FI Morning Grain Comments 07/23/20

Jul 23, 2020







PDF attached

 

News
is light for this Thursday morning trade.  Look for a two-sided trade in soybean and corn.  USDA export sales for new crop corn and soybeans were very good. Meal sales were poor, soybean oil ok, and wheat topped expectations.  USD is higher and WTI lower. 
Malaysian palm was sharply higher and offshore values are leading CBOT products higher. Philippines bought 55,00 tons of feed wheat.  Grains are losing ground to the soybean complex.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

No
change in the general theme of weather was suggested today. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the Midwest during the next few days and then breakdown as we move into next week. The ridge will then center itself over the western United States resulting
in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft that will bring weak weather disturbances periodically through the Midwest and northern Plains. These disturbances will continue to generate erratic rainfall across the Midwest periodically during the next two weeks and
some areas will get moderate rain while many other areas will not get very much and will have a tendency to slowly dry down. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible in many areas, but the majority of the precipitation will be light and with seasonably
warm temperatures prevailing evaporation will take much of the moisture away within a relatively short period of time.

 

Tropical
Depression Eight in the Gulf of Mexico will dominate the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and will probably not be a great enough storm to have a big impact on air circulation over the central Gulf of Mexico Coast states. However, it will attempt
to reduce rainfall. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is also too small of a storm and too far away from North America to have any influence on the U.S. weather. However, some of the forecast models have suggested other tropical weather disturbances may evolve or move
into either the Gulf of Mexico or the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in the first week of August and these features may contribute to a decreasing influx of moisture into the heart of the Midwest for a little while which may help to contribute to a net drying
environment. That may leave the southwest U.S. monsoon flow as the primary source of moisture for Midwestern storms and rainfall during weeks 2 and 3 of the forecast. If the high pressure ridge stays out into the western U.S. for a while or even over the high
Plains region it may inhibit some of the monsoon moisture from getting into the Midwest as abundantly as desired and that too could limit rainfall.  World Weather, Inc. is not implying a hot, dry scenario for key Midwestern crop areas, but we do believe a
net drying environment may dominate a larger part of the production region as we move into weeks 2 and 3 for the reasons noted above.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    general weather changes were noted across the European continent for the next ten days based on the latest model runs
    • Portions
      of France will get some rain, but central and western parts of the nation will likely stay quite dry
    • Some
      relief from dryness may impact a part of the U.K., Belgium, Netherland and Germany from a couple of waves of moisture one occurring this weekend and the other early to mid-week next week
  • Eastern
    Ukraine and areas east into Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region will continue quite dry and warm through the next ten days

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Rain
    is expected to fall in the Ural Mountains region over the next few days with some heavy rain possible between north-central Kazakhstan and the heart of the Ural Mountains
  • Lighter
    and more sporadic rain will impact the remaining central New Lands while Siberia and other eastern New Lands’ crop areas will get some periodic rain
    • Concern
      about the central New Lands dryness will continue
    • World
      Weather, Inc. sees about 30% of the dry region getting some relief, but the remainder of the region will remain in need of greater rain

 

 

CHINA

  • Additional
    heavy rain fell in Shandong and Henan Wednesday resulting in some new flooding in key grain and oilseed areas
    • Rainfall
      of 5.00 to 10.00 inches occurred from southern Shaanxi and northeastern Sichuan to northern Jiangsu and southern Shandong with local totals of 12.00 to 19.76 inches; some crop damage might have resulted
  • China’s
    weather will continue active over the next week with frequent rain expected in much of the nation
    • The
      best environment for crops will be north of the Yellow River and throughout the northeastern provinces where a good mix of rain and sunshine is expected
    • Some
      bouts of locally heavy rain will occur in east-central and southeastern China, but not broad-based area of severe flooding is expected
  • Net
    drying may impact the Yangtze River Basin and interior southeastern parts of China during the first week of August

 

Crop
damage in Henan and Shandong has likely occurred, but it not nearly as widespread as that of the Yangtze River Basin earlier this month. Drier weather in east-central and southeastern China in the first week of August will be welcome, but much of the crop
damage in those areas cannot be reversed. Most of northern China will continue to experience favorable crop conditions; including some very important corn, soybean, spring wheat and sugarbeet production areas

 

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    significant changes were suggested for the next ten days
    • The
      nation’s greatest rain will occur Friday and Saturday in parts of New South Wales and southeastern Queensland and where some short term benefit will occur to some wheat, barley and canola areas
    • Net
      drying is expected in many other areas for a while, although coastal showers are expected
  • Some
    increase in shower activity will occur in southern Australia during the first days of August, but no general soaking is expected
    • Victoria
      and southwestern Western Australia will be wettest

 

Winter
crop conditions will remain good, but there will be an ongoing need for more moisture especially in Queensland and South Australia where soil conditions are driest.

 

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • No
    significant changes were noted overnight
    • Argentina’s
      southern and eastern areas will get a little more rain today into Friday
    • Far
      southern Brazil will be wettest over the next couple of week
    • Drought
      will continue in Cordoba, Argentina

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI