PDF attached

 

Morning.

Lower
soybeans, higher corn and mixed wheat. Hot and dry conditions are forecast for the US WCB.  China cash crush margins are weaker this morning and the BRL is softer by about 2.4 percent to 5.4840 BRL/USD.  China expanded their list of global meat plants for
import to 15, including a beef plant in Canada and pork plant in Denmark. Algeria and South Korea are in for wheat.  StatsCan showed less than expected wheat, corn and soybean area.  Durum was higher than expected and canola near expectations.   

 

Restricted
rainfall is expected over the next ten days from eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region to western Kazakhstan. U.S. Temperatures will be hot in the southern Plains for much of the next two weeks with frequent highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit. 
The US Ohio River Valley will see 1-3 inches of rain this week through Friday.  The Delta and southeastern region will remain wet.  Other parts of the upper Midwest and western Corn Belt may see restricted rainfall.  It should also remain dry across the central
Great Plains.  The Northern Plains will see rain. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    general theme changes were noted this morning in the latest GFS model run
  • Rain
    intensity was increased in northwestern Illinois, eastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin Tuesday
  • Rain
    was also shifted west out of Manitoba and into eastern Saskatchewan today and Tuesday
  • Rain
    intensity was reduced in the northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern Canada’s Prairies during mid-week next week
    • Some
      of this change was needed
  • Rain
    was increased near the Gulf of Mexico coast from Louisiana to southern Georgia and northern Florida July 6-8
    • The
      reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced from the central Plains into the heart of the Midwest July 9-11
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in the west-central high Plains and across parts of the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin
    • Some
      of the rain boost was needed, but parts of the region were too wet

 

The
morning GFS model run raised the potential for some cooling after July 11 across the northern Plains and Midwest resulting in some opportunity for rainfall as well as lower temperatures. If the model were to verify the change would be welcome and beneficial.
However, the European model does not suggest much of a break from the warm and dry bias.  As you may recall, World Weather, Inc.’s Trend Model has been suggesting July would be drier and warmer than usual at least into the third week and the trend advertised
in most of the models through mid-month certainly are trending in that direction.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    major trend changes were noted over the coming week
    • France
      will be among the driest areas in the continent for the coming week with crop moisture stress on the rise in unirrigated crop areas
    • Timely
      rain occurs in many other areas, although warm temperatures will limit the benefit of some rain in Germany, the U.K., Belgium and Netherlands whereas eastern Europe rainfall will be more beneficial and significant
  • GFS
    model reduced rain in northwestern Europe during mid-week next week and in eastern Europe as well
  • Rain
    was removed from the area extending north from the Balkan Countries into Belarus and the Baltic States July 9-11
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • Rain
    intensity was also reduced in the eastern southeastern Balkans July 12-13 and in northwestern Russia while it was increased in northwestern Europe
    • Some
      of these changes were needed

 

France
will certainly be closely monitored along with a few neighboring areas in the U.K., Germany, Belgium and Netherlands during the next couple of weeks. A part of this region will become too dry. Actually, Some of this region is already too dry and additional
drying is going to worsen crop stress for sunseed, corn, sugarbeets and other crops while racing winter grains and oilseeds to maturation and harvesting. Eastern Europe crop conditions will remain very good with timely rain and sunshine along with warm temperatures
supporting aggressive crop development.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Little
    change was noted across the region in the first week of today’s GFS model run
    • Rain
      was reduced in a part of the eastern New Lands, but the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased during the middle part of next week through the following weekend in the New Lands
    • Some
      of the increase might have been overdone, but timely precipitation should occur at that time
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was noted in the eastern New Lands July 12-13
    • The
      reduction was needed

 

A
mostly favorable environment is advertised for crops in the New Lands during the next two weeks. However, dryness is still present in areas near the Kazakhstan border and the advertised boost in precipitation has yet to occur in this region and if sufficient
relief does not come along in the next couple of weeks there may be more potential for crop moisture stress and lower yield potentials if a period of dry and warm weather evolves later in July. For now, though, production potentials for spring wheat and sunseed
remain good.

 

CHINA

  • No
    significant changes were noted overnight through the next ten days to two weeks
    • Most
      of eastern China will receive rain and amounts will be excessive in the Yangtze River Basin where more horrific flooding may result, but rainfall farther to the north in key grain and oilseed areas will be better mixed with periods of sunshine and crop development
      will advance favorably