PDF attached

 

Morning

 

Talk
of China shopping for US wheat over the weekend maybe limiting downside movement in US wheat futures.  US wheat harvest pressure is seen in the mix.  IKAR increased their view of the Russian wheat crop to 79.5 million tons from 78 million previously.  Corn
and soybeans are lower after rallying late last week.  Egypt bought 59,000 tons of soybean oil for Aug 10-30 delivery, at 10,925 Egyptian pounds ($675.63/ton).  It is estimated China bought up to 17 cargoes of soybeans last week. China crush margins remain
low but don’t discount China buying US soybeans as they remain cheaper than Brazil, at least for the 2020 positions. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

UNITED
STATES

  • GFS
    model is not nearly as aggressive with ridge building over the Midwest during the early to middle part of next week as the European and Canadian Models; however rising heights do occur in the balance of next week that results in progressively drier biased
    conditions as the first week of July draws to a close
  • Today’s
    GFS model run did not offer much change to rainfall in this first week of the outlook, although ha little less rain was suggested for parts of the lower Midwest and central Plains
  • A
    little less rain in the upper Midwest was suggested for early next week and a little more in Michigan and immediate neighboring areas of Indiana, northeastern Illinois and Ohio
    • These
      changes seem reversed and the 00z model run may have been better in suggesting more rain in the upper Midwest and less in the southern Great Lakes region
  • Rain
    was reduced in the lower Midwest during mid-week next week
    • The
      change was needed
  • The
    GFS model run reduced rain in the southwestern Corn Belt and a part of the central Plains July 2-4 while a boost in rain was suggested from Michigan to Virginia and North Carolina
    • The
      reduction was needed and some of the rainfall increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in the Delta and interior southeastern states July 2-4
    • This
      was overdone as well
  • Tropical
    cyclone advertised in the Gulf of Mexico July 5-6 was relocated from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Gulf of Mexico
    • Rainfall
      was suppressed over the Midwest, Delta and central and southern Plains as the tropical cyclone approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coast
      • Rain
        was reduced in the southeastern states, Midwest and central Plains and increased in the northwestern Plains and southwestern Canada Prairies as well as a part of the upper Midwest
        • Some
          of these changes were needed, but they were all a byproduct of the relocated tropical cyclone and confidence in that tropical event is still very low raising potential for big changes in future model runs for days 11-15

 

The
bottom line continues to promote rain over this coming week in key U.S. crop areas with alternating periods of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. The environment will be very good for most coarse grain and oilseed production areas. Winter wheat areas will
not get so much rain that grain quality is compromised. Dryness in the high Plains is not expected to be relieved in a significant manner, but there will be opportunities for rain in both the southwestern Plains and the far northwestern Plains and the drier
areas of southeastern Canada’s Prairies. Week two of the forecast is expected to begin drying out and heating up as high pressure begins to build aloft and northward moving moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is reduced.

 

 

EUROPE

  • Less
    rain in northwestern Europe is expected for a while this week as high pressure dominates the region
  • Eastern
    Europe, including western Ukraine and areas north into Belarus and Poland, will receive periods of rain for a while this week
  • Not
    much change was noted in the first week of the rainfall outlook, although rain was reduced in northern France and Belgium
    • This
      reduction in rainfall was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced for early next week in Ukraine, southwestern Russia and eastern Europe
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was shifted out of the western CIS and southeastern Europe into the North and Baltic Sea regions July 2-4
    • The
      reduction in rainfall was needed, but rain in the North and Baltic Sea region’s was considered too intense and too far to the east and south
  • Rain
    was shifted out of northwestern Russia and into Scandinavia July 5-6
    • The
      reduction in rain was needed, but the wetter bias in Scandinavia was incorrect as well

 

The
bottom line is for rain to fall in eastern Europe and the western CIS early to mid-week this week while western Europe is drying out. The late week and weekend will bring decreasing rainfall in eastern Europe and the western CIS while some rain develops in
northwestern Europe. After that, next week’s weather will be dominated by less rain in northeastern Europe and the northwestern Russia while rainfall occurs erratically in northwestern Europe and from the Balkan Countries into a part of the Black Sea region.

 

 

RUSSIA’S
NEW LANDS

  • Cool
    weather is still expected this week across most of the production region
  • Some
    rain is expected in the previously driest areas of the southeastern New Lands near the Kazakhstan border to offer some improvement to topsoil moisture
  • No
    significant change in this first week of the outlook was suggested which includes much of the wetter bias noted above
  • Some
    increase in rainfall was noted for the Ural Mountains region early next week
    • This
      event was overdone
  • Rain
    was increased July 5-6 in the Ural Mountains region
    • This
      rain was overdone

 

The
bottom line offers relief to dryness near the Kazakhstan border during the next week to ten days as rain and cooler biased conditions evolve. Most of the New Lands will need some warmer weather after the first week of July so that crops can fully utilize the
rain that is expected in this first week to ten days.

 

 

CHINA

  • China’s
    weather has trended wetter in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain in the coming week of weather relative to that of Friday in the past couple of days
    • The
      increase in rainfall is expected to verify and that will lead to the reduction of dryness in these areas
  • Rain
    falls in most of China at one time or another during the coming week and the second week is wet biased in the Yangtze River Basin and parts of the interior southeast
  • Northeast
    China continues to get a good mix of rain and sunshine throughout the two-week forecast period
  • </