PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Conab
soybean production came in below expectations. The US will see localized rain bias Midwest this week before net drying occurs during the 6-10 period. The evening model runs did put rain in the second week of the outlook but compared to what region you look
at for the WCB, it varies.  Soybeans traded at a 4-day low below the psychological $9.00 level but remain near a 4-month high on US weather concerns.  China’s Sinograin sold 65,520 tons of soybeans out of auction.  We hear state owned Chinese crushers bought
1 cargo for 2021 out of Brazil on Tuesday.  Lowest offer Egypt: soybean oil $735.45/ton and sunflower oil at $768/ton.  Global vegetable oil prices are rebounding with Argentina and Brazil latest to appreciate.  Wheat is higher on follow through buying after
production cuts to Black Sea and French wheat. 
Thailand
passed on 193,300 tons of feed wheat.  The Philippines seeks 110,000 tons of feed wheat on July 9.  Japan received no offers for 80,000 tons of feed wheat. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • A
    boost in rainfall was suggested on the 06z GFS model run from eastern South Dakota through the heart of central and southern Minnesota early next week
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was suggested for southern Michigan, Ohio and northern Indiana over the coming week along with parts of Iowa and Illinois
    • This
      reduction was needed
  • The
    European model run was mostly unchanged during the first ten days of the outlook – at least relative to the general theme of weather expected
  • The
    GFS second week outlook was a little drier today relative to that of Tuesday’s model runs
    • Southeastern
      states were advertised wetter July 21-22
      • The
        change was needed
    • Greater
      monsoon moisture was suggested in the July 21-22 period coming northward from Mexico through the central Rocky Mountains to a part of the Dakotas and Minnesota (rainfall was increased during this period of time relative to the last model run)
      • This
        change was been anticipated and may not be correctly timed, but the trend change bringing in this moisture feed is expected during the last ten days of this month
  • Most
    of the computer forecast model runs are in agreement that the July 16-22 period will be warmer biased relative to this first week and that rainfall will be more restricted
    • World
      weather, Inc. agrees with this general idea, but still looks for some westward shift in the mean ridge position in the latter part of this month, although it may only be temporary it should occur
      • For
        now, though, the only models onboard with this theme today is the CFS – be alert for the change
      • When
        the change occurs it may take down the heat a notch or two, but any boost in precipitation will still be somewhat restricted by the amount (or lack thereof) of Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming northward into the Midwest)

 

Overall,
today’s forecast remains favorable for summer crop development across the Midwest in this first week of the outlook despite areas of drying. Erratic rainfall will offer sufficient rain many areas that will slow the drying rates and buy a little time for reproducing
corn protecting its pollination. The few areas of greater moisture stress could threaten yield potentials, but as of today the driest areas are in Michigan and parts of Ohio and northern Indiana which are not quite as important as Illinois, the remainder of
Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota. The second week of drier and warmer weather will accelerate drying rates, but subsoil moisture will likely remain favorable for crop development – at least for a little while longer. Additional rain will be needed in the latter
part of July to protect late season crops.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant change was noted over the coming week
  • Some
    increase in rainfall was suggested in far eastern Ukraine and neighboring areas of northwestern portions of Russia’s Southern region during the latter part of next week
    • Some
      increase was needed
  • GFS
    model run was quite dry in the middle two-thirds of Ukraine today through the end of next week while the European model run has rain in most of Ukraine with some moderate amounts
    • The
      European model run seems to be too wet
  • Canadian
    model has yet another solution for the coming ten days that produces erratic showers in Ukraine and then some greater rain in a part of Russia’s Southern region
  • GFS
    model keeps France in a limited rainfall pattern through the next two weeks
  • Germany
    is advertised to receive rain late next week as well as western Poland and northwestern Czech Republic

 

Today’s
forecast is wetter in Germany, Poland and Czech Republic late next week and into the following weekend. Some of this increase in precipitation was needed and should verify. In the meantime, France will stay in a dry weather pattern through much of the coming
ten days as will portions of Ukraine while some scattered showers will occur in other parts of Ukraine and in some Russia New Lands locations. Confidence in these latter forecast declarations in Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region is low, but there does seem
to be some reason to expect at least a little rainfall during the latter part of next week into the week of July 20. Much more rain will still be needed.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Little
    change was suggested during the first week of the outlook
    • Net
      drying is expected in the Ural Mountains region  while showers occur to the east in the eastern  Russia New lands
  • Rain
    was increased during the second week of the outlook across portions of the Ural Mountains region, although central and south-central parts of the region do not get enough rain to counter evaporation while most other areas get sufficient rain to improve soil
    moisture
    • This
      increase in rainfall still seems to be overdone

 

Overall,
net drying will occur in the Ural Mountains region (central New Lands) over the coming week. World Weather, Inc. believes much of this drying trend will continue in the second week of the outlook and the GFS model run has exaggerated the potential rainfall.
Future model runs will likely reduce some of this second week rainfall.  Crop conditions remain favorable today except near the Kazakhstan border where dryness may be interfering with the best possible crop development. Production potentials are still favorable
and if timely rain occurs later this month and in August crops will perform well. There is potential for some net drying during a part of this period of time and the situation will need to be closely monitored.

 

CHINA

  • Heavy
    rain was reported in the Yangtze River Valley again overnight with rainfall of 3.50 to more than 9.00 inches occurring in the heart of the valley
  • Not
    much change was noted overnight
    • Rain
      still occurs in most of China at one time or another during the next two weeks
    • Some
      reduction in rainfall was suggested overnight for the southern parts of the North China Plain
      • This
        change was needed