FI Morning Grain Comments 06/10/21

PDF Attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Higher
corn and soybean prices this morning on technical buying. Corn and soybeans firmed during the last hour of electronic trading in part to positioning ahead of USDA report.  SUDA export sales were largely within expectations.  Chicago wheat is lower but paired
most losses. KC turned higher and MN higher.  US weather was basically unchanged with WCB seeing restricted rain.  Conab reported a higher than expected corn production estimate for Brazil at 96.4 million tons but that is down 10 million from their previous
estimate, a large reduction.  Brazil soybeans at 136 million tons were up 0.5 million tons from the previous month and 1 million below expectations.  Palm futures hit a 7-week low.  Malaysian palm oil end of May stocks were less than expected at 1.569 million
tons (1.64MMT est.) despite a lower than expected palm export figure.  China in its CASDE report lowered domestic feed and food use. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR June 10, 2021

• Market
  attention will remain focused on the northern U.S. Plains, upper Midwest and Canada’s Prairies where another round of rain is expected tonight and Friday.
  
• However,
  the attention on U.S. Midwest corn and soybean areas will also be rising as the European forecast model predicts minimal precipitation there for the next ten days.
  
• The
  American model has more rain in it for the Midwest, but both models are biased for below average precipitation with a bout of heat expected for a few days during mid-week next week.
  
• Additional
  rain fell in the Tennessee River Basin overnight expanding the excessive rainfall area of the past two days (see attached map)
• Rainfall
  in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin will be diminishing for a while which should lead to some improvement in the recent flood conditions
• Hot
  weather will also occur in the southwestern Plains over the next couple of days accelerating drying in West Texas, but relief is expected during the weekend next week
• Some
  showers will eventually return to the region
• No
  changes were noted in South America overnight
• Argentina
  still needs rain in some western wheat areas
• Good
  late season harvest weather will continue in Argentina
• Brazil’s
  rainfall in the south  periodically will be great for wheat, but comes too late for Safrinha corn
  
• Australia’s
  weather changed little overnight with scattered showers in various crop areas during the next ten days
  
• Greater
  rain would be welcome
• Spring
  wheat and sunseed production areas of Russia’s southeastern New Lands and neighboring areas of northern Kazakhstan where rainfall will be restricted for much of the coming two weeks. 
• Favorable
  weather is expected elsewhere in Russia and Ukraine
• Europe
  weather should be well mixed over the next two weeks, but some areas in the west will become drier than desired for a little while
• India’s
  monsoon will continue to be an under performer for a while with rainfall in the interior west from Gujarat through interior Maharashtra to Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu less than usual
• The
  monsoon depression is still expected to bring heavy rain inland from Odisha to Madhya Pradesh this weekend into next week, but the predicted rain amounts continue to come down reducing the risk of widespread serious flooding
• China
  will experience a good mix of weather over the next two weeks with improving soil moisture in the Yellow River Basin and neighboring areas that have been drying out recently

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
June 10:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans