FI Morning Grain Comments 06/09/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 197,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

 

WTI
crude oil was 32 cents lower earlier and natural gas lower. The USD was 10 points higher.  USDA report day.  Day 3 of the Goldman Roll. CBOT soybeans are higher, meal turned lower, and soybean oil up sharply.
USDA’s
24-hour sales announcement of old crop soybeans to unknown was supportive.
There
are rumors that the EU is importing US soybeans to crush and sell back the soybean oil and/or biodiesel to the US. 
The
US weather forecast is largely unchanged. Rotterdam
soybean oil physical prices fell 50 to 65 euros from this time yesterday. China in its monthly S&D update raised 2022-23 edible vegetable oil production by 690,000 tons to 29.9 million tons in large part to an upward revision to rapeseed oil production. With
a rise in rapeseed imports and higher rapeseed oil output, China lowered their soybean oil import estimate for 2023-24 by 700,000 tons to 500,000 tons, a 58 percent decrease from the previous month, but still 100,000 tons above the 2022-23 season. Offshore
values were leading SBO lower by about 171 points this morning (515 lower for the week to date) and meal $0.30 higher ($5.40 short ton higher for the week).

 

USDA
will update their S&D estimates later today. For South America, look for them to cut current crop year Argentina soybean and corn production by 3 and 1 million tons, respectively. No changes are expected for Brazil corn and soybean production, for 2022-23.
We expect no change to US 2023 corn or soybean harvested & yields from May. 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 8 (net in 000)

 

 

 

Weather

Past
7-days

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 09, 2023

• High
  pressure will remain aloft over central Canada’s Prairies and influence a part of the U.S. Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend through mid-week next week limiting rainfall and allowing for warmer than usual temperatures
• The
  Canada high pressure ridge aloft will break down during mid- to late-week next week raising the potential for rain to develop in the western and central parts of the Prairies, including some of the dry areas in eastern and southern Alberta
• No
  general soaking of rain is expected, but enough shower activity “may” occur to bring some needed relief to dryness and some potential for better future crop development
• U.S.
  Midwest rainfall advertised for the next ten days will be light enough to maintain some concern over long term soil moisture and year enough precipitation will occur to benefit some of the crops in the region
• Cooler
  weather this weekend and early next week in U.S. Midwest will reduce crop moisture stress, although until significant rain falls there will be some ongoing concern over long term crop development potential
• High
  temperatures may be limited to the upper 60s and 70s Fahrenheit which is down from the 80s and lower 90s of earlier this week