FI Morning Grain Comments 07/20/20

PDF attached

 

 

USDA
announced 132,000 tons of soybeans to China.  Taiwan seeks US wheat and Saudi Arabia bought barley.  Soybean oil is the feature this morning, ripping higher, from strength in global vegetable oil markets. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

UNITED
STATES

• U.S.
  crop weather continues to be mostly good, but parts of Iowa have been too dry in the past couple of weeks along with portions of Ohio, eastern Indiana, central Illinois, central Missouri and in a number of other random locations
• The
  northern Delta has also been rather dry recently along with much of Texas and southwestern Oklahoma (excluding the Texas Panhandle
• Today’s
  GFS and European forecast model runs are agreeing that rain will concentrate on two areas this week; the first is from North Dakota to Wisconsin and upper Michigan  and the other will occur from Nebraska into southern Illinois and parts of far southern Indiana
  and immediate neighboring areas
• These
  areas get rainfall varying from 1.50 to more than 4.00 inches over the next ten days with areas in between these regions getting 0.50 to 1.50 inches
  
• Sufficient
  rain still occurs in a large enough part of the Midwest to support corn pollination and soybean development even though there will be some pockets of dryness
• Both
  models provide some relief to dryness in Iowa and Ohio and Indiana so that moisture stress is kept from getting so extreme that production cuts become a big concern
• Another
  period of warm and humid weather with restricted rainfall is expected briefly during the end of this week and over the weekend, but it will be followed by another cool front and another opportunity for rain early next week and then another brief bout of drier
  and warmer weather
• The
  environment will not be ideal, but supportive of summer crop development

 

The
overall bottom line remains generally favorable for key U.S. corn and soybean production areas in the Midwest. Rain in the Delta stays somewhat limited while the southeastern states experience a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. A tropical wave still moves
across the Gulf of Mexico this week bringing greater rain to southern Louisiana and the upper half of the Texas coast late this week before spreading some of that moisture into other parts of Texas. The GFS model run suggests some showers in West Texas from
this tropical wave during the weekend while the European model keeps the moisture too far to the south. The GFS solution is most likely and World Weather, Inc. anticipates at least some rain during the weekend from this event. Monsoonal moisture slowly increases
in the southern Rocky Mountain region as time moves along this month. Temperatures will be warmest during the Friday through Sunday period and again late next week, but sufficient cooling is expected after each event to provide some relief for crops.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

• A
  boost in rainfall was suggested this morning by the GFS model run this morning for much of western Europe
  
• Some
  of the increase in rainfall is expected to verify, although the European model has not bought into the potential for Rain in France, but has increased rain in parts of the U.S. and Germany
• Weather
  next week trends drier again in western Europe, although a few showers occur in the U.K. at times
  
• GFS
  model keeps eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region relatively dry over the next ten days to two weeks while the European model has the driest conditions in southern Ukraine and parts of Russia’s Southern Region
• The
  GFS solution seems to be best
• Rain
  and thunderstorms are scattered in most other areas

 

The
bottom line does offer some short-term relief in western Europe with some showers in France, Germany, Belgium and the U.K. late this week and into the weekend. No general soaking is expected, but any moisture would be welcome. There will be need for more generalized
rainfall. Dryness in parts of southern and Eastern Ukraine into Kazakhstan and parts of Russia’s Southern Region will remain a concern for the next couple of weeks, despite any showers that evolve. Temperatures will be seasonable with a warmer than usual bias
in Spain, Portugal, southern France and parts of the southern Balkan Countries

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

• Some
  rain is expected along with cooling temperatures in the New Lands this week
• Rainfall
  will be greatest in the Ural Mountains region and in West Siberia while rainfall elsewhere is expected to be more restricted

 

A
break from warm and dry weather is expected in the New Lands over the coming week to ten days with cooler temperatures and at least some rain. A part of the region east of the Ural Mountains will likely get some locally heavy rainfall as suggested by many
of the forecast models, but parts of the New Lands will be missed and a close watch on the precipitation distribution is warranted.

 

 

CHINA

• Additional
  torrential rain fell during the weekend with one location in southwestern Anhui getting almost 28.00 inches for the weekend