PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Higher
trade on follow through weather rally, an upward revision to China demand, and positioning ahead of the July USDA S&D report.  US weather for this weekend appears to be not as hot as previous.  Second week remains hot. China futures ended mixed. In its monthly
S&D update, China increased 2019-20 corn and soybean imports by 2 and 3 million tons respectively.  China cash crush are slightly higher.  Palm was up 9MYR.  Malaysian palm oil production during June was reported at an unusually high 1.886 million tons, 102,000
above trade expectations, a marketing year high, while end of June palm oil stocks were reported 34,500 tons below expectations at 1.9 million tons.  This bullish undertone was partially offset by a decline in July exports.  Cargo surveyors ITS and AmSpec
reported a 17.8 percent and 16.8 percent decrease in June 1-10 palm oil shipments from month earlier.  Corn is higher while US wheat mixed.  US soybean conditions are expected to decline 1-2 on Monday and corn 2-4.  Spring wheat could be down 1 and winter
wheat will not be reported. French wheat futures are higher after France reported a one-point decline in crop conditions.  Argentina is on holiday.  FI snapshot for the USDA report is attached.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

·        
US soybean conditions are expected to decline 1-2 on Monday and corn 2-4.  Spring wheat could be down 1 and winter wheat will not be reported. 

 

 

CHINA

  • Additional
    torrential rain has occurred south of the Yangtze River overnight
    • Rain
      totals since Sunday morning have ranged from 4.00 to more than 32.00 inches in much of the Yangtze River Basin perpetuating serious flooding
  • European
     and GFS model runs continue to perpetuate excessive rain in the Yangtze River Basin during the coming ten days, although the daily rainfall will become a little less intensive and less broad-based in the region during the weekend with next week trending wetter
    again
  • 06z
    GFS model run is wetter in the North China Plain in the second weekend of the two week outlook

 

The
bottom line for China is flooding in the Yangtze River Basin will subside over the next few days, but damage in the region has likely been substantial since June 1 and more flooding will occur as rain increases near and north of the river next week. In the
meantime, other areas in China will see a good mix of rain and sunshine to support crop needs. There will be some locally heavy rain in northern parts of the nation, but no area will be subjected to widespread serious flooding like that of the Yangtze River
Basin. Some near term drying is expected in northeastern China.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • Not
    much change occurred in the first ten days out of the outlook today
    • France,
      southern parts of the U.K., portions of Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and a few areas east into western Poland experience net drying
    • France
      has been and will continue to be driest with high temperatures Thursday reaching into the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit to accelerate the drying and to more seriously stress some of the nation’s crops
      • Temperatures
        will be seasonable in the coming week and warmer than usual in the July 18-24 period
      • Light
        rain advertised last evening for France remains in the forecast for a very short period of time in the July 20-22 period
  • 06z
    GFS model did increase some of the rainfall from France into eastern Europe during the July 20-24 period and some of this increase was needed, although the expected rain will be brief

 

Short
term relief from dryness in France July 20-22 will prove to be more of a tease than a big break, but any moisture will be better than none. Southeastern Europe will continue drying out with the Balkan region already becoming too dry except in central Romania.
The lower Danube River Bas has been and will continue to be the driest region and a great need for rain will continue.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    big changes were noted overnight
  • Rain
    will fall today into the weekend from Victoria and southeastern South Australia to Queensland
    • Amounts
      will be light, but all of the moisture will be welcome and beneficial
  • Rain
    is also expected in Western Australia early next week with a similar impact of benefit expected to winter wheat, barley and canola
  • Quiet
    weather is expected to follow for several days after the early week precipitation diminishes

 

INDIA

  • No
    big changes were noted overnight; rain will continue widespread in much of the nation over the next couple of weeks
    • A
      boost in rain would be welcome in the interior west and especially in the northwest

 

UNITED
STATES

  • Today’s
    second week seems to be a little wetter than previously advertised especially in the two recent GFS model runs, but to some degree the European model has also trended a little wetter
  • World
    Weather, Inc. stands by its comments from last evening with the southwestern part of the Corn Belt and the southern Plains along with parts of the northern Delta and parts of the Tennessee River Basin most likely to experience net drying for a while
  • The
    outlook has certainly become more favorable for pollination – even if the rainfall is overdone, corn loves to have scattered showers warm temperatures and favorable subsoil moisture to promote reproduction and that is exactly what is expected through the next
    ten days
    • Some
      of the rainfall will be erratic and light while other areas get a significant amount of moisture, but the bottom line will continue to be more supportive than detrimental to  corn pollination – at least through July 20
    • There
      is still time for greater drying and as we have been saying for an extended period of time we are a little more concerned about soybean and late corn weather in August and September than we are for early corn – not that corn will be on easy street
    • We
      also believe the southwestern Corn Belt (Kansas, Missouri, southwestern Iowa, southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Illinois) and northern Delta will be the areas to watch most closely over the potential for dryness along with the southern Plains

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

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