FI Morning Grain Comments 06/14/23

Jun 14, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USD
was down 35 points and WTI higher by 75 cents. Corn futures are lower from a slight correction in CBOT agriculture markets.  US weather outlook hasn’t changed that much.  Look for some rain to increase across the Midwest over the next week but keep an eye
on the dry areas of the northwestern Corn Belt. A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 7,000 thousand barrels to 1043k (1030-1055 range) from the previous week and stocks up 104,000 barrels to 23.052 million. CBOT soybeans are lower following light weakness in products and risk off
trading after trading in a higher but very choppy session on Tuesday. Higher Malaysian and China palm oil and near unchanged EU cash vegetable oil prices may limit downside movement in CBOT soybean oil. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by 115 points
this morning and meal $2.40 higher. US
wheat futures are trading lower early Wednesday on light profit taking by funds bias Chicago and follow through selling for higher protein wheat from rain prospects for the central and northern Great Pains this week.

 

Fund
estimates as of June 13 (net in 000)

 

 

Weather

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 14, 2023

  • U.S.
    Midwest rainfall will be minimal over the next ten days from southern Indiana through the heart of Illinois to eastern Iowa, eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
    • These
      areas are already too dry and moisture stress will be intensifying
  • Eastern
    Midwest will get showers today and Thursday with a few more possible during the middle part of next week
    • Ohio,
      Pennsylvania and New York will be most favored for rain
  • Portions
    of U.S. Delta and southeastern states will receive frequent rain that will be moderate to heavy at times during the next week to ten days
    • Local
      flooding is possible
  • U.S.
    central Plains weather will be well mixed with periods of rain and sunshine
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains and upper Midwest rainfall will be restricted, but showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically
  • Alberta
    and Saskatchewan will get some needed rain in the next ten days, although southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan will be largely missed by the greatest rainfall
  • Manitoba
    rainfall is expected to be restricted in the next ten days especially in the southeast
  • Much
    of western and southern Texas will be dry with warm to hot temperatures in the south over the next ten days
  • Northeastern
    France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark will be dry biased through the weekend, but showers and thunderstorms will slowly evolve next week to begin moistening the topsoil
    • Crop
      moisture stress will remain high until the rain evolves
  • Central
    and eastern Ukraine, eastern Belarus, the Baltic States and western Russia crop areas will be dry during the next week to ten days
  • Southern
    Europe will continue wet
  • Limited
    rain and mild weather will occur in Russia’s key grain and oilseed areas except in southern parts of the Southern Region where rain will fall significantly
  • Limited
    rain will fall in Kazakhstan next ten days
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin is expected to continue drying out raising the need for rain
  • Far
    southern China will be quite wet over the next two weeks resulting in some flooding in southern rice and sugarcane areas possibly harming the quality of early season rice and cutting into its production
  • India’s
    greatest rain in this first week of the two weeks outlook will be from Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy which is expected inland over northwestern Gujarat around 1700 GMT Thursday producing torrential rain and flooding from there and southeastern Sindh, Pakistan
    into southern Rajasthan  and far northern Madhya Pradesh Thursday through Tuesday
  • India’s
    monsoonal rainfall will otherwise be limited over the next week except strong thunderstorms in the far south this weekend
  • India’s
    weather will become more active in the June 21-28 period, although west-central parts of the nation will continue drier than usual
  • Western
    Thailand, western Cambodia and Vietnam rainfall will be lighter than usual over the next two weeks