PDF attached

 

Morning.  

 

Pure
GFS model looks a little wetter for the heart of the Midwest.  World Weather, Inc. expects a favorable distribution of rain in this first week of the outlook.  IMO, the 7-day does not look all that bad for east of IA.  US crop conditions fell for corn and
were unchanged for soybeans, but overall remain ok.  Chicago & KC wheat is lower on harvest pressure, but MN saw some support overnight from a cut to the French wheat crop. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

  • 06z
    GFS model reduced rain in the eastern Midwest during the first week of the outlook
    • Some
      reduction was needed
  • Overnight
    models have brought a little more rainfall to the Midwest during the second week of the outlook relative to that of Monday
    • Some
      of this increase was needed and some was overdone
  • GFS
    Ensemble is still the preferred model for the upper air wind flow pattern for the second week of the outlook
    • This
      model continues to advertise a progressive ridge of high pressure through the end of this week that moves from west to east across the nation
    • The
      model develops a more significant ridge over the Rocky Mountains and high Plains region this weekend while digging a deeper trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. and focusing rainfall on the southeastern states while a few showers move northwest to
      southeast through the Midwest along a frontal system
    • The
      model keeps the base of the ridge over the southern Plains and southern Rocky Mountain region during the first part of next week while the top of the ridge gets pushed to the east from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes region
    • Ridge
      broadens out late next week with the base of the ridge becoming centered on Missouri, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas July 16; the top of the ridge flattens out late next week
    • A
      high latitudinal zonal (west to east) wind flow pattern aloft evolves for a brief period late next week and into the following weekend keeping rain mostly in the north while lower parts of the Midwest see less rain and warm to hot temperatures – briefly
    • Ridge
      axis then shifts to the high Plains region July 20-23 offering a weak northwesterly flow across the Midwest that will produce some showers in the northern and eastern most parts of the region leaving the southwest to dry out most significantly.

 

Overall,
World Weather, Inc. expects a favorable distribution of rain in this first week of the outlook, although the rain amounts will be highly variable and sometimes too light to counter evaporation while other areas might get a fair amount of rain. The second week
of the outlook will likely be drier than usual in the lower Midwest while some showers occur across the northern Midwest and temperatures will be warmer than usual. Temperatures in this first week of the outlook will briefly cool down during the end of this
week through the weekend and then warming during the early to middle part of next week. The warmest conditions should occur during the middle to latter part of next week through the following weekend with daily highs back into the range of upper 80s and lower
to the middle 90s. That will be the next warmest period after these next three days. Rainfall over the next several days will help to slow drying across the Midwest with some areas experiencing a temporary boost in precipitation. A faster decline in soil moisture
will come with the drier and warmer weather mid- to late-week next week into the second weekend of the outlook.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • Not
    much change was noted through day 10 in Europe
    • France,
      southern parts of the U.K., portions of Germany, Belgium, northwestern Czech Republic and a few areas in Poland will experience net drying and ongoing crop moisture stress
  • Rain
    develops in a part of western Europe July 18-22, although the precipitation is a little erratic and sometimes light
  • GFS
    06z model run produces rain in eastern Ukraine and neighboring areas of southwestern Russia Sunday through Wednesday of next week with 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches
    • The
      increase was overdone, but some increase in rain might evolve briefly during that period
  • Some
    additional showers were suggested for eastern Ukraine July 20-22
    • Some
      of this increase is possible

 

Overall,
the general theme for Europe and the Black Sea region today looks good. There should be a chance for rain in western Europe July 18-22, although it may not be as well distributed as producers would like. Some increase in rainfall may occur in parts of eastern
Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region briefly next week, but it will not be nearly as much as advertised this morning. The relief would likely be temporary.

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Drier
    biased conditions remain over the central New Lands in today’s GFS model runs
    • This
      change occurred last evening and has held since then
    • The
      model runs Monday morning were definitely too wet for the region and these drier biased forecasts are more correct for the coming week
  • Rain
    was increased in the central New Lands July 16-21
    • This
      increase was overdone, although some scattered showers will be possible the high pressure ridge briefly breaks down

 

Overall,
today’s forecast is better than that of Monday. Net drying will occur in the heart of the New Lands during this coming week and then a brief bout of rain is expected July 16-20 before more ridge building occurs and net drying resumes. The rainfall is not likely
to be very great and it would not be surprising to see future model runs reduce the precipitation.

 

 

CHINA

  • Excessive
    rain occurred again overnight in southern Anhui with 12.28 inches resulting in the same area that had reported over 84 inches of rain since June 1
    • Flooding
      in southern Anhui and southern Jiangsu likely continued quite seriously
  • European
    and GFS model runs today continue to advertise additional heavy rainfall over the next few days with more expected next week
  • Not
    much other change was noted for the two week outlook in other areas which means a good mix of rain and sunshine will occur in northern and far southern China

 

 

AUSTRALIA

  • Very
    little change occurred for the first week of the outlook