PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

US
weather outlook is largely unchanged.  Talk of dryness after 4th of July for the US Midwest may support prices. 
Corn
futures are higher despite a one-point increase in US crop conditions. Follow through short covering is likely. 
CBOT
corn open interest was down 51,078 contracts on Monday. 
Funds
bought an estimated net 33,000 corn contracts on Monday. 
Yesterday
there was talk China bought up to 20 cargoes of US soybeans over the past week. 
CBOT
soybeans were higher early this morning led by bull spreading, meal slightly higher and soybean oil mixed despite sharply lower Malaysian palm oil (down 44 points).  China futures ended slightly higher.  BRL was firmer at 5.4034 and USD was up 15 points as
of 6:31 am CT.  Heavy deliveries were posted against the July soybean oil contract of 2,402 contracts with customer JP Morgan stopping 2,052.  ADM Investor Services issued 1,017 lots.  US wheat futures were lower for Chicago and KC and higher for MN, in part
to deliveries against the CBOT Chicago contract (nearly spreads weaker), and results from the weekly USDA crop progress report. 
South
Korea’s MFG bought about 60,000 tons of feed wheat at $216.05/ton C&F for arrival around November 30.  Thailand seeks 236,800 tons of feed wheat on July 1 for Aug-Jan 2021 shipment. (3 consignments). 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    general theme changes were noted over the next two weeks
    • First
      week rainfall will be most significant in the northern Plains and from Missouri and western Illinois into the Delta and southeastern states with most of that occurring in the next couple of days except in the southeastern states where rainfall will occur most
      days
  • Week
    two weather will be dominated by a warm temperature regime and scattered showers and of light intensity
    • Northern
      portions of the Plains and upper Midwest will be wettest and net drying is expected in many other areas, despite some shower activity periodically

 

Drying
in the next ten days will be most significant in parts of the eastern Midwest and in the southwestern corner of the Corn Belt. Rain in the northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies will be good for crops in those areas and perhaps in the upper Midwest as well.
Rain will otherwise be greatest in the Delta and southeastern states leaving most areas in between in a net drying mode, despite scattered showers periodically over the next couple of weeks.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    general theme changes were noted over the coming ten days
    • France,
      Spain and Portugal will be driest with a few areas in Germany and the U.K. expected to dry down as well
    • Greatest
      rain will occur from eastern Europe into western Russia
    • Net
      drying is expected from eastern Ukraine through Russia’s Southern Region and in a part of the middle Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan

 

Crop
stress will be rising in France and some neighboring unirrigated areas during the coming ten days. Drying and crop stress will also be significant from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan. Good winter grain harvest conditions are likely,
but dryness will be stressful to unirrigated summer crops in these drier areas. Good crop weather is expected from eastern Europe into western Russia. There is some concern over small grain quality and harvest delays in the Balkan Countries.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant changes were noted in the latest computer weather forecast model runs
    • Scattered
      showers will occur in the New Lands, although rainfall in southern parts of the Ural Mountains region will be limited and dryness may be allowed to prevail in that region.
    • Some
      beneficial moisture will occur in the eastern New Lands where dryness near the Kazakhstan border may be eased

 

A
mostly favorable crop weather environment is expected over the next ten days to two weeks. Sufficient rain will fall to support many crops, although there will be some ongoing concern about areas near the Kazakhstan border in the southern Ural Mountains region
where rainfall will be most limited and temperatures warmest at times.

 

CHINA

  • No
    serious theme changes were noted overnight
    • Most
      of China will receive rain over the next two weeks and some of it will be heavy enough for local flooding
      • Much
        of the widespread flooding of late will be ending
    • Some
      reduction in rainfall was noted for next week in a part of the Northeast Provinces, but rain will falls abundantly during the coming two weeks

 

China
will continue to recover from recent serious flooding and it may take a while for soil conditions in the Yangtze River Basin and some southern parts of the nation to get back to normal after copious amounts of rain this spring and early summer. Additional
pockets of heavy rain are expected and that will induce more localized flooding from time to time. The best crop conditions will be in northern China during the next ten days where a better mix of rain and sunshine is expected.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    major changes occurred in the first ten days of the outlook
  • Some
    increase in rainfall was suggested for Western Australia July 10-14