FI Morning Grain Comments 06/06/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported sales of 165,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

A
water dam bust in southern Ukraine is sending grains higher along with a deterioration in the US corn crop rating and low production estimate for Australian wheat. Australia sees their wheat crop at 26.2 million tons, a 34 percent decline from last year. Traders
are concerned the Ukraine/Russia conflict is escalating. Local flooding of farms and villages is expected across a portion surrounding the Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka dam, about the same size of Utah’s Great Salt Lake. Soybeans are higher after USDA reported
the initial soybean crop ratings at 62 percent G/E, three points below an average trade guess. Corn ratings slipped 5 points to 64 percent from the previous week. Spring wheat ratings were 64 percent, two points below expectations. Soybean meal futures are
trading higher on short covering. Soybean oil is lower on weaker energy prices and lower lead by offshore values. August Malaysia palm futures decreased 65 ringgit to 3316 and Aug. cash fell $20 to $780/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about
162 points this morning and meal $2.40 short ton higher.
The
European model remains dry for the WCB but the GFS model is turning slightly wetter for the 7-10 day.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 5 (net in 000)

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 6, 2023

• U.S.
  Midwest cooling and expected rainfall during the  coming week to ten days will offer some relief to recent drying and crop moisture stress
•  A
  full restoration of soil moisture is  not likely and many areas will remain on a path for below average rainfall this month, but the timely rain and cooling should benefit many crops
• Less
  rain is expected in West Texas cotton, corn, sorghum and peanut production areas during the next ten days, although it will not be dry
• Canada’s
  Prairies will continue drier biased and warm through the end of this week and into the  weekend, despite some showers
  
• Some
  increase in rain and cooling is possible in the second week of the  forecast
• Northern
  Europe is expecting rain this weekend and next week easing long term dryness
• Eastern
  CIS New Lands will get some much  needed rain this week and into early next week easing recent very warm to hot temperatures and accelerated drying
• India’s
  monsoon will perform poorly through the weekend and into early next week, but it will  improve shortly thereafter with greater rain in the south and eastern parts of the  nation
• Australia
  is still getting some very well distributed rainfall across key wheat, barley and canola areas favoring well established winter crops
• Argentina
  is  not likely to see much rain, but will have good planting conditions for wheat and barley as well as have success with summer crop harvest progress
• Brazil’s
  Safrinha crops will get a little rain in this coming week
• China’s
  weather will be mostly good

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
June 6:

• Russia
  grain union conference in Gelendzhik, day 1
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• New
  Zealand commodity prices