FI Morning Grain Comments 06/18/20

PDF attached includes Broiler Report charts, Cattle on Feed estimates and USDA export sales charts

 

Morning. 
US
weather is the primary focus for the CBOT agriculture markets.  Rumors China bought a small amount of US agriculture goods was in play yesterday, but we can’t confirm sales.  USDA export sales were ok for soybeans, low for corn, SBM & SBO, and good for wheat. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

UNITED
STATES

• No
  change in the general theme of weather was noted overnight
• Many
  areas in the Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will get rain over the next ten days
  
• Relief
  from recent drying and heat will be welcome
• Subsoil
  moisture will be conserved
• Increases
  in topsoil moisture are likely
• Drier
  and warmer weather is expected to evolve in the Plains during the last days of June and early July
• Parts
  of the western Corn Belt and Delta will also be involved with this drier bias in early July
• West
  Texas dryland cotton, corn, peanut and sorghum areas will receive some rain periodically in the next ten days, but it will be erratic with some counties getting significant amounts while many others mostly light rainfall
• Temperatures
  will be very warm most days and that will keep daily evaporation rates high and limit the period of benefit from any rain that falls

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

• No
  significant theme changes were noted overnight
• Rain
  will be diminishing over the next few days in western Europe as a high pressure ridge builds into the region
• Rain
  will occur most frequently and significantly in eastern Europe through the weekend
• High
  pressure ridge over western Europe this weekend will expand to dominate much of Europe next week
• Ridge
  is advertised to be progressive with it shifting into the western CIS in the last days of this month
• This
  shift to the east allows rain to return in western Europe in the last days of June and early July with a new high pressure ridge coming into the far west part of Europe July 4
• This
  solution differs from that of the 00z model run in which there is no ridge advertised in western Europe in the early days of July
• Rain
  was reduced in northwestern Russia, the Baltic States, Belarus and Poland June 28-30
• This
  change was needed
• GFS
  was wetter in Scandinavia and in southeastern Europe July 1-2
• These
  increases were not expected to verify
• Drying
  is most likely in far eastern Ukraine and northern and eastern portions of Russia’s Southern Region into Kazakhstan during the coming ten days; there might also be some drying in far northwestern Russia in time

 

The
overall bottom line brings drying to many areas in western Europe during the weekend and early to mid-week next week and to northeastern Europe briefly during the latter part of next week and into the following weekend. The drier bias may be welcome in the
east along with rising temperatures. Northwestern Europe may not welcome the drier and warmer conditions for very long because of some pockets of low soil moisture still present in a part of France, the U.K. and Germany. As long as rain is quick to resume
in early July the dry down will be more beneficial than detrimental, but if the ridge prevails longer than expected that would lead to crops stress in July. World Weather, Inc. believes far western and southern parts of Europe are not very likely to be dry
for very long. Northeastern Europe could dry down for a while during July, but that is speculation for now.  World Weather, Inc. is more interested in northeastern Europe and the northwestern CIS as well as Russia’s Southern Region for dryness issues in late
June and July.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

• Frosty
  conditions occurred this morning, but limited weather data was available and details of the temperatures was not available
• Frost
  will occur in the central eastern New Lands again Friday and in West Siberia Saturday
• No
  general theme changes to the weather were noted over the next ten days in today’s forecast model runs
• Rain
  will fall frequently immediately following the cool weather for the next ten days
• Temperatures
  will be cooler biased while rain falls periodically
• Soil
  moisture improvements will come slowly, but some benefit is expected to a part of the drier biased area near the Kazakhstan border
• A
  ridge of high pressure is advertised over the western parts of the New Lands beginning in the last weekend of this month and lingering in the first days of July
• The
  change will bring warmer and drier weather to the western New Lands in the June 28-July 1 period with some rain possible in West Siberia where cool weather may still be lingering
• The
  00z GFS model run suggested a more notable ridge would advance from west to east across the New Lands, but that solution was not very likely

 

CHINA

• No
  general theme changes were noted overnight
• The
  North China Plain and the northern half of the Yellow River Basin will see the driest weather through Monday, but some rain may impact eastern parts of the region during mid-week next week
• Some
  of the advertised rain is overdone for Shandong where 2.00 to 4.00 inches has been advertised in the past two GFS model runs
• Heavy
  rain is still expected in the Yangtze River Basin over the next ten days resulting in new flooding, although the rain is spread out over multiple days
• The
  European model is still suggesting 7.00 to more than 12.00 inches over the next ten days