FI Morning Grain Comments 06/25/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.
 

 

Weather
is the primary driver in corn while soybeans are higher from strength in soybean oil amid easing concerns US biofuel mandates could be upheld by the both the US Supreme Court and White House Administration.  Dry weather for US spring wheat is limiting losses
for Chicago SRW wheat. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

1-7
DAY

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 25, 2021

• Rain
  in the U.S. Midwest is still expected to be widespread over the next ten days with only the far northwestern Corn Belt and some areas in northwest into the northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies continuing to deal with dryness.
  
• No
  expansion of the dry bias is anticipated and the heart of the U.S. Midwest will be getting enough rain to restore favorable soil moisture for corn pollination next month. 
  
• West
  Texas is still advertised to get significant rain in this coming week and more rain is expected in China.
  
• Europe
  weather is mostly good, although some heat and dryness has recently impacted the western Balkan Countries where greater rain is needed.
  
• Australia
  weather is mostly favorable
• India’s
  week 2 weather for the south and interior west is a little wetter today, but northern India stays dry.
  
• Excessive
  heat and dryness will last for another full week in Kazakhstan spring wheat and sunseed areas along with some neighboring areas of southwestern Russia’s New Lands. 
• Argentina
  weather will  not change much in the coming two weeks with some additional need for moisture, although it is not a crisis
• Brazil’s
  rain will stay mostly in coastal areas and in the region from southern Parana to Rio Grande do Sul
• Brazil
  temperatures for mid-week next week are not as cold in coffee, citrus, sugarcane or grain areas today relative to those of Thursday’s forecasts, but  no serious changes were made to the official coffee outlook
• Thailand
  and Cambodia rainfall will continue lighter than usual for the next ten days while Vietnam sees improved rainfall during week 2

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia
  June 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Monday,
June 28:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
June 29:

• Canada
  Statcan data on seeded area for wheat, durum, canola, barley and soybeans

Wednesday,
June 30:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• U.S.
  acreage data for corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton; quarterly grain stockpiles
• Bloomberg
  New Economy Catalyst; climate and agriculture
• Malaysia
  June 1-30 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Thursday,
July 1:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• World
  cotton outlook update from International Cotton Advisory Committee
• Costa
  Rica, Honduras monthly coffee exports
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• AB
  Sugar trading update
• HOLIDAY:
  Canada, Hong Kong

Friday,
July 2:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

• US
  corn futures are lower on improving US Midwest weather with rain encompassing much of the dry areas of the western Corn Belt. 
  There
  is talk Missouri will get too much rain by the time this rain event ends.  Meanwhile CBOT losses could be limited after Brazil earlier this week saw frost conditions leading to private groups making further downward adjustments to the total corn crop.  Yesterday
  Agroconsult lowered their Brazil second corn crop to 65.3 million tons versus 66.2 in May. 
  
• We
  heard this morning China was in for corn late this week.  USDA export sales yesterday were on the low end but may improve next week reflecting the break in the market last week. 
  
• US
  corn conditions could end up unchanged to up 2 points when reported Monday afternoon. 
  
• China
  hog futures traded over 5 percent higher on Friday on tighter spot supplies for slaughter.  Live hog futures prices were up 5.3% at 18,925 yuan ($2,932.84) per ton at the close.
  
• French
  corn ratings dropped 1 point to 89% as of June 21. 
• Buenos
  Aires Grains Exchange: Argentina 2020-21 corn harvest 47.6%.
• A
  Bloomberg survey calls for the corn area to increase 2.6 million acres to 93.8 million.  Stocks as of June 1 were estimated 4.130 billion bushels, below 5.003 billion a year ago. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• Today
  China’s Sinograin planned to auction off 18,207 tons of imported Ukraine corn. 
  

 

USDA
quarterly hogs and pigs – no surprises.  Inventories are down from a year ago.

 

 

Soybeans

• The
  soybean complex is mixed with soybean oil leading soybeans higher and meal under pressure from lower corn and product spreading.   CBOT SBO registrations declined 50 to only 718 (Emmetsburg, IA).  Traders will be monitoring Supreme Court opinions later this
  morning, looking for arguments over biofuel waivers.  Expect RIN prices to remain influential on soybean oil prices. 
  https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/slipopinion/20 
  
• Brazilian
  soybean basis is higher this morning.

• ICE
  Canola is up for the sixth consecutive day. 
• A
  Bloomberg survey calls for the US soybean area to increase 1.5 million acres to 89.1 million.  Stocks as of June 1 were estimated 0.773 billion bushels, below 1.381 billion a year ago. 
  
• Buenos
  Aires Grains Exchange: Argentina 2020-21 soybean crop 43.5MMT, 100% harvested. Yield 2.67 tons/hectare. 
  
• Palm
  futures were up 99MYR and cash was $25/ton higher.  It gained 2.8% for the week.
• Cargo
  surveyor SGS reported month to date June 25 Malaysian palm exports at 1,167,989 tons, 81,313 tons above the same period a month ago or up 7.5%, and 248,762 tons below the same period a year ago or down 17.6%.  ITS reported a 2.4 percent increase to 1,142,480
  tons.  AmSpec reported a 6 percent increase to 1,174,350 tons. 
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 18 points higher (438 points lower for the week) and meal $4.90/short ton higher ($8.80 higher for the week). 
  
• Rotterdam
  rapeseed and soybean oil prices were 15-30 euros higher, and meal 5-8 euros lower. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures are mostly higher from follow through buying in Minneapolis wheat.  Chicago wheat turned lower near the end of the electronic session.  It could trend higher during the day session if traders fear the heavy rains across the Midwest will impact
  crop conditions and/or harvest progress. 
• While
  the Midwest benefits from rain this week through the weekend, the far northern Great Plains and parts of the Canadian Prairies will dry out, accompanied with hot temperatures.  On Tuesday we will get StatsCan plantings and consensus should show Canada’s wheat
  area could be down from April. 
• September
  Paris wheat was down 0.75 euros at 203.75.
• French
  wheat ratings dropped 2 points to 79% as of June 21. 
• Bloomberg
  reported Russia’s wheat export customs duty will rise to $41.30/ton from $38.10/ton – AgMin. Duty on barley will be unchanged at $39.60.  
  
• Egypt’s
  Minister said they have enough wheat for reserves to last 6.3 months. 

 

Export
Developments. 

• Results
  awaited: Taiwan seeks 55,000 tons of US million wheat on June 24 for Aug 12-26 shipment from the PNW. 
  
• Jordan
  retendered for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close July 6 for Jan/Feb 2022 shipment. 
  
• Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 19. 

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported