
• A
  more favorable mix of rain and sunshine will impact other U.S. crop areas except the far western states where drought will prevail and excessive heat will last into the weekend
  
• temperatures
  well above normal have been occurring and will continue in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia
• Argentina
  received more rain Wednesday in Buenos Aires and immediate neighboring areas
  
• Soil
  moisture has been greatly improved in the past two days in Buenos Aires, but Cordoba and other western wheat and barley areas are still too dry
• Today’s
  Europe forecast remains dry biased for the next ten days in western parts of the continent; however, the GFS model has been suggesting “some” rain will reach France and neighboring areas in the second weekend of the forecast
• Southeastern
  Europe will get some rain briefly Friday into Saturday with 0.10 to 0.75 inch of moisture resulting in some of the drought-stricken area, but another week to ten days of net drying should follow minimizing the impact of that rain
• Russia’s
  Southern Region is advertised a little drier today relative to recent past days, but the area of dryness is relatively small and the impact of ongoing dryness should be low from a world market perspective
• India,
  China and Australia weather has not changed much overnight and conditions are mostly favorable in each of those areas, although heavy rain fell in a part of the North China Plain Wednesday and India will see waves of heavy rainfall into mid-month
• Multiple
  tropical cyclones will impact the western Pacific Ocean during the next two weeks resulting in threats of heavy rain and damaging wind periodically in China, Taiwan, Japan and the Korean Peninsula

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
July 28:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Buenos
  Aires grains exchange weekly crop report
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
July 29:

• Vietnam
  July coffee, rice and rubber export data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• US
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export sales

Good
for new-crop soybean sales of 748,800 tons. China bought 538,000 tons of new-crop soybeans followed by 199,000 tons for unknown. Old crop soybean sales were negative 58,600 tons. Product sales were near of below expectations. Corn export sales were at the
low end of expectations for combined crop years. All-wheat sales were 412,000 tons, within expectations. Pork sales were 21,600 tons and included 13,100 tons for Mexico and 3,500 tons for Japan.

 

 

 

Macros

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q2 A: -0.9% (est 0.4%; prev -1.6%)

–
US Personal Consumption Q2 A: 1.0% (est 1.2%; prev 1.8%)

–
US GDP Price Index Q2 A: 8.7% (est 8.0%; prev 8.2%)

–
US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q2 A: 4.4% (est 4.4%; prev 5.2%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Jul 23: 256K (est 250K; prev 251K; prevR 261K)

–
Continuing Jobless Claims Jul 16: 1359K (est 1386K; prev 1384K)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn
is
higher in part to a rebound in the wheat market and higher WTI crude oil. US weather. There are no major changes in the US weather which calls for hot temperatures and drier conditions for next week.

·        
The 2-week outlook for the US Corn Belt calls for net drying for the northern crop areas, which should be monitored as pollination up north will last through mid-August. Some northern states saw a delay in plantings this year.

·        
US weekly ethanol production decreased 13,000 barrels from the previous week to 1.021 million and stocks decreased 225,000 barrels to 23.328 million.

·        
The USDA weekly Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 1 percent and chicks placed up 2 percent from a year ago. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through July 23, 2022, for the United States were
5.44 billion. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher (bear spreading) following strong soybean oil. Product spreading and technical selling are weighing on soybean meal. The September CBOT crush was down 8.50 cents earlier but remains over $2.00. On Friday EIA
should release updated monthly soybean oil for biofuel use. FI estimates below.

·        
US soybean producer selling increased this week with August futures over $15.50. US cash crush margins remain favorable. 

·        
Malaysia October palm was up 131 MYR to 3957 /ton and cash up $10 at $975.

·        
China soybean futures were up 1.1%, meal 1.5% higher, soybean oil up 2.7%, and palm 3.3% higher.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 15-40
euros higher earlier and meal 10-11 euros higher, from this time yesterday morning.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO 15 points higher earlier this morning and meal $2.10 short ton lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to sell a half a million tons of soybeans out of reserves on July 29. Last week they sold just 7,500 tons.

 

 

 

Wheat

·        
US and Paris wheat futures are higher on ongoing weather concerns for the EU spring crops, Black Sea shipping uncertainties and broad-based commodity buying. New is light. USDA export sales of 412,000 tons were within expectations.

·        
Egypt is expected to float another import tender soon. Reserves are sufficient for seven months.

·        
Day two of the US spring wheat crop tour reported another round of good yields. The northwest and north central areas of ND yield average was 47.7, up from 24.6 last year and five-year average of 37.9.

·        
USDA Attaché estimated Australia’s 2022-23 wheat crop at 31 million tons, below the record 36.3 million tons for 2021-22, and fourth largest in history, if realized.

·        
Paris September wheat was up 4.25 euros at 344.25 euros as of 7.45 am CT.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Pakistan earlier this week bought 186,000 tons of wheat at $407.49/ton c&f for September shipment.

·        
Bangladesh bought 50,000 tons of wheat at $476.38/ton c&f, optional origin, for nearby shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on August 3.

·        
Iran was believed to have passed on 110,000 tons of wheat on Wednesday for shipment in September through November.

·        
Egypt cancelled their import tender for 240,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat for Feb/Mar delivery because it was never loaded due to the invasion. The four cargoes were bought in late 2021 at $346 to $360 per ton. Prices were nearly
$500 by late April.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on August 2.

·        
Taiwan seeks 50,910 tons of US wheat on August 4 for shipment from the PNW between September 21 and October 5.

·        
The World Food Program seeks 30,000 tons of Ukrainian milling wheat for August delivery. (AgriCensus)

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade seeks 92,100 tons of rice on Aug 3 for arrival in SK between Feb & Apr.

 

USDA Export sales

Good for new-crop soybean sales
of 748,800 tons. China bought 538,000 tons of new-crop soybeans followed by 199,000 tons for unknown. Old crop soybean sales were negative 58,600 tons. Product sales were near of below expectations. Corn export sales were at the low end of expectations for
combined crop years. All-wheat sales were 412,000 tons, within expectations. Pork sales were 21,600 tons and included 13,100 tons for Mexico and 3,500 tons for Japan.

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE: The upgraded Export Sales Reporting and Maintenance System 2.0 (ESRMS 2.0) is scheduled to be launched
on Thursday, August 18, 2022.  ESRMS 2.0 will be available from the following url: 
https://esrms.fas.usda.gov/#/home

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period July 15-21, 2022.

Wheat:
Net sales of 412,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (98,100 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico
(67,800 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Thailand (56,300 MT), unknown destinations (43,000 MT), and Honduras (36,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (100 MT).  Exports of 345,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 47 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (103,100 MT), the Philippines (65,100 MT), Colombia (60,100 MT), Japan (34,300 MT), and Morocco (31,900 MT). 

Corn: 
Net sales of 150,300 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (70,000 MT, including decreases of 10,500 MT), Japan (41,700 MT, including 38,700 MT switched from unknown destinations),
Colombia (15,500 MT, including 14,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), Guyana (10,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (9,300 MT, including 3,100 MT switched from El Salvador), were offset by reductions
primarily for El Salvador (3,400 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), Taiwan (100 MT), and South Korea (100 MT).  Net sales of 193,700 MT for 2022/2023 primarily for Mexico (107,300 MT), unknown destinations (59,600 MT), and Costa Rica (19,800 MT), were offset by reductions
for Taiwan (300 MT) and Honduras (100 MT).  Exports of 867,900 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (396,000 MT), China (208,000 MT), Japan (72,300 MT), Guatemala
(65,400 MT), and Colombia (47,500 MT).  

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 108,300 MT is for unknown destinations (65,000 MT), Italy (34,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT).  For 2022/2023, the current outstanding balance of 35,400 MT is for Italy.

Barley: 
No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum: 
Net sales of 3,400 MT for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 78 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT) and China (1,700 MT).  Total net sales of 67,000 MT
for 2022/2023 were for China.  Exports of 72,800 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was primarily to China (70,000 MT).

Rice: 
Net
sales of 22,100 MT for 2021/2022 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Haiti (15,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (3,000 MT), Honduras (2,400 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,600 MT).  Net sales of 5,200 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for Honduras (5,000 MT).  Exports of 37,100 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Haiti (15,200 MT), Japan (12,400 MT), Honduras (4,900 MT), Canada (2,300 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales reductions of 58,600 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for the Netherlands (57,000 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,000 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (14,500
MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), Indonesia (13,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Japan (10,800 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (204,200 MT)
and China (30,800 MT).  Net sales of 748,800 MT for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (538,000 MT) and unknown destinations (199,000 MT).  Exports of 395,400 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to Mexico (163,900 MT), the Netherlands (57,000 MT), Bangladesh (57,000 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), and Japan (14,800 MT). 

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 6,300 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 28,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down 74 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (10,800 MT), Jamaica (6,500 MT), Guyana (5,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (5,300
MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Nicaragua (5,000 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from Guatemala and 1,100 MT switched from Honduras), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (5,600 MT), Belgium (4,300 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT),
and Honduras (1,700 MT).  Net sales of 20,600 MT for 2022/2023 were reported for Ecuador (10,000 MT), Costa Rica (4,800 MT), Honduras (3,100 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT).  Exports of 195,700 MT were up 31 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (37,600 MT), Ecuador (36,900 MT), Colombia (32,600 MT), Canada (24,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (15,100 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Total net sales of 4,600 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was Canada, including decreases of 300 MT.  Total net sales of 600 MT for 2022/2023 were for Canada.  Exports of 11,500
MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Guatemala (6,500 MT), Canada (3,300 MT), Mexico (900 MT), and Costa Rica (800 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales reductions of 4,000 RB for 2021/2022–a marketing-year low–were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Vietnam (6,400 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from South Korea and decreases of 200
RB), Ecuador (700 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Japan (400 RB, including decreases of 500 RB), Mexico (200 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), and Honduras (200 RB), were more than offset by reductions primarily for Turkey (6,000 RB), China (2,900 RB),
South Korea (1,600 RB), Germany (500 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB).  Net sales of 55,700 RB for 2022/2023 were primarily for Vietnam (26,000 RB), Turkey (8,800 RB), Malaysia (6,600 RB), Bangladesh (4,000 RB), and Pakistan (3,100 RB).  Exports of 252,900 RB were
down 24 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (70,000 RB), Vietnam (45,000 RB), India (27,200 RB), Bangladesh (23,200 RB), and Pakistan (21,400 RB).  No net sales of Pima for
2021/2022 were reported for the week.  Net sales of 4,900 RB for 2022/2023 were primarily for India (4,400 RB) and South Korea (500 RB).  Exports of 3,200 RB were down 41 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (1,400 RB), India (600 RB), Taiwan (400 RB), Turkey (400 RB) and Peru (100 RB). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2021/2022, options were exercised to export 5,000 RB to Vietnam from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 4,000 RB is for Pakistan (2,500 RB) and Vietnam (1,500 RB). 

Export
for Own Account:
For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 7,000 RB were to Vietnam (5,900 RB) and China (1,100 RB).  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 65,300 RB is for China (33,700 RB), Vietnam (26,500 RB), Indonesia (4,800 RB), and Pakistan
(300 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 348,600 pieces for 2022 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (277,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 4,700 pieces), Mexico (32,100 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 2,900 pieces), South Korea (23,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), Turkey (7,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Colombia (7,300 whole cattle hides), were offset by reductions primarily
for Italy (14,700 pieces), Taiwan (3,400 pieces), and Vietnam (1,800 pieces).  In addition, total net sales of 7,200 calf skins were for Italy.   Exports of 419,600 pieces were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week
average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (209,200 pieces), Thailand (59,900 pieces), South Korea (48,800 pieces), Mexico (48,500 pieces), and Brazil (20,000 pieces). 

Net
sales of 70,300 wet blues for 2022 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (39,600 unsplit), China (19,500 unsplit), India (2,000 grain splits and 1,300 unsplit), South Korea
(3,200 grain splits), and Mexico (2,600 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Portugal (500 grain splits).  Exports of 158,800 wet blues were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Italy (42,100 unsplit and 6,000 grain splits), Thailand (38,000 unsplit), Vietnam (31,300 unsplit), China (26,700 unsplit), and Taiwan (8,000 unsplit).  Net sales of 6,400 splits were down 99 percent from the previous week and 98 percent from the prior
4-week average.  Increases reported for Vietnam (7,900 pounds), were offset by reductions for South Korea (1,500 pounds).  Exports of 199,100 pounds were down 18 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was
to Vietnam.

Beef: 
Net sales of 25,300 MT for 2022 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (7,900 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Japan (7,000 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China
(3,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Taiwan (2,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).  Exports of 20,300 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to South Korea (6,000 MT), Japan (5,600 MT), China (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork: 
Net sales of 21,600 MT for 2022 were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (13,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada
(1,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and China (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 27,000 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,000 MT), China (4,100 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  7/21/2022

 

	CURRENT MARKETING YEAR						NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY	NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES		WEEKLY EXPORTS	ACCUMULATED EXPORTS		NET SALES	OUTSTANDING SALES
		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO		CURRENT YEAR	YEAR AGO
	THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW	143.7	1,593.9	1,689.5	111.3	726.8	1,023.2	0.0	0.0
SRW	53.5	1,154.2	1,077.2	126.7	398.4	390.7	0.0	30.0
HRS	70.0	1,570.9	1,538.1	70.1	694.5	834.7	0.0	0.0
WHITE	144.8	1,348.8	1,062.0	37.7	366.9	438.3	0.0	0.0
DURUM	0.0	124.4	8.4	0.0	18.0	41.7	0.0	0.0
TOTAL	412.0	5,792.2	5,375.3	345.8	2,204.6	2,728.6	0.0	30.0
BARLEY	0.0	12.8	23.0	0.0	2.7	2.0	0.0	0.0
CORN	150.3	5,209.0	7,543.2	867.9	55,391.5	62,112.1	193.7	7,600.2
SORGHUM	3.4	280.7	643.2	72.8	6,684.5	6,537.1	67.0	67.0
SOYBEANS	-58.6	6,170.2	2,808.7	395.4	53,368.8	59,100.0	748.8	14,855.1
SOY MEAL	28.0	1,706.9	1,914.8	195.7	9,703.8	9,762.1	20.6	770.4
SOY OIL	4.6	59.3	17.9	11.5	632.5	661.6	0.6	0.6
RICE
L G RGH	2.4	54.6	192.5	5.4	1,286.2	1,615.1	5.0	23.1
M S RGH	0.0	10.4	7.8	0.1	17.7	26.1	0.0	0.0
L G BRN	0.2	3.1	11.4	0.2	52.3	40.3	0.0	0.0
M&S BR	0.1	7.9	0.4	0.6	79.7	156.6	0.0	0.0
L G MLD	16.9	73.8	45.3	17.1	807.4	648.4	0.0	40.1
M S MLD	2.6	94.5	68.7	13.7	445.6	626.5	0.2	0.2
TOTAL	22.1	244.4	326.1	37.1	2,689.0	3,113.0	5.2	63.5
COTTON		THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND	-4.0	2,915.6	1,585.8	252.9	12,785.1	14,603.5	55.7	4,756.7
PIMA	0.0	34.3	98.2	3.2	445.2	743.1	4.9	64.4