FI Morning Grain Comments 06/15/20

PDF attached includes COT

 

Morning. 

 

USDA
inspections estimates via Reuters

Wheat                 
400000-600000

Corn                     
950000-1250000

Soybeans           
300000-500000

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S. crop weather remains mostly good and should stay that way through the next ten days. Southeastern Canada’s frost and freezes during the weekend may have damaged some corn and soybeans, but the impact should have
been low. Canola in Canada’s Prairies varies from being too wet in the west to too dry in the east. Some relief to the Prairies weather will occur over the next two weeks.

            India’s
planting weather for coarse grain and oilseeds is advancing well.

Relief
to dryness in east-central China last week has improved summer crop prospects in some areas. However, net drying in parts of the North China Plain and northern Yellow River Basin this week will raise unirrigated crop stress. Flooding in rapeseed areas during
the weekend may have reduced crop quality and certainly delayed harvesting.

            Australia’s
weekend rain was good for canola areas and additional showers are expected over the next ten days to maintain that trend.

            South
Africa’s western canola benefited from some rain during the weekend, but more is needed.

            Argentina’s
harvest has advanced well recently and will continue to move forward around periods of rain. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing, although some late season filling occurred while dryness prevailed resulting in greater worry over late season yield and quality
declines. Brazil’s weather has not been seriously impacting late season crops, but some small impact is expected.

           
South Africa’s harvest is advancing relatively well.

            Europe
weather is trending sufficiently wet to improve many crops. Net drying from the Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan could harm some summer coarse grain and oilseed crops if the trends last deeply into the summer.

            Overall,
weather will likely have a mixed influence on market mentality today.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Rain moving through a part of Saskatchewan Canada Sunday was benefiting some very dry areas in the province, but there are other areas in the Prairies that still need relief. Eastern and far south-central Saskatchewan and parts
of Manitoba are still quite dry. Additional opportunity for rain will evolve later this week for some of the drier areas. In the meantime, parts of Alberta are still too wet and will stay that way for a while this week.

            Frost
and freezes in Quebec and eastern Ontario during the weekend may have negatively impacts a small amount of wheat, but the impact is not known.

            Northern
U.S. Plains will be another area dealing with pockets of dryness during the next ten days while other areas are sufficiently moist.

            Good
harvest weather is expected in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and a favorable environment for late season filling will occur in Nebraska, northern Kansas as well as across the Midwest.

            Europe
weather will be mostly good for winter crops, although there may be some need for drier weather in early maturing crop areas to protect small grains from wet weather disease. Drying from the Volga River Basin into Kazakhstan may be a threat to unirrigated
winter crops, but most of the region’s crops are still rated favorably today. Spring wheat areas in the eastern Russia New Lands are also experiencing mostly favorable conditions, but some rain is needed near the Kazakhstan border.

            China’s
southern wheat quality may be slipping because of recent heavy rainfall. Drier weather will be slow to return and that may prolong harvest delays and concern over grain quality.

            Australia’s
recent rain was good for improving establishment for wheat and barley across the nation, although more rain is still needed in many areas.

            South
Africa recent rain in the far west was welcome, but rain is needed in other winter crop production areas. Rain coming up in Argentina during mid-week this week will be a tremendous help for wheat germination and emergence.

            Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bearish bias.

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
June 15:

• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• USSEC’s
  Asia Trade Exchange 2020, day 1
• U.S.
  crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for June 1-15

TUESDAY,
June 16:

• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Abares
  agricultural commodities report for June quarter 2020
• Asia
  Trade Exchange 2020, day 2

WEDNESDAY,
June 17:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Asia
  Trade Exchange 2020, day 3

THURSDAY,
June 18:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• Brazil
  Conab releases 2nd estimate for 2020 coffee crop, Sao Paulo
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  total milk production, 3 pm

FRIDAY,
June 19:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)