FI Morning Grain Comments 07/15/20

PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Higher
trade in soybeans and wheat on good global import demand.  Corn remains on the defensive from ideal US weather. We heard China was also in for Black Sea corn yesterday and SK was back in buying corn for late 2020 arrival.  China soybean margins continue to
improve.  We heard China bought at least ten US Sep-Nov soybean cargoes overnight out of the Gulf at 202-205 cents over the Nov.  Anec increased their view for Brazil July soybean exports to 8.9MMT from 8.0 previously.  India’s soybean production was estimated
above 10.7 million tons from 9.3 million in 2019 on good monsoon rains, according to the trade via Rueters. Malaysian palm oil is near a 5-1/2 month high.  Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 21 for Sep-Nov shipment.  Japan in an SBS import tender seeks
80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley. Ethiopia postponed an import tender for 400,000 tons of wheat to July 20 from July 10. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

• No
  general theme changes were noted in this first week of the outlook
• The
  GFS model presents rain in all of the Midwest with some of the greatest amounts in the south
• This
  contrasts with the Canadian Model which limits rain in the next week from South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota and far northern Iowa
• The
  European model has some rain in this region, but not as much as the GFS and more than the Canadian Model
  
• Rain
  was increased from southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas through the lower Midwest to the Carolinas late next week
• Some
  of this increase was overdone
• Rain
  was reduced in the northern Midwest and parts of Canada’s Prairies late next week
• The
  reduction was overdone
• Rain
  was increased in the northern Plains and upper Midwest July 25-27 while it was greatly decreased in the lower Midwest and areas south into Tennessee
• some
  of these changes were needed
• Rain
  was increased in the west-central high Plains and reduced from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota July 28-29
• The
  increase was overdone

 

The
bottom line continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms in much of the U.S. grain and oilseed production areas over the coming week with a little less rain in the second week of the outlook. The second week outlook may not be as aggressive with
rainfall as this first week, but there is still scattered showers and thunderstorms expected while temperatures are warm. The southwestern Corn Belt may be driest, but there will be a generally favorable crop environment still prevailing into the last days
of July even though the latest GFS model run has reduced some of the second week rainfall.  Corn pollination still looks to be successful in the majority of the Midwest even with a few drier pockets still possible.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

• No
  significant change was suggested in the first week of the outlook
• France,
  the U.K., Belgium, Netherlands and parts of northwestern Germany will receive limited rainfall along with portions of the Balkan Countries and many areas from eastern Ukraine in northern parts of Russia’s Southern Region
• Some
  rain is still advertised for Krasnodar and southwestern portions of Russia’s Southern Region
  
• Some
  rain was increased in the U.K. late next week
• An
  increase is possible, but the amounts may have been a little overdone
• Light
  showers were increased from France into Poland and Germany July 25-27
• The
  increase was needed and may verify
• Light
  showers were increased in the North and Baltic Sea regions July 28-29
• Some
  of this increase was needed
• Rain
  was also increased from southern France into Czech Republic and parts of central Poland July 28-29
• The
  precipitation was advertised mostly light and erratic and it may verify
• Some
  reduction in rainfall was suggested for the southern Balkan Countries during the second week of the outlook

 

The
bottom line does not change greatly, but there is some potential for a “few” showers will develop in the drier areas of western Europe during the last week of this month and the moisture will be welcome but may be a little limited in its benefit to crops.
Most of Europe in this first week of the outlook will continue to deal with status quo conditions with dryness in the northwest and southeastern parts of the continent and frequent showers and thunderstorms in the northeast and some central areas. Temperatures
will be near o below average except in Spain and Portugal where warmer than usual conditions are expected.

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

• No
  significant change was suggested in the first week of the outlook
• Warm
  and dry weather is expected into Friday
• Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cooling trend during the weekend
  
• An
  increase in rain fall was suggested for late next week and into the following weekend in the New Lands, although the rain was advertised to be light
• The
  increase was needed and may verify
• July
  28-29 is a little drier than previously advertised as weak ridge building resumes
• This
  change may verify

 

The
bottom line offers some relief from recent dry and warm weather in the New Lands this weekend and next week, but the amount of rain is still debatable and there may continue to be some need for greater follow up moisture. Portions of the region may get more
rain than others leaving pockets of dryness, as well.

 

 

CHINA

• Not
  much change occurred in the first week of the outlook overnight
• A
  boost in rain was suggested for southern portions of the North China Plain late next week and into the following weekend
• Some
  of the increase may have been overdone
• GFS
  model reduced rain in a part of the Northeast Provinces of China late next week and into the weekend
• Some
  reduction was needed, but a few areas might be advertised a little too dry
• GFS
  reduced rain in Liaoning and Jilin July 28-29 while increasing it in Shaanxi and Shanxi
  

 

The
bottom line is still favorable for most of the key grain, oilseed and cotton production areas in the nation. Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will occur while temperatures are warm to support good crop development. A few areas in the northeastern corner
of the nation may trend dry enough to be monitored for improved rainfall in late July and early August, but no area will be critically dry through this two-week outlook.  The southern coastal provinces of China will also be drying out over the next two weeks
and they will have an increasing need for rain.

 

AUSTRALIA

• 06z
  GFS model run reduced rain from eastern Australia during the second week of the outlook
• Some
  of this reduction was needed

 

The
bottom line remains favorable for most of the nation, but a boost in rainfall will be needed soon in many areas – especially in South Australia, Queensland and northern and eastern parts of Western Australia.

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
July 15:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil
  chicken, pork group ABPA’s press conference on output, exports
• International
  Sugar Organization’s online conference on Covid-19 impact on sugar and alcohol
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for July 1-15

THURSDAY,
July 16:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• North
  America 2Q cocoa grindings
• European
  Cocoa Association 2Q grind data

FRIDAY,
July 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia releases 2Q cocoa grind data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Empire Manufacturing (Jul): 17.2 (est  10, prev -0.2)

Canada
Manufacturing Sales (M/M) May: 10.7% (est 9.8%, prev -28.5%)

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Jun: 1.4% (est 1%, prev 1%)

US
import Price Index (Y/Y) Jun: -3.8%(est -3.7%, prev -6%)

US
Export Price Index (M/M) Jun: 1.4% (est 0.8%, prev 0.5%)

US
Export Price Index (Y/Y) Jun: -4.4% prev 6%)

 

 

Corn.

• Another
  lower trade was seen this morning for corn, but losses were limited from higher soybeans.  The US weather outlook this morning was largely unchanged but some of the models disagree for the US with changes in the distribution of rain for week one and week two. 
  The southwestern areas may end up the driest over the next couple of weeks.  Bottom line is US weather looks good.  Resistance for December corn is seen near 3.40, support 3.2425.
  
• We
  heard China was also in for Black Sea corn yesterday. 
• China’s
  2020 “summer grain” production was increased to 142.81 million tons, up 0.9 percent from the previous year, according to the stats department.  Wheat was projected at 131.68 million tons, a 0.6% increase. 
  
• APK-Inform:
  Ukraine’s grain exports 50.6 million tons, up from 48.9 million tons a month earlier.  Ukrainian corn production 36.6 million tons from 35.4 million tons. 
  

·        
The USD was 40 lower by 7:24 am CT.  

• Traders
  should monitor central Iowa, northern Indiana and Ohio, where those states are expected to get rain over the next couple of weeks. 
  

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 14,000 at 928,000 barrels (920-935 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 226,000 barrels to 20.846 million. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• South
  Korea’s FLC bought 65,000 tons of corn at $188.74/ton c&f for November 20 arrival.
  
• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 65,000 tons of corn at $188.74/ton c&f for December 30 arrival. They passed on a second cargo. 
  
• Results
  awaited: Iran seeks 200,000 tons of corn and 200,000 tons of barley on Wednesday for Aug/Sep delivery. 
  

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

·        
Chinese buying of US soybeans is supporting prices.  Soybean oil continues to get a lift from higher outside markets while meal is higher following soybeans.  September oil share is back above 33.3 percent. 

• China
  soybean margins continue to improve.
• We
  heard China bought at least ten US Sep-Nov soybean cargoes overnight out of the Gulf at 202-205 cents over the Nov. 
  
• Anec
  increased their view for Brazil July soybean exports to 8.9MMT from 8.0 previously. 
  
• India’s
  soybean production was estimated above 10.7 million tons from 9.3 million in 2019 on good monsoon rains, according to the trade via Rueters.
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil is near a 5-1/2 month high. 
• AmSpec
  reported exports of Malaysian palm oil for July 1 – 15 fell 10.1 percent to 829,294 tons from 922,251 tons shipped during June 1 – 15 and compares to 18 percent decline for the first 10 days. ITS shows a 9.1 percent decline to 831,155 tons.  Note SGS reported
  a decline of 20.4 percent to 461,806 tons for the July 1-10 period. 
• Indonesia’s
  2021 biodiesel consumption was estimated at 10 million kiloliters, assuming “normal” demand next year-bioenergy director at Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
  

·        
Rotterdam values this morning showed soybean oil for the August/September position was up 4-5 euros from this time previous session, rapeseed oil up 7 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America unchanged
to 3 euros higher. 

• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 21 higher and meal $1.70 higher.  
  

·        
Malaysia: 

• China:

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 119 cents per bushel (115 previous) and compares to 89 cents a week ago and 41 cents around this time last year.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

·        
Oil World noted combined US sales of sorghum, corn, wheat and soybeans (4) to China from March to mid-June total 18.3 million tons from 5.6 million year earlier, while actual exports remain low at 4.2MMT vs. 5.7 year earlier. 

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures were higher following new import tender announcements and a slightly drier weather forecast for the Canadian Plains.   

• Germany’s
  association of farm cooperatives estimated the 2020 wheat harvest down 2.6% to 22.46 million tons,  up from 22.21 million tons projected in June.
• Germany’s
  association of farm cooperatives estimated the 2020 winter rapeseed crop up 13.7% from last year to 3.21 million tons, up slightly from the 3.20 million tons estimated in June.

·        
Paris December wheat was up 0.75 at 187.00, at the time this was written.

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on July 21 for Sep-Nov shipment. 
• Japan
  in an SBS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley on July 22 for arrival by December 24.
  
• Ethiopia
  postponed an import tender for 400,000 tons of wheat to July 20 from July 10. 
  

·        
Japan seeks 125,957 tons of food wheat from the US, Canada, and/or Australia. 

• Syria
  seeks 200,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia by July 28. 

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported