PDF attached

 

Morning.

Today
and Monday expect positioning ahead of USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.  Hogs and Pigs report was viewed supportive for corn and soybean meal, bearish for hogs. 
Weather
remains a key driver which is pressuring soybeans and wheat, limiting gains in corn.  Malaysian palm oil futures slid 4 percent this week on weaker mineral oil, rising palm production, and slowing of palm exports.  France reported softy wheat ratings unchanged
from the previous week, but they remain at well below average levels.  News is very light with China on holiday.  CBOT corn open interest rose over 27,000 contracts on Thursday in part to new shorts and surge in option plays.  The funds sold an estimated net
58,000 corn contracts over the combined four days.  Later we get CFTC COT data as of Tuesday evening. 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

UNITED
STATES

  • Rain
    was reduced from southeastern Iowa into central and southwestern Illinois and eastern Missouri while increased in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during mid-week next week
    • Some
      of the change was needed
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was suggested for next week western Manitoba, Canada with 2.00 to 4.50 inches suggested previously and now amounts are 1.00 to 3.00 inches
    • The
      reduction was needed
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from the Delta into the Tennessee River Basin and a part of the eastern Midwest July 3-5
    • Some
      of the increase in rainfall was overdone
  • GFS
    removed rain from the central Midwest July 6-8
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was also shifted to the north from a region from South Dakota and northern Nebraska to Wisconsin and far northern Illinois to the region from North Dakota to northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin July 6-8
    • Some
      of this change was needed and may verify
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from North Dakota and northeastern Montana to northwestern Iowa July 9-10
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • GFS
    rain in the southeastern states was reduced July 9-10
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • The
    tropical disturbance previously advertised this week to come into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually move inland over the Gulf of Mexico coastal region has been minimized to an ill-defined tropical wave today in both the 00z and 06z GFS model runs which is
    more consistent with the European and Canadian forecast models of most days this week.

 

The
bottom line for the next two weeks will change from scattered showers and thunderstorms in many Midwestern, northern Plains, Delta and southeastern states in this first week of the outlook to rain that is mostly confined to the northern Plains, upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region and in the Gulf of Mexico coast states in week two. Areas in between and in the southern Plains will likely experience a more limited rainfall pattern during the second week of the outlook and these second week trends could prevail into
week three.  The bottom line should be good for crops in the northern Plains, Canada’s Prairies, the northern Midwest and some areas in the Gulf Coast States while some net drying may eventually develop in the lower Midwest and in the south half of the Plains.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    general theme changes were noted in the first week of the outlook, although the GFS has removed some rain to many areas in northern Europe
    • The
      lighter rainfall was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the Balkan Countries July 3-5
    • Some
      of this change was needed, but the model may have removed too much moisture
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from the eastern Balkan Countries into western Ukraine and Belarus July 6-8
    • Some
      of the increase may have been a little overdone, but a little boost might have been needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain from eastern Europe into northwestern Russia July 9-10
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed, but too much rain may have been removed

 

Concern
about France will continue as the GFS and Canadian Models downplay rainfall for the next ten days. The GFS keeps rain limited in northwestern Europe through the entire two-week period with some expansion of the drying trend into Germany and Poland during the
second week of the outlook. The GFS has likely taken too much moisture out of northern Europe in the second week, the region will need to be closely monitored – especially France. The European model is a little more generous with rain in France and areas east
into Poland, but it may be a little too wet. World Weather, Inc. expects drying in France to be most significant, but there will be pockets of limited rainfall a little farther to the east, but the region should not be as dry as the GFS suggests. In the meantime,
conditions in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region looks to be quite dry which may promote quick winter wheat maturation and eventual good harvest conditions, but summer crops in the region will become more seriously stressed over time.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • Very
    little change occurred in the first week of the outlook
  • The
    second week of the outlook has moved around some of the wetter and drier biased areas with some net increase in rainfall for central parts of the New Lands
    • Some
      of the increase in rainfall may have been overdone
  • The
    second week of the outlook will trend warmer after several more days of very cool conditions this weekend into early next week

 

The
bottom line remains favorable for much of the New Lands during the next two weeks. Partial relief to dryness near the Kazakhstan border is expected. Warming that occurs in the second week of the outlook should stimulate faster crop development which is needed
after the recent extended period of cool conditions. The warmer weather will accelerate drying rates and that will boost the demand for rain later in July. Rain in this next week to ten days will be welcome and should prevent dryness problems from evolving
for a while, but it is still unclear how significant the rainfall will be for some areas.

 

CHINA

China’s
weather has not changed much with rain expected in most of the nation. Some of the rain will be excessive in east-central and some interior southern locations resulting in more flooding and additional crop problems. Rain in the north will be best for the lingering
dry areas north of the Yellow River, but sufficient moisture in the northeastern provinces will be good for corn, soybeans, sugarbeets and spring wheat. Some drying might be welcome for a little while in Heilongjiang where it has been a little too wet at times.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    change was noted in the first week of the outlook with showers mostly brief and light in each of the crop areas
  • Some
    increase in rainfall was suggested in the July 4-5 weekend in Western Australia
    • Some
      increase in rainfall was possible at that time

 

The
bottom line for Australia remains very good for wheat, barley and canola establishment in Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Greater rain is still needed in Queensland and interior South Australia