FI Morning Grain Comments 06/17/20

Jun 17, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning. 
Several
factors including US weather is slightly pressuring agriculture futures this morning. Unfavorable weather across Canada may limit downward pressure for oilseeds and wheat.  Few export developments announced in wheat and Brazil beat out the US in the Taiwan
corn import tender.  USD stronger and WTI crude weaker. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

UNITED
STATES

  • The
    general theme of increased rainfall for most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states as well as the many areas in the Great Plains remains in place for the next ten days
    • The
      morning model run reduced heavy rain in Kansas, Oklahoma, eastern parts of West Texas and western Missouri, but increased rainfall in central and southern Illinois and eastern South Dakota
  • Drier
    weather is still expected to evolve as early July gets under way
    • A
      new ridge of high pressure is expected to set up and it will return the heat and dryness over time making this next ten days of rain extremely important

 

Rain
that occurs in the balance of July will extremely important and quite beneficial.  The moisture may be a little overdone in some areas, but it would likely ensure good soil moisture as July gets under way and that will help crops endure the drier and warmer
weather that is expected in July much better than without the moisture. The outlook will be closely monitored, although our Trend Model has suggested this advertised scenario has high potential for verification.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    significant change was noted over the coming ten days
    • Rain
      will slowly diminish over the next four to five days across the European Continent
    • Temperatures
      will trend warmer and the weather will be much drier during the weekend through all of next week
    • Faster
      drying rates are expected in many areas and those with the driest soil will experience quick drying and some moisture stress
  • A
    ridge of high pressure that dominates next week will move from west to east out of Europe June 26-July 2 resulting in the development of scattered showers once again beginning in the west and advancing into central parts of the continent

 

Net
drying will occur for a little while longer from the Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan. Some drying is expected in the second week of the outlook with rising temperatures and that will firm the soil in many crop areas, but especially those that have already
been drying out recently. Rain in western Ukraine through the weekend will be ideal in protecting crops, but eastern Ukraine may not see much moisture and could dry down more significantly along with parts of the Volga River Basin.

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    significant change was suggested for the first week of the outlook
    • Frost
      is still possible Thursday and Friday mornings this week
      • Only
        a few light freezes are expected and the impact should be low with sunseed far more vulnerable than spring wheat
    • Rain
      follows the cold
  • GFS
    was wetter in southern parts of the Ural Mountains region late next week relative to the previous model run
    • Some
      of the increase may have been overdone

 

The
outlook is still favorable for many crops throughout the New Lands, but dryness is still a concern for crops near the Kazakhstan border. Frost and freezes that occur this week should not induce much permanent crop damage especially since most of the temperatures
will only be in the soft frost range. Sunseed would be more vulnerable to damage than spring wheat

 

CHINA

  • The
    latest soil assessment from Tuesday clearly shows a huge amount of land in east-central through southern China as being too wet
    • Flooding
      continues to occur in various places in the region each day with the most serious flooding of late occurring between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers
  • This
    week’s big storm exits off the central east coast later today
  • Next
    big storm is expected Tuesday into Thursday of next week generating additional heavy rain and inducing some new flooding in central parts of the nation
  • One
    more storm system is expected Jun 27-28
  • Today’s
    06z GFS model run is wetter from Shandong and eastern Shanxi into Liaoning most of which occurs during mid- to late-week next week
  • The
    European model run is notably wetter over the next ten days from southeastern Sichuan, Hunan and parts of both Guangxi and Guizhou to southern Jiangsu where 7.00 to more than 15.00 inches of rain has been advertised for the next ten days – this seems to be
    a little overdone, but that much rain over the already saturated ground would have a negative impact on crops and property

 

The
bottom line remains one of abundant moisture in China. Crop quality declines and production cuts are suspected in parts of the nation where the greatest rain has occurred and where more heavy rain is expected. The best crop weather continues in the Northeast
Provinces. Dryness remains in Hebei, Shanxi and northern Shandong and these areas may continue driest, although some rain may bring a little relief during mid-week next week

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • Rain
    has developed in southwestern Buenos Aires during the predawn hours today with 0.20 to 1.32 inches common and a local total of 2.58 inches in south-central Buenos Aires
  • Little
    change was noted overnight in the ten day forecast
    • Rain
      will overspread all of Buenos Aires today and will reach into eastern La Pampa, eastern Cordoba, central and southern Santa Fe and much of Entre Rios benefiting many wheat and barley production areas
  • Thursday
    and Friday will be dry and then a few showers will return to northeastern Buenos Aires, southern Entre Rios and Uruguay Saturday
  • Showers
    will occur over a larger part of eastern Argentina Sunday into Monday with drier weather the remainder of next week
  • Additional
    rain may fall briefly at the end of this month

 

The
environment will be very good for improving some of the nation’s wheat production region. Some disruption to fieldwork will occur briefly, but the long term impact with far outweigh any concern over field working delays.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    significant changes were noted overnight through the next ten days
    • Some
      light rainfall will occur in southern portions of the nation over the next couple of days with the best distribution of rain expected in Victoria and eastern New South Wales crop areas Friday into Sunday; some rain will reach southeastern Queensland during
      the weekend
      • The
        moisture will further help establish wheat, barley and canola, but greater rain will still be needed in interior parts of both Western and South Australia