PDF attached

 

Morning.  
Weather, China demand and fund positions are the key drivers for the higher CBOT prices.  Heat is expected across the Midwest for the balance of the week.  A high-pressure ridge will follow bias WCB and lower Midwest during the second week of the forecast. 
We look for crop conditions to inch lower for corn and soybeans.  SW conditions are projected to decline 2 points while winter wheat may stay stable. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    general theme changes were noted overnight, but concern is rising over missed areas of rain in this first week of the outlook and then drier and warmer weather in the second week that will exacerbate the dryness left over from this first week of precipitation
    • Portions
      of Missouri, Illinois, Michigan and northwestern Indiana may experience the greatest drying in this first week of the outlook
      • Showers
        in these areas will not be sufficient to counter evaporation, although there will be some light rain briefly
    • Week
      two will have a more broad-based lack of rain and warmer temperature regime for much of the Midwest bringing down soil moisture in many areas with those areas listed above that miss this first week’s rain suffering most from dryness in the second week
    • Concern
      about limited northward moving moisture from the Gulf of Mexico remains over the two weeks
  • World
    Weather, Inc. believes the mean ridge position will be over the Plains during weeks  2, 3 and 4 which will support some northwesterly flow aloft across the northern and eastern Midwest at times offering a little rainfall as well
    • The
      rainfall will be below average in many areas because of restricted Gulf of Mexico moisture at times
    • Totally
      dry weather is unlikely, but eventually the driest areas will be in the southwestern Corn Belt; including Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, southwestern Illinois and possibly the northern Delta
  • Temperatures
    will be above average most of the next three weeks with the warmest conditions expected early this week and again from the late weekend through much of next week. Western Corn Belt areas will be warmest in weeks 3 and 4
  • Early
    reproducing corn will perform well, late reproducing corn will be stressed and some of the driest areas could whittle down yields somewhat
  • Soybeans
    may be more at risk of dryness later this summer than corn

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • Concern
    over net drying continues in France, southern parts of the United Kingdom, Belgium, portions of Germany and parts of both Poland and Czech Republic
    • Seasonable
      drying will also occur in Spain and Portugal
  • Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms elsewhere in Europe will be welcome, but the precipitation may become less frequent and less significant over time
  • Eastern
    Ukraine through Russia’s Southern Region to parts of western Kazakhstan will be drying out over the next ten days

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Limited
    rainfall is still advertised for the heart of the Russian New Lands region where net drying is expected and warming will evolve
  • Soil
    moisture will slowly decrease during the next ten days and a close watch on the region east of the Ural Mountains and west of West Siberia is warranted

 

CHINA

  • Additional
    excessive rainfall is expected in the Yangtze River Basin through mid-week this week and then some drier weather will gradually evolve
  • Rain
    is expected in most other areas in China at one time or another with a good mix of rain and sunshine expected for many areas
    • A
      period of net drying may evolve in parts of Heilongjiang and if that occurs for a while in this coming ten days it would prove to be beneficial after frequent rain in recent weeks
    • Southern
      coastal provinces of China may experience some net drying as well during the coming ten days, although a few showers and thunderstorms are expected

 

INDIA

  • India’s
    weather still looks very good over the next ten days to two weeks
    • Northwestern
      areas will be driest this week, but some rain is expected to reach into the region
    • Brief
      periods of excessive rain will occur along the west coast, but should not get very far inland
    • Greater
      rain is expected in Gujarat this week
    • Flooding
      rain is most likely in eastern parts of the nation, including the far Eastern States, Bangladesh and the lower Ganges River Basin
    • Far
      southern India’s rainfall will be more erratic than that in many other areas of the nation and the same will be true for the inter western parts of Maharashtra
    • Temperatures
      will continue hot in northwestern India and neighboring areas of Pakistan where rainfall will be most limited and sunshine most abundant

 

AUSTRALIA

  • Rain
    is expected in New South Wales and Queensland Thursday into Saturday with sufficient amounts expected to benefit establishing winter wheat, barley and canola
    • Moisture
      totals of 0.10 to 0.60 inch with a few amounts over 1.00 inch expected
      • The
        greater amounts will likely be mostly in New South Wales to the immediate west of the Great Dividing Range
  • Rain
    will also fall this week periodically near the southern coast of the nation and in much of Victoria
  • A
    boost in rainfall will still be needed in South Australia and many interior northern and eastern Western Australia locations and more rain may still be desired in Queensland after this week’s showers
  • Western
    Australia will experience greater rainfall late this coming weekend into early next week that will benefit winter crops

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Rain
    over the next ten days will be greatest from southern Paraguay into Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and far southern Parana where some local flooding is possible as multiple inches of rain occur
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