FI Morning Grain Comments 06/24/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Bull
spreading a feature in the CBOT soybean complex. The USD is trading lower and WTI higher. This seems to be an all-around reversal from yesterday. Corn is higher led by the back months and wheat higher with funds driving Chicago.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 24, 2022

• Not
  much change overnight
• Two
  rain events will move through the U.S. Midwest offering relief from dryness in the eastern crop areas and areas south into a part of northern Texas, the Delta and Tennessee River Basin during the next two weeks
  
• A
  first event is expected Sunday into Monday, but with the Gulf of Mexico Closed as a moisture source during this event resulting rainfall is expected to be disappointing
• A
  second rain event expected in the first days of July offers the most important rain event for the drier areas of the Midwest and early indications suggest partial relief is expected, but some areas will not do as well as they need to
• No
  excessive heat is expected in key U.S. crop areas, but a short term bout of warmer than usual conditions are expected during the middle to latter part of next week ahead of the June 1-3 precipitation event
  
• Cooling
  is expected this weekend into early next week in the Plains and Midwest
• West
  Texas will get rain Sunday into Tuesday and again in the early days of July
  
• Locally
  great rainfall is possible, but most of the precipitation will be light
• Dryland
  production areas of corn, cotton, sorghum and peanuts will not see enough rain to seriously change the bottom line
• Canada’s
  Prairies will see a good mix of weather as will the U.S. Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
• Western
  Europe is expecting more rain to benefit crops in France, Germany and the U.K. while eastern Europe dries down over the next week to ten days
• Portions
  of Russia’s Southern Region and Ukraine will get some dryness relief as showers occur into early next week
  
• More
  rain may be needed in parts of both regions
• Recent
  relief in the North China Plain will be followed up with another bout of rain this weekend into early next week
  
• The
  Moisture will improve many dryland summer crops, although timely rain will still be needed in July to support the improving trend
• India’s
  Monsoon has performed a little better, but it has not been ideal 
• The
  increasing precipitation trend will continue into July, though
• Queensland,
  Australia may get some rain late next week, but key winter crop areas may miss some of the precipitation 
  
• Most
  of Australia’s winter crop areas are experiencing a good mix of weather for planting and establishment of wheat, barley and canola
• A
  part of Argentina’s winter wheat region that has been dry will get rain early next week and possibly again in the following weekend, July 1-2

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 24:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Brazil’s
  Unica to release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• US
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter
• HOLIDAY:
  New Zealand

Monday,
June 27:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  crop conditions for spring and winter wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton; harvest progress for winter wheat, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Chile

Tuesday,
June 28:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s Transfer of Technology seminar

Wednesday,
June 29:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• OECD-FAO
  agriculture outlook report
• Vietnam’s
  general statistics dept releases June coffee, rice, rubber export data
• USDA
  hogs & pigs inventory, 3pm

Thursday,
June 30:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• USDA’s
  quarterly stockpile data for wheat, barley, corn, oat, soy and sorghum, noon
• US
  acreage for corn, soybeans and wheat
• US
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• Malaysia’s
  June palm oil export data

Friday,
July 1:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Monthly
  coffee exports from Costa Rica and Honduras
• International
  Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook report
• USDA
  soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Australia
  commodity index
• HOLIDAY:
  Canada, Hong Kong

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Building Permits May: 1.695M (prev 1.695M)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures
are higher led by the back months from uncertainty over global supplies following the Ukraine situation. US weather should limit new-crop downside.

·        
First Notice Day for deliveries are a week away. We see no corn deliveries at the moment. There could be Chicago and KC wheat deliveries, and some rice. Soybean oil could be 0-100. No meal and no soybeans.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

Due
out Friday, this afternoon

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are seeing bull spreading, contrary to recent action. Products are following the price reaction.

·        
September Malaysia palm oil.

·        
China futures. 

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were down 40-50 euros, and meal 1-6 lower.

·        
Offshore values are leading SBO about 200 points higher (234 higher for the week) and meal $4.20 higher ($10.80 lower for the week).

 

Export
Developments

·        
China will be back late next week selling a half a million tons of soybeans out of reserves 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mixed with trader assessing good global weather versus recession fears.

·        
Paris September wheat was dup 0.25 euro earlier at 359.25 euros per ton, still a two-month low.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Saudi Arabia seeks 480,000 tons of wheat for Nov-Jan shipment.

·        
Pakistan seeks 500,000 tons of wheat on July 1, optional origin, for Aug/FH Sep shipment.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on July 5 for shipment within 40 days.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported