FI Morning Grain Comments 06/25/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 
USDA
export sales for soybeans, soybean oil and wheat were within expectations.  Corn was at the lower end of the trade and soybean meal sales were below expectations.  Shipments of meal of nearly 300,000 tons were ok and soybean oil shipments were robust at 52,200
tons.  China is on holiday for the Dragon Boat Festival June 25–27.  September corn dropped for the fourth consecutive session to nearly a one-month low basis September on favorable US weather, even as we hear up to 7 cargoes of US corn was sold to China yesterday
along with at least 4 cargoes of Ukrainian corn.  Another market down four sessions is soybean oil, under pressure today from weaker palm oil (down about 40MYR) after cargo surveyors reported a significant slowdown in palm exports over the June 20-25 period.
Soybeans are lower on coronavirus concerns and higher USD (+41).  Soybean open interest fell 22,561 contracts on Wednesday.  WTI was down 50 cents, below $38.  Bull spreading was a feature in wheat, in part improving global export developments.  Japan bought
their food wheat.  Otherwise corn and soybean export developments were quiet.  Hogs and Pigs are due out after the close. 

 

 

USDA
export sales
for soybeans, soybean oil and wheat were within expectations.  Corn was at the lower end of the trade and soybean meal sales were below expectations.  Shipments of meal of nearly 300,000 tons were ok and soybean oil shipments were robust at 52,200 tons. 

·        
China booked a cargo of corn. 

·        
China booked 172,500 tons of 2019-20 soybeans, and 393,000 tons of new-crop.

·        
Sorghum sales showed net reductions of 1,000 tons.

·        
Pork sales were 24,100 tons.

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

• GFS
  shifted greatest rainfall early next week in central and eastern Dakotas to western North Dakota and enhanced some rain in Manitoba, Canada this morning
• The
  greatest rainfall may  have been shifted a little too far to the northwest, but the European model is also promoting rain for some of the dry region in the northern Plains and eastern Canada’s Prairies
• GFS
  reduced rainfall in the central Midwest over early next week
• The
  reduction was needed
• GFS
  increased rainfall in the northern Delta for Tuesday of next week
• Some
  of the increase was overdone
• GFS
  brings a weak tropical weather system into the central Texas Coast July 5 and diminishes it over eastern Texas with some remnant moisture staying mostly in the Gulf of Mexico Coast states for a few days thereafter
• The
  previous model run brought the system inland near Mobile Bay, Alabama with some of its remnant moisture moving toward the eastern Midwest and middle Atlantic coast region
• Confidence
  in this system is low and its impact on the U.S. should also be low unless it becomes a more significant event
• GFS
  reduced rain in the western Corn Belt July 2-4
• Some
  of the reduction was needed
• GFS
  shifted rain northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coast states into Ohio and the middle Atlantic Coast region July 2-4
• Some
  of the rainfall was overdone
• Rain
  was reduced in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states July 5-7 because of the removal of the tropical system that was previously advertised to move into Alabama and Mississippi July 5
• This
  change was needed
• Rain
  was slightly increased in the northern Plains and upper Midwest July 5-7
• GFS
  increased rain in the Midwest July 8-9 while it was reduced in parts of the Gulf of Mexico Coast states
• Too
  much rain was suggested for the Midwest

 

The
GFS is still presenting a little too much moisture in parts of the Midwest, northern Plains and Gulf of Mexico coast states over the next ten days to two weeks, but some rain is expected to scatter across these areas. The environment will be mostly good for
spring and summer crops. The most important rain may be that which falls in the western Dakotas, and eastern parts of Canada’s Prairies late this weekend through the first half of next week since a part of that region is quite dry and crops need the moisture.
For most other key U.S. crop areas today’s forecast is mostly a status quo outlook with the bottom line being a favorable environment for summer grain and oilseed crops during the next two weeks. There will likely be some pockets of drying and some pockets
of favorable soil moisture, but there is little reason to be concerned about the general health and production potential for U.S. corn, soybeans or sorghum outside of the high Plains region. Dryness will remain a concern in the west-central and southwestern
Plains.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

No
change in the general theme was noted overnight. Net drying is expected in France and some immediate neighboring areas for a while as most other areas in Europe and the western Black Sea region experience some periodic rainfall and good soil moisture. Net
drying is still advertised from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region and neighboring areas of Kazakhstan and that region is already dry or drying out raising concern for late season wheat development and most of the coarse grain and oilseeds produced
in that region. The GFS is still too wet in most of the European continent, including western Russia, especially in the second week of the outlook.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

No
significant changes were noted in the first ten days of the GFS outlook overnight. The bottom line remains quite favorable for most of the New Lands with periodic rainfall expected over the next ten days. Nearly all areas get rain of significance and soil
moisture is still expected to improve near the Kazakhstan border where low soil moisture has been present during most of the spring growing season. Temperatures will remain cool in this first week of the outlook but should warm back to a more normal to slightly
warmer than normal regime in the July 3-9 period.

 

CHINA

No
serious change was noted overnight. Most of China gets rain and amounts are advertised to be heavy at times in the Yangtze River Basin and some areas to the south in both weeks of the forecast. Northeastern China and the Yellow River Basin will experience
a good mix of rain and sunshine with dryness being eased from areas near and north of the Yellow River.

 

INDIA

Rain
is expected to be abundant and widespread across the subcontinent during the next two weeks. Today’s GFS forecast model run at 06z did increase rain intensity in central parts of the nation with heavy rainfall and flooding likely in Madhya Pradesh and immediate
neighboring areas during the forecast period. Heavy rain is also still being advertised for the far eastern parts of the nation and along the west coast, but those areas of heavy rain were already being consistently advertised previously.

 

AUSTRALIA

No
significant change was noted overnight. No major storm systems are expected in the next two weeks, but some occasional light precipitation will occur in crop areas near the nation’s coasts maintaining good crop conditions in those areas. Greater rain is still
needed in Queensland and interior South Australia as well as other areas, but they are, by far, the driest areas.

 

South
America

• The
  06z GFS model was greater with rainfall in southern Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo, Brazil mostly in the July 4-7 period
• The
  increase in rainfall was overdone and unlikely to verify
• Otherwise,
  there were very few changes

 

Argentina
is still advertised to receive restricted amounts of rain leaving western parts of the nation too dry and in need of rain of better winter crop establishment. Eastern crop areas may dry down a bit, too, but soil moisture is more favorable and winter crops
are establishing well in those areas. Too much rain from Parana southward into Rio Grande do Sul Brazil is liable to result in excessive soil moisture and some flooding which might not bode well for winter wheat in parts of the region. Lighter rain farther
north in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Sao Paulo will be welcome by winter wheat and should bring some improved crop development after recent drying. Rain may slow some southern Safrinha corn maturation and harvest progress. Some delay to sugarcane,
coffee and citrus harvesting might also occur.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
June 25:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for June 1-25
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, 3pm

FRIDAY,
June 26:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

·        
US GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q1 F: -5.0% (est -5.0%; prev -5.0%)

·        
US Personal Consumption Q1 F: -6.8% (est -6.8%; prev -6.8%)

·        
US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 F: 1.7% (est 1.6%; prev 1.6%)

·        
US Initial Jobless Claims Jun 20: 1480K (est 1320K; prevR 1540K; prev 1508K)

·        
US Continuing Jobless Claims Jun 13: 19522K (est 20000K; prevR 20289K; prev 20544K)

·        
US Durable Goods Orders May P: 15.8% (est 10.5%; prev -17.7%)

·        
US Durable Goods Ex Transportation May P: 4.0% (est 2.1%; prev -7.7%)

·        
US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air May P: 2.3% (est 1.0%; prev -6.1%)

·        
US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air May P: 1.8% (est -1.0%; prev -5.7%)

·        
US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) May P: -1.2% (est 0.4%; prev 0.3%)

·        
US Retail Inventories (M/M) May: -6.1% (est -2.0%; prev -3.6%)

·        
US Advance Goods Trade Balance May: -74.3B (est -68.2B; prevR -70.7B; prev -69.7B)

 

 

 

Corn.

·        
Widespread selling pressure in global grains and oilseeds continued into Thursday from negative outside markets.  IMF revised lower its global GDP forecast to negative 4.9 percent from negative 3.0 percent April estimate.  USA
was projected to contract 8.0 percent and EU (“Euro Zone”) by 10.2 percent.  2021 global GDP was projected to rebound 5.4 percent. 

·        
September corn dropped for the fourth consecutive session to nearly a one-month low basis September on favorable US weather, even as we hear up to 7 cargoes of US corn was sold to China yesterday along with at least 4 cargoes
of Ukrainian corn.  WTI is lower and USD was up sharply again. 

·        
China is on holiday for the Dragon Boat Festival June 25–27. 

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 5,000 corn contracts on Wednesday.  Previous two days they sold 28,000 contracts. 

• US
  weekly ethanol production was up 52,000 barrels to 893,000 and stocks fell 312,000 to 21.034 million.  A Bloomberg poll looked for production to be up 32,000 at 811,000 barrels (and stocks to decrease 14,000 barrels. 
  

·        
The USDA hogs and pigs report will be out on Thursday.  All hogs as of June 1 is projected to increase 3.7 percent from a year ago.  Trade estimates are below the ethanol tables. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• None
  reported

 

Top
corn exporting countries, spot USD/ton

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.

• CBOT
  soybeans are
  lower on increasing coronavirus concerns and lower soybean oil.  A higher USD, by 38 points at the time this was written, lower equity markets and sub $38/barrel WTI crude oil are all contributing to the pressure. 
  
• China
  is on holiday for the Dragon Boat Festival June 25–27. 
• CBOT
  soybean open interest fell 22,561 contracts on Wednesday.

·        
Another market down four sessions is soybean oil, under pressure today from weaker palm oil (down about 40MYR) after cargo surveyors reported a significant slowdown in palm exports over the June 20-25 period.

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 5,000 soybeans contracts on Wednesday, bought 2,00 meal and sold 5,000 soybean oil.  

• Rotterdam
  values this morning showed soybean oil for the August/September position was down 10 euros from this time previous session, rapeseed oil down 8 in the nearby, and soybean meal when imported from South America mixed. 
  
• Offshore
  values this morning was leading CBOT soybean oil 17 points lower and meal $0.40 lower. 
  

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 47 cents per bushel and compares to 40 cents a week ago and 65 cents around this time last year.

·        
Malaysia: 
Lower
on slowing June 20-25 palm exports

·        
ITS: Malaysian palm oil exports for the June 1 – 25 period rose 37.2 percent to 1,390,860 tons from 1,014,000 tons month earlier.  AmSpec reported a 35.5 percent increase to 1,401,996 tons from 1,034,829
tons.  In comparison, SGS reported June 1-20 exports up 50 percent to 1.21 million tons. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Results
  awaited:  Syria will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Wheat

• Harvest
  pressure and improving Northern Hemisphere weather conditions are pressuring back month US wheat futures positions while the nearby are finding light support from a rise in global export developments.  Japan bought food wheat.  There are a few bullish points
  out there. 

·        
The European Commission on Thursday lowered the EU soft wheat production to 117.2 million tons from 121.5 million month ago. The took exports down to 25 million tons from 26.5 million previously. 

• Paris
  December wheat was down 0.50 euros at 180.25 at the time this was written.
  
• Ukraine’s
  economy ministry may set the limit for wheat exports at 17.2 million tons for 2020-21.
• Ukraine’s
  UGA revised down its 2020 wheat harvest forecast to 26.5 million tons from a previous 26.8 million tons.  They see the corn harvest at 37-38 million tons.
  

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 4,000 Chicago wheat contracts on Wednesday. 

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Japan bought 101,243 tons of food wheat this week. 

• Ethiopia
  seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on July 10 for shipment within two months.    
  

 

Rice/Other

• None reported