PDF attached

 

Morning
US
weather will remain good.  GFS is wetter than the European models. WCB will remain on the drier side over the next 7 days.  It was heard of that China bought another 2 US cargoes of soybeans, both out of the Gulf for Q4 shipment, and one Brazilian cargo for
Sep/Oct. Soybeans and corn and wheat are higher despite rising concerns over the recent spike in US Covid-19 cases.  Anec sees Brazil June soybean exports at 12.6 million tons.  Weaker Malaysian palm (down 30MYR) is weighing on SBO.  Lock closers for repairs
along the IL will start July 1 and we are hearing corn is starting to flow out of the Great Lakes destined for the EU.  US wheat was struggling to trade higher. Harvest pressure was winter wheat was in focus.  Japan received no offers for feed wheat or barley. 
China sold another 4MMT of corn out of auction. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

UNITED
STATES

  • Rain
    was increased in Montana and western North Dakota early next week and from Minnesota to Wisconsin Sunday into Tuesday
    • Some
      of these increases was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in Missouri and southwestern Illinois early next week while it was reduced in Tennessee and neighboring areas
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was reduced in central and eastern Manitoba early next week
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced from Illinois to Minnesota late next week
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in Montana and western North Dakota late next week
    • Some
      of the increase was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in the Atlantic coast states and reduced in Alabama
    • The
      increase in rainfall was a little overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in the southeastern states and reduced in the Delta July 4-6 as a tropical cyclone moves inland into the southeastern states
    • Confidence
      in this tropical cyclone outlook is very low
  • Rain
    was reduced in the northwestern Corn Belt July 4-6
    • The
      reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced in the eastern Midwest July 4-6
    • The
      change is a byproduct of the tropical cyclone in the southeastern states making confidence in this change low

 

The
bottom line to today’s outlook remains not very threatening from a Midwest, Delta and southeastern U.S. crop development and rainfall perspective. The GFS is still generating too much rain, but at the same time the drier European model is not exactly offering
much reason for concern over crop conditions in the next couple of weeks either outside of a pocket or two . Net drying in the west-central central and southern Plains maintains reason for concern because of ongoing drought conditions and potential for that
situation to be perpetuated. The western U.S. dryness, however, will only reinforce a mean ridge position to the west of the Midwest limiting the potential for persistent excessive heat and dryness over key corn and soybean production areas in the long-term
outlook. Monsoonal rainfall will evolve in the southwestern states in late July and that could have some influence on weather, but not before then. The presence of a high-pressure ridge aloft over the Midwest for a while next week is still viewed as a temporary
event with the ridge relocating to the west in the high Plains region during the second week of July.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    significant changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • Rain
    was reduced in Europe late next week
    • The
      reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was also increased in much of Europe July 4-6
    • Some
      increase was needed, but a little too much rain was advertised
  • Rain
    was reduced in the Balkan Countries July 7-8
    • The
      change was needed
  • A
    few showers will returned to northern Europe and northwestern parts of the CIS July 7-8
    • This
      change was needed

 

The
bottom line remains favorable for most of the European continent, despite some variation from one model run to another over the distribution of rain. World Weather, Inc. believes the European and Canadian models are probably more correct than the GFS in the
sense of limiting rainfall in western Europe for a while and in limiting some of the rain in northwestern Russia. The European model has a little more rain in Russia’s Southern Region and eastern Ukraine that seems unlikely to expect, although some showers
may drift into those areas briefly in the coming ten days. A big change in soil or crop conditions does not seem very likely for those eastern Black Sea locations. For the most part the situation in Europe and the Black Sea region is not expected to change
much in the next ten days. Keep an eye on northwestern Europe and northwestern Russia, however, for signs of some drying.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • Some
    increase in northern New Lands rain was suggested for late next week
    • Some
      of the increase was logical
  • Showers
    were also increased July 4-6 in western and northern parts of the New Lands
    • Some
      of this was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in the northeastern New Lands July 7-8
    • Some
      of this may have been overdone as well

 

The
bottom line is a little drier for areas near the Kazakhstan border today versus that of other recent days in the second week of the forecast. If that change verifies it will add pressure for rain to reach into those drier areas in this first week of the outlook
as has been advertised consistently in recent days. Drier weather in the second week of the outlook in the southeastern New Lands would not have much impact on crops or production potential as long as this first week was favorably moist. Most other areas will
likely continue to experience mostly good crop development potential.

 

CHINA

  • No
    significant changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • Rain
    was increased in far northeastern and east-central China by the GFS model run for late next week
    • The
      increase was needed after the previous model run was a little too dry
  • GFS
    was much drier for the North China Plain July 4-6
    • Some
      drying was needed, but the model run may have taken away too much moisture
  • GFS
    increased rain intensity in the Yangtze River Basin July 4-6