FI Morning Grain Comments 07/15/20

Jul 15, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Higher
trade in soybeans and wheat on good global import demand.  Corn remains on the defensive from ideal US weather. We heard China was also in for Black Sea corn yesterday and SK was back in buying corn for late 2020 arrival.  China soybean margins continue to
improve.  We heard China bought at least ten US Sep-Nov soybean cargoes overnight out of the Gulf at 202-205 cents over the Nov.  Anec increased their view for Brazil July soybean exports to 8.9MMT from 8.0 previously.  India’s soybean production was estimated
above 10.7 million tons from 9.3 million in 2019 on good monsoon rains, according to the trade via Rueters. Malaysian palm oil is near a 5-1/2 month high.  Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 21 for Sep-Nov shipment.  Japan in an SBS import tender seeks
80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley. Ethiopia postponed an import tender for 400,000 tons of wheat to July 20 from July 10. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    general theme changes were noted in this first week of the outlook
    • The
      GFS model presents rain in all of the Midwest with some of the greatest amounts in the south
    • This
      contrasts with the Canadian Model which limits rain in the next week from South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota and far northern Iowa
      • The
        European model has some rain in this region, but not as much as the GFS and more than the Canadian Model
  • Rain
    was increased from southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas through the lower Midwest to the Carolinas late next week
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was reduced in the northern Midwest and parts of Canada’s Prairies late next week
    • The
      reduction was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in the northern Plains and upper Midwest July 25-27 while it was greatly decreased in the lower Midwest and areas south into Tennessee
    • some
      of these changes were needed
  • Rain
    was increased in the west-central high Plains and reduced from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota July 28-29
    • The
      increase was overdone

 

The
bottom line continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms in much of the U.S. grain and oilseed production areas over the coming week with a little less rain in the second week of the outlook. The second week outlook may not be as aggressive with
rainfall as this first week, but there is still scattered showers and thunderstorms expected while temperatures are warm. The southwestern Corn Belt may be driest, but there will be a generally favorable crop environment still prevailing into the last days
of July even though the latest GFS model run has reduced some of the second week rainfall.  Corn pollination still looks to be successful in the majority of the Midwest even with a few drier pockets still possible.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant change was suggested in the first week of the outlook
    • France,
      the U.K., Belgium, Netherlands and parts of northwestern Germany will receive limited rainfall along with portions of the Balkan Countries and many areas from eastern Ukraine in northern parts of Russia’s Southern Region
      • Some
        rain is still advertised for Krasnodar and southwestern portions of Russia’s Southern Region
  • Some
    rain was increased in the U.K. late next week
    • An
      increase is possible, but the amounts may have been a little overdone
  • Light
    showers were increased from France into Poland and Germany July 25-27
    • The
      increase was needed and may verify
  • Light
    showers were increased in the North and Baltic Sea regions July 28-29
    • Some
      of this increase was needed
  • Rain
    was also increased from southern France into Czech Republic and parts of central Poland July 28-29
    • The
      precipitation was advertised mostly light and erratic and it may verify
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was suggested for the southern Balkan Countries during the second week of the outlook

 

The
bottom line does not change greatly, but there is some potential for a “few” showers will develop in the drier areas of western Europe during the last week of this month and the moisture will be welcome but may be a little limited in its benefit to crops.
Most of Europe in this first week of the outlook will continue to deal with status quo conditions with dryness in the northwest and southeastern parts of the continent and frequent showers and thunderstorms in the northeast and some central areas. Temperatures
will be near o below average except in Spain and Portugal where warmer than usual conditions are expected.

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant change was suggested in the first week of the outlook
    • Warm
      and dry weather is expected into Friday
    • Scattered
      showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cooling trend during the weekend
  • An
    increase in rain fall was suggested for late next week and into the following weekend in the New Lands, although the rain was advertised to be light
    • The
      increase was needed and may verify
  • July
    28-29 is a little drier than previously advertised as weak ridge building resumes
    • This
      change may verify

 

The
bottom line offers some relief from recent dry and warm weather in the New Lands this weekend and next week, but the amount of rain is still debatable and there may continue to be some need for greater follow up moisture. Portions of the region may get more
rain than others leaving pockets of dryness, as well.

 

 

CHINA

  • Not
    much change occurred in the first week of the outlook overnight
  • A
    boost in rain was suggested for southern portions of the North China Plain late next week and into the following weekend