FI Morning Grain Comments 06/11/20

Jun 11, 2020







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Morning. 
USDA
reported 720,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China.  USDA
due out later.   China S&D’s unchanged for 2020-21.  USD is higher and WTI crude sharply lower.  US Dow futures are down nearly 900 points.  The US Fed estimates a three-year recovery in GDP. 

 

 

 

Weather

UNITED
STATES

  • Not
    much change occurred in the first week of the outlook overnight
    • Net
      drying is expected in most of the nation’s key crop areas from the heart of the Great Plains into the Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states
    • Rain
      is still advertised to fall heavily from coastal areas from northeastern Florida to New Jersey with heavy rain occurring inland to include most of Virginia and North Carolina
  • Rain
    June 18-20 was shifted north into eastern Canada’s Prairies while reduced in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest
    • Some
      of this change was needed
  • Rain
    was increased from the central and southwestern Plains through the heart of the Midwest June 21-23 and the wetter bias continued June 24-25 in the Midwest while also occurring in the southern Plains and a part of the interior southeastern states
    • The
      increase was overdone, although there will be an increase in rainfall during the June 21-25 period

 

This
morning’s model run was limited on rainfall through June 20 for most of the key U.S. crop areas and then a notable expansion of rain was suggested for June 21-25. A boost in rainfall is expected late in the second week of the outlook and it should linger into
the last week of this month. However, some of the advertised rainfall was overdone.  There will also be a chance for needed rain in a part of the southwestern Plains during the June 22-25 period, although its significance was certainly overdone today.  The
idea of weather pattern changes occurring after day ten makes good logical sense and if the change comes as advertised there would be replenishment for soil moisture in the Midwest that is lost over the coming ten days of limited rainfall and crops will remain
in good shape for most of the Midwest. Drought relief in the southwestern Plains may not be nearly as great as the GFS model implies.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • No
    significant change was suggested in the first ten days of the outlook
    • Rain
      is expected to occur in most of the continent, although there will be some areas that get less than others
      • No
        area will be exceptionally dry, although Scandinavia seems to get the least amount of moisture
  • Rain
    was increased in northwestern Europe June 18-20
    • Some
      of this was overdone
  • Rain
    was reduced from northern Ukraine into Belarus and the Baltic States and increased slightly in northwestern Russia June 18-20
    • Some
      of this change was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain from the Balkan Countries into Germany and western Poland June 21-23
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in parts of Ukraine
    • This
      change was needed
  • Central
    Europe rainfall was increased June 24-25 and reduced in northern Spain
    • Some
      of these changes were overdone

 

Overall,
weather in Europe will continue mostly favorable during the next two weeks with timely rain for most areas and no dominating period of warm to hot and dry conditions. June 21-25 may be a little drier than advertised this morning for parts of eastern Europe
and the western CIS and future model runs may move in that direction.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

  • Not
    much change occurred in this first ten days of the outlook, although there was a subtle reduction in advertised rain for parts of the region
  • GFS
    reduced precipitation in the southern Ural Mountain region and areas southwest into the middle Volga River Valley June 21-23
    • This
      reduction was badly needed
  • Some
    reduction in rainfall was also suggested in the western and central New Lands June 24-25
    • This
      reduction in rain was needed, but the model may still be too wet for that period

 

Even
though there is no broad based dry and warm weather pattern in the New Lands there is some tendency for restricted rainfall in the first week of the outlook and it would not be surprising to see less rain in the second week a little later today or in Friday’s
model runs.  There might also be a warming trend showing up in the second week of the outlook over western parts of the New Lands during the second week in future model runs.  For now, the outlook remains favorable for most crops in the New Lands.

 

CHINA

  • No
    major changes were noted in this first week of the outlook
    • Additional
      drought relief is expected today into Saturday with a few showers briefly Monday into Tuesday
      • Henan
        and Anhui have already received rain this week, but that which occurs today into Saturday will seriously curb drought in those provinces
  • GFS
    reduced rain in areas north of the Yellow River in this first week of the outlook and the second week is still advertised to be dry
    • This
      change is consistent with World Weather, Inc.’s prediction that dryness in China would shift a little farther north in China for a while
      • Dryness
        is expected from northern Shaanxi and neighboring areas of Inner Mongolia into northern Shandong and southern Hebei over the next two weeks

 

The
bottom line brings includes periods of heavy rainfall in east-central and southern China over the next two weeks. Heavy rain from Sichuan to southern Jiangsu and Zhejiang results from rain that falls today into Saturday and that which occurs late Monday into
Wednesday of next week. Some flooding is expected especially from the rain that falls next week. This may harm winter wheat and rapeseed quality and delay harvesting. A weak tropical cyclone will move into western Guangdong this weekend and feeds moisture
into the Yangtze River Basin resulting in next week’s heavy rainfall and flood event. The tropical cyclone will also bring some heavy rain back to Guangxi which flooded last weekend.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • No
    change occurred in the first week of the outlook
  • Rain
    was increased in western Buenos Aires June 21-22
    • This
      change would be good for winter wheat planting and establishment, but it may have been overdone

 

AUSTRALIA