FI Morning Grain Comments 06/11/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Lower
trade to start on improving US weather and end of week positioning.  Central WI, southern IL and northeastern NE saw rain yesterday.  Central WCB should see rain today.  Canada’s Prairies saw favorable rain yesterday bias eastern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and
Manitoba.  Good rains fell across parts of the Dakotas overnight bias northwestern North Dakota. Rain in central North Dakota has ranged from 0.20 to 0.67 inch while the Red River Basin has received nearly 2 inches, according to World Weather, Inc.  Maps of
rainfall below. 

o         
Williston 3.76 inches

o         
Stanley 2.56 inches

o         
Lansford 1.95 inches

 

Reuters
in a story said the U.S. EPA was considering ways to provide relief to U.S. oil refiners from biofuel blending mandates. RIN offers crashed (current off 15%) after this story was published.  Traders think this story is pressuring SBO and energy futures. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

Current
radar

 

 

Past
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 11, 2021

• Rain
  has impacted a part of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies overnight and more rain will fall today mostly in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan, Canada.
  
• The
  heart of the U.S. Midwest is not likely to see much rain during the next couple of weeks, although scattered showers of light intensity will occur. Net drying is expected, though.
  
• A
  tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico late next week may move into the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast at some point in time, but the storm will likely thwart Gulf of Mexico moisture from getting into the Midwest reinforcing the drier bias for those areas. 
  
• Landfall
  has been predicted for the central Gulf of Mexico coast June 18-19
• Areas
  from the upper Texas coast through Louisiana to western parts of Florida’s Panhandle will be closely monitored for landfall
• Some
  changes in the outlook are possible and the situation will be closely monitored
• Remnants
  of the storm will stay in southern United States and will not likely bring needed rain to the Midwest
• Flooding
  in the U.S. Delta remains serious today and some crop damage has likely occurred from this week’s 3.00 to more than 10.00 inches of rain
• Areas
  from southern Arkansas into central and interior northern Mississippi were most impacted
• West
  Texas will continue in a net drying mode, but temperatures will trend a little cooler and there will be a few showers in the coming week
• Brazil,
  Argentina, Australia, Europe and the western parts of Russia have seen no change in weather expectations overnight.
  
• China
  is also expecting a good general weather pattern to prevail.
• India
  will see excessive rain in the coming week from a monsoon depression that moves from Odisha into Madhya Pradesh
  
• Russia’s
  New Lands look wetter in the second week outlook today than advertised Thursday
• Sukhovei
  potential remains for next week in southern Russia and Kazakhstan, but the odds are low that much crop stress or damage will occur outside of western Kazakhstan
  

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 11:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
June 14:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop condition — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, China, Hong Kong

Tuesday,
June 15:

• FT
  Commodities Global Summit, day 1
• Malaysia
  June 1-15 palm oil export data
• Malaysia
  CPO export tax for July (tentative)
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
June 16:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• FT
  Commodities Global Summit, day 2
• Australia’s
  Abares to release agricultural commodities report
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
• CNGOIC
  oilseed conference, Chengdu, China, Day 1

Thursday,
June 17: