FI Morning Grain Comments 06/12/20

Jun 12, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning. 
We
made a mistake in our PM comment leaving out AM prices in at the top of the comment.  Sorry for the confusion. 

 

Drier
weather forecast for the US growing areas will be in focus over the next week. News is light this morning. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    serious changes to the first week of the outlook was noted overnight
  • The
    second week forecast is advertised to be wetter bias for a large part of the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin
    • The
      Gulf of Mexico coastal area is advertised to be drier biased and rainfall in the northern Plains rainfall is close to normal, according to the GFS Ensemble
  • 06z
    GFS increased rainfall in the upper Midwest while shifting rain from the central Plains through Iowa to Michigan southward into the lower Midwest during the second weekend of the outlook
    • Some
      of the southward shift in rainfall was overdone
  • No
    change in the scattered showers and thunderstorms advertised for the southern Plains was noted for the second weekend; portions of West Texas and the Texas Blacklands get rain
  • GFS
    reduced rain from West Texas through the lower two-thirds of the Delta to portions of the Tennessee River Basin June 22-24
    • This
      change was needed
  • GFS
    reduced Midwest and Delta rainfall for June 25-26
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • GFS
    increased rainfall in the Southern Plains June 25-26 with significant rain for the heart of Texas, eastern portions of West Texas and areas north into western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle
    • This
      increase was overdone

 

The
bottom line to the GFS model run keeps precipitation in this first week of the outlook restricted and temperatures trending warmer. The second week turns a little cooler and wetter. This theme change is possible, although the precipitation may be a little
overdone during the second week of the outlook. The mix of weather if it verifies should prove supportive for U.S. summer crops preventing any areas that are drying out in this first week of the outlook from becoming too dry in the following week. However,
be sure to not that the European model run is much less wet through day ten and that is the better solution. World Weather, Inc.’s Trend Model still suggests the best time period for increased rainfall in the Midwest, Plains and Delta will be during the last
week of this month….June 23-30.  If the European model run is correct (and we believe it is) there will be warm conditions and net drying during the next ten to 11 days. Crop conditions should still be favorable in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and Midwest
during the next ten days because of good subsoil moisture and for the Delta and western Corn because of good topsoil moisture following recent rain in many areas. Timely rain in late June should prove beneficial and supportive of crops in these areas. The
Great Plains will be quite dry until the last week of June when parts of the region may get some needed moisture.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    major theme changes were noted overnight
    • Most
      of the European continent gets rain at one time or another over the next ten days from western Ukraine, Belarus and Baltic States to the U.K., France and northern Spain
    • Net
      drying occurs from eastern Ukraine and parts of the middle and lower Volga River Basin into the Ural Mountains and Kazakhstan
    • Temperatures
      will be quite warm in this first week of the outlook in western parts of the CIS, although the shower activity will temper the warmth

 

The
bottom line keeps most of Europe in a mostly favorable environment. There are still concerns about pockets that have not received abundant rain in recent weeks, but there are no broad-based areas of dryness that are expected for the next couple of weeks with
the exception of eastern Ukraine into Kazakhstan. There is a warm temperature bias in parts of eastern Europe and the western CIS that will dominate a part of the coming week to ten days and that may accelerate drying between rain events. The biggest area
of concern for warm and dry conditions would be eastern Ukraine into Kazakhstan, but temperatures will be less anomalous in these areas than farther to the west. Nevertheless, the drying tendency in these areas will need to be closely monitored.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

  • Eastern
    New Lands are advertised much colder by all three of the global models today for next week
    • GFS
      model run is cold enough that there may be some frost and freeze potential for mid- to late week next week
      • Some
        of this cold may be overdone, but with the Canadian and European on board with notable cool the situation will be closely monitored
      • Most
        likely the cool air will be moderated somewhat before it gets into those areas
    • Some
      rain in the eastern New Lands may precede the coolest conditions

 

The
cool off in the eastern New Lands might be a threat to Sunseed, but spring wheat would not likely be seriously impacted other than burning back some vegetative growth. Recent temperatures in the eastern New Lands have been warm and soil moisture remains a
little low near the Kazakhstan border. Some rain may precede the coolest conditions, but some of the region near Kazakhstan may remain a little drier biased. The driest weather in the New Lands during the next two weeks may be in the Ural Mountain region northwest
into the Volga-Vyatsk.

 

CHINA

  • No
    serious changes were noted over the next ten days
    • Some
      rain fell again in Henan and northern Anhui overnight which further improved soil moisture and eased drought conditions
      • This
        region has now received rain twice this week and some of it has been heavy enough to greatly curb any concerns over dryness
  • 06z
    GFS reduced rain north of the Yellow River and in parts of neighboring Inner Mongolia early to mid-week next week leaving the region from northern Shaanxi to northern Henan and parts of Shandong  and Hebei with limited rainfall over the next two weeks
    • Some
      of this change was needed
  • Rain
    still falls abundantly to excessively during the late weekend and next week from western Guangdong and Guangxi into Guizhou and in the Yangtze River Basin
  • Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are still advertised in Northeast China throughout the two week forecast period with Heilongjiang wettest
  • Temperatures
    will be warmest relative to normal in northeastern China in the June 20-26 period and warmest in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin relative to normal in this first week of the outlook
    • Some
      of the rainy areas in the Yangtze River Basin will have a cooler tendency at times next week

 

The
bottom line will remain one of concern for net drying near and north of the Yellow River; including parts of the North China Plain. Flooding rain may threaten some of the unharvested rapeseed and wheat in the Yangtze River Basin and a tropical cyclone expected
in western Guangdong and eastern Guangxi late this weekend will contribute enough rain to induce some flooding. Wind damage should be confined to the coast. Good crop weather is expected in northeastern China over the next couple of weeks.

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    major changes occurred to the two week outlook overnight