FI Morning Grain Comments 06/21/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.
 

 

WASHINGTON,
June 21, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 336,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Lower
trade this morning on improving US weather.  Northern Midwest and WCB saw good rains over the weekend that provided relief to drought areas.  The 1-7 day US precipitation outlook appears wetter for the central to lower US, bias ECB, then that of Friday.  News
was light over the weekend.  Egypt on June 22 seeks soybean oil and sunflower oil for September 5-30 arrival.  Trade estimates for the end of June reports should be out within the next couple of days. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

1-7
DAY

 

WORLD
WEATHER INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 21

 

Rain
will continue to impact many areas in the U.S. key crop areas excepting the far northwest. Today’s model runs offer an upper level low pressure center for late this weekend into early next week for the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but World Weather,
Inc. believes the system will not verify well for rain in the northern Plains or upper Midwest. There is also another tropical cyclone advertised for the Gulf of Mexico for next week that is interring with week two forecasts in the United States and some caution
is needed in deciding what weather will be next week. The odds are good that some ridge building will be back in the U.S. Plains during the July 2-5 period, but how significant that is remains to be seen. In the meantime, dry and warm weather will prevail
from the heart of Russia’s Volga River Basin into Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan this week. 

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Sunday,
June 20:

• China
  customs publishes country-wise import data for farm goods such as soybeans and corn

Monday,
June 21:

• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• Monthly
  MARS report on EU crop conditions
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
June 22:

• Copersucar,
  one of Brazil’s top sugar and ethanol exporters, holds presser on the market’s outlook
• Future
  Food-Tech’s Alternative Proteins Summit, day 1
• OECD
  to release agricultural policy evaluation report
• U.S.
  cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm

Wednesday,
June 23:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Future
  Food- Tech’s Alternative Proteins Summit, day 2

Thursday,
June 24:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• International
  Grains Council monthly report
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
June 25:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysia
  June 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn

• US
  corn futures are lower on improving US weather.  Other fundamental news was light.  US energy prices are lower.  USD was off 15 points at the time this was written. 
  
• Cooler
  US temperature this week should slow evaporation rates for parts of the US WCB. 
  
• Note
  41 percent of IA growing regions was experiencing some type of drought as of last week. 
  
• Funds
  bought an estimated net 18,000 corn contracts on Friday. 

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported. 

 

 

Soybeans

• The
  US soybean complex is lower on US weather and expectations for US soybean conditions to start to stabilize after possibly seeing a small downgrade this afternoon.  Many growing areas across the upper Midwest and WCB saw beneficial rains over the weekend. 
  USDA reported 336,000 tons of soybeans for China (2021-22) and 120,000 tons of soybeans for unknown (2021-22). 
  
• We
  see strong support for July soybeans at $12.94 and November at $11.60 (well below current value). 
  
• We
  look for futures price volatility to calm down this week. 
• Additional
  statistics from China trade data were released.  China imported 9.23 million tons of Brazil soybeans in May, up from 5.08 million tons in April (15.66 tons Jan-May from Brazil).   China also imported 244,431 tons from the US. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading SBO 238 points lower and meal $7.40/short ton higher. 
• China
  cash crush margins are nearly unchanged from the previous week and unfavorable when using the imported price of US spot soybeans. 
  
• Rotterdam
  rapeseed and soybean oil prices were mixed euros lower, and meal 2-9 euros higher. 
  
• Funds
  on Friday bought an estimated net 18,000 soybean contracts, bought 6,000 soybean meal and bought 7,000 soybean oil contracts. 
  
• ITS
  reported Malaysian palm oil exports for the June 1-20 period at 945,745 tons, down 0.8% from the same period a month ago.  SGS reported a 1.8% decrease for June 1-20 palm oil exports to 937,135 tons. 
  
• (Reuters)
  – “Indonesia will change its palm oil export levy scheme to reduce the highest rate to $175 per ton soon, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said on Monday, compared with $255 per ton under the current rules.  A new regulation will soon be issued for authorities
  to collect a $50 per ton export levy when crude palm oil prices reach a minimum of $750 per ton, she said. For every $50 increase in prices, the levy will rise by $20 for crude palm oil and $16 for derivative products, but there will be a ceiling rate of $175
  when CPO prices go above $1,000.“
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil:  

 

Export
Developments

• WASHINGTON,
  June 21, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 336,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

• Egypt
  seeks soybean oil and sunflower oil on June 22 for September 5-30 arrival. 
  

 

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat futures are lower following weakness in corn and soybeans.  News was light over the weekend.  We should see a good jump in US winter wheat harvesting when updated later today after parts of the growing areas dried down last week.  Harvesting should peak
  in 2 to 3 weeks. 
• Russian
  wheat exports so far this crop-year are running about 10 percent above year ago.  Grain exports could reach above 48.5 million tons.  38 million of wheat had been shipped as of mid-June. 
  
• September
  Paris wheat was 2.75 euros lower at 205.50. 
• Funds
  on Friday
  bought an estimated net 12,000 SRW wheat contracts. 

 

Export
Developments. 
*NEW

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 22 for December shipment. 
• Jordan
  is back in for feed barley on June 23 for Nov/Dec shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

• None
  reported