FI Morning Grain Comments 07/14/20

Jul 14, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Funds
have been big sellers of corn over the last couple sessions of about 70,000 contracts.  Corn and soybeans conditions were down 2 and 3 points, respectively, which is providing some support in prices this morning.  Yesterday the lower trade prompted some import
business, including SK in for corn and Egypt for wheat.  Jordan is seeing offers for wheat. Offshore values are very strong this morning.  The GFS was wetter in the second week of the outlook in the lower parts of the Midwest. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    general theme changes have occurred overnight, although the GFS is wetter in the second week of the outlook in the lower parts of the Midwest and that may not verify
    • A
      tropical wave may be present in the Gulf of Mexico during the second week and if that happens there may be less rain in the lower Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin
    • Too
      much rain is being advertised by the GFS in the second week of the outlook and future model runs are likely to reduce this feature
  • The
    first week of the outlook today continues to perpetuate rain for much of the Midwest and the bottom line will continue favorable for reproduction of early season crops

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    general theme changes have occurred for western Europe overnight
    • France
      the U.K. will continue to experience the least rainfall over the next ten days
  • The
    GFS continues to suggest more rainfall for Ukraine than the European model while the Canadian model sides with the European solution
    • The
      GFS is likely too wet for Ukraine, although all models are suggesting at least some scattered showers across a part of eastern Ukraine in this coming week; some showers also occur briefly in Russia’s Southern  Region and then net drying resumes
    • Drier
      weather then occurs in the following week
  • Portions
    of the lower Danube River Basin will continue to experience an erratic rainfall pattern during the coming ten days

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Some
    increase in rainfall occurs in the July 24-28 period in the central New Lands on the latest GFS model run, but most models suggest the coming ten days will not provide a significant amount of moisture
    • This
      remains a change over that of Monday’s forecasts when most models were predicting relief for the central New Lands
  • The
    00z and 06z GFS model runs were still promoting rain in the central and western New Lands for Saturday into July 22 while the Canadian and European model runs are still restricting rainfall across the area
    • World
      Weather, Inc. believes that some showers are going to impact the central and western New Lands briefly during the coming week, but conditions may dry back down a little later this month
    • The
      GFS does not all for much returning drier and warmer biased conditions

 

A
close watch on the CIS New Lands is warranted due to model divergence. The odds favor some relief to the warm and dry weather of late, but how long the relief lasts remains to be seen. Crop conditions will improve during the coming weekend and next week as
the greatest rain impacts the region.

 

 

CHINA

  • A
    little less rain was suggested for northeastern China on the latest GFS model run during the first week of the outlook; otherwise, there was not much change
  • A
    little less rain was also suggested in northeastern China July 26-28
  • Some
    shifting of the greatest rainfall in east-central China was noted in the July 22-28 period, but the bottom line does not change much

 

China’s
bottom line brings rain to most of the nation’s key crop areas east of Tibet throughout the next two weeks. Northern areas will see a good mix of rain and sunshine promoting good crop development. The same will be true for the southern coastal provinces while
the wettest conditions are expected in east-central areas including the Yangtze River Basin. Some local flooding will be possible in the Yangtze River Basin later this week, but the floods will not be as serious as those in the past few weeks. The second week
outlook will continue to perpetuate rain in the wettest areas, but daily amounts should be lighter and less threatening at times.

 

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    significant changes to the outlook were noted overnight
    • Rain
      will be most significant in Western Australia late this week; otherwise, showers will be mostly confined to coast areas for the next ten days

 

Crop
conditions are still rated favorably in much of the nation, although more moisture would be welcome in northern and eastern parts of Western Australia, throughout South Australia and in most of Queensland

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
July 14: