FI Morning Grain Comments 07/13/20

Jul 13, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Weather
is in focus again.  A less threatening outlook is sending prices lower.  Traders should monitor Chinese purchases.  24-hour sales were not announced this morning, but we heard China was active late last week for PNW soybeans.  China crush margins, on our paper,
have improved from the previous week.   Keep in mind US temperatures will remain hot this week, limiting losses, IMO. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

·        
US soybean conditions are expected to decline 1-2 and corn down 2-4.  Spring wheat could be down 1 and winter wheat will not be reported. 

·        
US winter wheat harvest progress is expected to be up 12 points to 68 percent vs. 54 LY and 66 average.

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • 06z
    GFS model was drier in the coming week over southern Michigan, parts of Ohio and Indiana relative to the previous model run while rain was increased somewhat in the southwestern Corn Belt
    • Confidence
      in these changes verifying are low
    • Too
      much rain is being advertised for the southwestern Corn Belt
  • GFS
    increased rain in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin during mid-week next week while decreasing rain in the central Midwest and in Canada’s Prairies
    • This
      increase was overdone and some of the decreases were needed, although it is a little too dry in the central Midwest
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the northern Plains July 23-25, but this was likely overdone
  • GFS
    increased rainfall across the eastern Midwest, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states July 26-27
    • The
      increase was overdone
  • GFS
    increased rain in western Nebraska July 26-27
    • Some
      increase was needed, but the region now gets a little too much moisture
  • The
    European and Canadian model runs are preferred over the GFS with more limited rain in the lower Midwest and especially the southwestern Corn Belt through day ten

 

Cool
air in Canada this week helps to bring on scattered showers and thunderstorms in many Midwestern locations, but the GFS model keeps too much cool air around for too long and does not build up the heights very quickly this weekend or next week. The European,
Canadian and GFS Ensemble models do a much better job in reducing the cool air quicker and limiting rainfall in the lower Midwest and especially the southwestern Corn Belt. It will not be surprising to see more rain removed from the outlook later this week
in the southwestern half of the Corn Belt in all of the models, but especially the GFS.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    general theme changes occurred during the weekend or overnight
    • Limited
      rainfall is expected in France, the U.K., Belgium or western Germany for at least the next ten days; temperatures will not be excessively warm which will help to conserve soil moisture losses even though net drying is expected
  • Rain
    will fall in eastern Ukraine and some Russia Southern Region locations early this week and then the region will be dry again for at least ten days
    • Any
      rain will be welcome, but more will be needed to seriously change the dryness issues that remain in the region
  • Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms will continue from Italy and the Balkan Countries beginning during mid-week this week and continuing through most of next week
  • Rain
    is also advertised to be limited in far northwestern Russia and a part of the Baltic States and northeastern Belarus during the coming ten days
    • Some
      of this dryness may be removed in future model runs

 

Concern
about crop moisture stress will remain in northwestern Europe, but some relief to dryness is possible in at least a portion of the Balkan Countries. Concern over southern and eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern region will continue, despite some showers
early this week.

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    changes in the outlook relative to those of Sunday or last Friday
    • Net
      drying will occur in the central New Lands early to mid-week this week followed by rain
    • Rain
      will fall frequently late this week into next week along with a cooling trend
    • Most
      other New Lands locations will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next ten days

 

The
bottom line is improving for the central New Lands where very warm and dry conditions occurred for a while last week and during the weekend. Relief is expected to be most significant late this week into next week with most areas getting sufficient rain to
improve topsoil moisture and crop conditions. A few areas near the Kazakhstan border may continue a little dry.

 

 

CHINA

  • Additional
    heavy rain occurred in east-central parts of the nation during the weekend with new flooding suspected
  • A
    short-term break from the rain will occur today and Tuesday before it resumes in the Yangtze River Basin from Wednesday through the coming weekend with some lingering rain next week
    • More
      flooding is anticipated, but it should not be as severe as that of recent past weeks
  • A
    better mix of rain and sunshine is advertised for northern and far southeastern China during the next ten days
    • There
      was a boost in rainfall noted in the northeastern provinces for early to mid-week next week
      • The
        increase was needed