FI Morning Grain Comments 06/10/20

Jun 10, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning. 
China buys Q4 US PNW soybeans, record US corn production prospects pressure futures, and wheat is higher from an uptick in global import demand.

 

 

 

Weather

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    significant theme changes were noted for the first week of the outlook
    • In
      Canada’s Prairies, however, rain was increased in eastern and central Saskatchewan; some of this increase extended into parts of Montana
      • The
        increase was needed, but a little overdone
  • GFS
    reduced rain from Montana top southern Manitoba for late next week and increased it from North Dakota to northern Minnesota
    • Some
      of this change was needed, but too much rain was removed from southeastern Canada’s Prairies
  • Rain
    was shifted southeast from NW Iowa, eastern Nebraska and central Kansas late next week to southeastern Kansas, Missouri, northeastern Oklahoma and parts of the lower Midwest and Tennessee River Valley
    • Some
      of this rainfall shift may verify, but some of the rainfall in Kansas and Missouri was overdone
  • GFS
    removed rain in Virginia, the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia for late next week
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in Iowa June 20-22 while it was reduced from North Dakota into Wisconsin
    • Some
      of the change was needed
  • Scattered
    showers in the lower eastern Midwest June 20-22 were reduced while rain was increased in the interior southeastern states
    • The
      reduction was needed, but the boost in rainfall might have been a little overdone
  • GFS
    reduced northern Midwest rainfall and increased the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states rainfall June 23-24
    • Some
      of this change was not expected to verify

 

The
06z GFS model run has a greater amount of cold air pushing southward through the eastern United States during the June 20-24 period and that is the primary reason for some of the changes noted this morning. That cool air is overdone.  The bottom line should
be a relatively good mix of weather for key U.S. Midwest crop areas during the next two weeks, although some of the rainfall may be light in the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states where some net drying should still be expected. The southern U.S.
Plains were advertised to have a little better opportunity for rain in the second week of the outlook on this latest model run, but that was likely overdone, and the region should continue to struggle with heat and dryness. Some timely rainfall will occur
in the northern Plains and northern Midwest during much of the outlook, but in particular during the second week of the outlook, June 18-24.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    tremendous change was noted in the first week of the outlook
    • Rain
      was increased in Belarus and a few immediate neighboring areas while it was reduced in eastern Poland
      • Some
        of the increase was overdone
  • France
    rainfall was increased late next week
    • Some
      of the increase was overdone
  • Rain
    was shifted to the east late next week from southern Poland to far northwestern Russia to the region from NW Ukraine into a larger part of northwestern Russia
    • Some
      of the reduction in Poland was needed, but too much rain has been suggested for northwestern Russia
  • GFS
    suggested greater rain from France, northern Spain and western Germany June 20-22
    • Some
      of this increase was overdone
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from Ukraine into Poland June 20-22 and reduced it in Belarus
    • The
      increase was not necessary, but these areas will receive scattered showers and thunderstorms
  • GFS
    increased rain from northern Italy to eastern Germany and northwestern Poland Jun 23-24
    • The
      increase was overdone
  • GFS
    increased scattered showers in eastern Europe and removed rain from Russia’s Southern region and immediate neighboring areas

 

The
bottom line remains about the same as recent past days. Most of the European continent gets scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next ten days to two weeks with some return of rain to parts of eastern Ukraine during the June 20-24 period. The first
ten days of the outlook includes net drying from eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region raising some concern over crop moisture for long term crop development. The European model run is a little more generous with rainfall in eastern Ukraine during
a part of that same period, but it has central Ukraine and Russia’s southern region drier biased during the same ten days. The divergence in the models over Ukraine rainfall will be closely monitored.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

  • No
    changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • GFS
    model was quite chilly for Russia’s eastern New Lands during mid- to late-week next week with some threat of frost and freezes in the northern parts of the region
    • The
      cold may be overdone, but it will be closely monitored
  • GFS
    model run finished the second week of the outlook (June 20-24) wetter biased than its previous model run and was wetter biased through day ten than the European model run
    • World
      Weather, Inc. believes the GFS is too wet and possibly too cool in the second week of the outlook

 

The
European model run today continues to restrict precipitation in parts of the eastern Russia New Lands while the GFS is wetter biased especially in the second week of the outlook. The divergence is significant, but the GFS is most likely overboard on the rainfall.
The bottom line remains mostly neutral on crops near and east of the Ural Mountains where some showers will occur lightly and periodically, but no general soaking will result. An absence of hot weather will conserve soil moisture and preserve crop conditions.
There may still be an ongoing need for greater rain near the Kazakhstan border.

 

CHINA

  • Rain
    fell significantly in parts of Henan and immediate neighboring areas overnight
  • Rain
    was increased for today and Thursday in a larger part of western and southern Shandong and immediate neighboring areas
    • This
      change will verify
  • The
    second week of the outlook is void of significant rain from the Yellow River Basin, North China Plain and a few east-central China locations
    • The
      model removed some rain from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi and some of that may have been overdone

 

The
return of drier weather to east-central through northern China (excluding the northeast) during the June 18-24 period raises the potential for dryness to return in parts of this region after a temporary reprieve from dryness occurs over the balance of this
week. The region will need to be closely monitored, but World Weather, Inc. believes the general theme should be a slight northward shift in the driest conditions reducing concern for Henan and Anhui, but slowly increasing concern for unirrigated areas in
the Yellow River Basin and areas northward to central and western parts of Inner Mongolia. There is some potential that Liaoning and Hebei will trend drier over time as well.  Additional dryness relief in Henan and Anhui should be most concentrated on today
into Friday and then drying may resume for a while. Southern China flooding will remain a concern in this first week of the outlook with some improving conditions possible in the June 20-24 period.