PDF attached

 

Morning.
Mixed trade in the ags this morning but we could see corn and soybeans move higher.  Private exporters sold 202,000 tons of new-crop corn to China and 126,000 new-crop soybeans to China.  Profit taking is seen in corn and soybeans today
ahead of the long US holiday weekend.  News is light.  Today we close early for the US July 4 holiday (12:05 PM CT).  Friday CFTC should release Commitment of Traders.  Banks are open but CBOT will be closed.  China sold all of its corn offered at auction,
roughly 4 million tons.  They also sold 8 million tons of cotton, all offered.  Jordan is in for wheat.  Offshore values are basically flat for soybean oil but leading meal lower.  Look for a light trade today.  USDA export sales were seen neutral for the
soybean complex, lighter side for corn and within expectations for wheat.  US weather outlook was largely unchanged for week one. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    big changes were noted overnight in the first week of the outlook
    • Rain
      was increased in Oklahoma and reduced in central through north-central Texas early next week
      • The
        changes were needed, although a little too much rain may be advertised from southwestern Kansas to western Arkansas
    • Rain
      was reduced in Virginia and increased from northeastern Alabama through Georgia to South Carolina during the first half of next week
    • Temperatures
      are still advertised warmer than usual in the northern Plains and northern Midwest and a little cooler than usual in the Pacific Northwest while seasonable in other key crop areas
  • GFS
    Ensemble pushes ridge axis into the Rocky Mountains July 10 and it prevails there through July 18
  • GFS
    Operational does not push the ridge into the Rocky Mountains and leaves it there, but flattens the top of the ridge and allows high heights to continue over a large part of the Plains and Midwest through July 18 – World Weather, Inc. prefers the GFS Ensemble
    solution
  • GFS
    increased rainfall in the southeastern states for July 9-11
    • Some
      of the increase was overdone
  • GFS
    increased rainfall in southern Canada’s Prairies and in random areas from central Nebraska to central Minnesota
    • The
      Canada increase was needed, but the locally strong storms Nebraska to Minnesota may  have been overdone
  • Scattered
    showers were increased across the Great Lakes region July 12-14
    • Some
      of this increase was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced in the eastern Canada Prairies July 12-14
    • The
      change was needed
  • Rain
    was removed from Missouri and the lower Midwest July 15-16
    • The
      change was needed
  • GFS
    develops a tropical cyclone near the upper west coast of peninsular Florida July 14 and allows the storm to meander near the northwestern Florida coast through July 18 with no landfall, but the center of the storm was nearing Mobile Bay, Alabama on July 18
    • Confidence
      in this tropical event is extremely low

 

The
bottom line to the U.S. outlook remains similar to that of Wednesday with a warm and limited rainfall bias over the next two weeks in the heart of the Midwest. That comes from the operational GFS. World Weather, Inc. is looking for the Ensemble solution to
verify and if that is the case the July 12-18 period is likely to have a little more rainfall in it as a cool front moves across the northern and eastern Midwest during that week and temperatures will be seasonably warm, but not hot. In the meantime, the coming
week will be wettest in the northern Plains and a part of the upper Midwest as well as the Delta and southeastern states with net drying in areas between these two regions. Please be careful to not misinterpret our comments about July 12-18. There will be
some showers in the Midwest during that time, but rainfall will not be great enough to seriously reverse the drying trend, but “some” areas “might” get enough to slow the drying trend.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    change in the first week of the outlook
    • Net
      drying will occur in France, parts of Germany, Belgium, southern England and possibly a few areas in Poland and the Iberian Peninsula
    • Net
      drying also occurs from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region and southwestern Kazakhstan
  • GFS
    increased rain in western Europe July 9-11 and while rain was reduced in northwestern Russia and northeastern Europe
    • Some
      of the increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased July 12-14 from the eastern Balkan Countries into Ukraine and areas north into the Baltic States and western Russia
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was reduced in southern France July 12-14
    • A
      little too much rain may have been removed
  • GFS
    increased rain in the North Sea region July 15-16 while reducing it from southern Germany and a part of the northwestern Balkan region to Belarus and northwestern Russia
    • The
      changes were a little exaggerated
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from Russia’s Southern Region into the Baltic States July 15-16
    • This
      increase was overdone

 

Our
official forecast is not changing for the next ten days. Drier biased conditions will prevail across France, southern parts of the U.K., portions of Germany, Belgium and the Iberian Peninsula. Net drying will also continue from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s
Southern Region and southwestern Kazakhstan. Some increase in shower activity will then be possible in the North Sea region for the period July 12-16 while a net drying bias remains in Russia’s Southern Region and eastern Ukraine. Scattered showers will occur
periodically in most other areas

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    change was noted in the first week of the outlook
    • Net
      drying is still advertised for the central New Lands for much of the coming ten days
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the western New Lands (mostly near and west of the Ural Mountains for July 9-11
    • This
      change was needed
  • Much
    less rain was also suggested for the July 12-16 period as well for all areas from the Ural Mountains region westward
    • This
      change was needed

 

Overall
concern about drying in the central New Lands will rise over the next couple of weeks, although the region is not expected to become too dry for a while. Temperatures will trend warmer, although not hot.