FI Morning Grain Comments 06/05/20

Jun 5, 2020







PDF attached

 

Morning. 
OPEC will meet on Saturday to discuss oil production cuts. US stock and crude oil markets are rallying this morning. Jobs reports from Canada and US indicate an economic recovery for North America. USD was near flat as of 7:30 CT and agriculture markets are
higher. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    substantial change in the general outlook was noted for this first week of the forecast
    • A
      slight westward shift in the GFS predicted path of greatest rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal was noted with rain falling significant from Louisiana through Arkansas to Missouri, eastern Iowa and Wisconsin
    • Rainfall
      in North Dakota, eastern Montana, southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan will be restricted over the next ten days and net drying will resume after only a few showers and thunderstorms in the coming week
  • GFS
    reduced rain in Iowa, northern Illinois and neighboring areas June 13-14 while light showers were increased in Nebraska, parts of Kansas and eastern Colorado
    • These
      changes were needed
  • 06z
    GFS model reduced rain from southeastern Kansas and Oklahoma through the heart of the Midwest June 15-17; rain was also reduced in the Delta
    • Too
      much rain was removed from the outlook
  • GFS
    increased rainfall from Iowa into Minnesota and Wisconsin June 15-17
    • Some
      of the increase was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in eastern Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota and southern Manitoba, Canada June 15-17
    • This
      reduction was needed, although too much rain may have been removed
  • Areas
    from central Montana into the Canada Prairies were advertised a little wetter June 15-17
    • Some
      of the increase was needed
  • Rain
    was increased in the west-central and southwestern Plains June 18-19
    • Some
      of the increase may have been overdone
  • Rain
    was increased in Kansas, Missouri and a part of the lower eastern Midwest into the southeastern states June 18-19
    • Some
      of the increase in Kansas and Missouri was overdone

 

The
general theme for the U.S. should not change much from that of Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states today into Saturday, but the greatest rain will be associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal
which will reach Louisiana late Sunday and early Monday and will produce rain in Florida, southern Georgia, southern Alabama and from the lower Delta through Arkansas and Missouri to Wisconsin early next week. That will be followed by a cool front that will
move through the Midwest producing scattered showers and thunderstorms during mid- to late-week next week. Cooler and drier air will then occur for a few days followed by a new wave of rain in the northern Midwest followed by warming. Scattered showers in
the eastern and southern parts of the Midwest will be a little erratic and light during the second week of the forecast. The bottom line is a mostly good mix for the key crop areas in the nation, but net drying is expected in parts of the lower and eastern
Midwest and interior portions of the southeastern states. Limited rain and net drying is also expected in a large part of the Great Plains and that will have to be closely monitored since there has already been an expansion of drought in the northern and west-central
Plains recently.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • Very
    little change was noted in the first week of the outlook today, although there was a little less rain suggested for France and the U.K.
  • Some
    increase in rainfall was suggested for southwestern Russia, northwestern Ukraine and reduced in the U.K. June 12-14
    • These
      changes were needed
  • Scattered
    showers were increased from the Balkan Countries through western Ukraine to Belarus, the Baltic States and northwestern Russia June 15-17
    • Some
      of this change was needed
  • Rain
    was reduced in northern France and northern Germany June 18-19
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed, but a little too much rain was removed

 

Overall,
the general theme for Europe and the Black Sea region has not changed. Net drying is likely in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region during much of the next two weeks which is likely to culminate in the return of crop moisture
stress as temperatures will be a little warmer than usual. Restricted rainfall in the United Kingdom, northern France and northern Germany at times during the two-week forecast may continue some concern over crop conditions due to low soil moisture and the
region will need to be closely monitored. A favorable mix of weather is expected in the remainder of Europe and the western CIS.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

  • No
    change was noted in the first week of the outlook with net drying likely in the Ural Mountain region into central portions of the Eastern New Lands
  • GFS
    reduced rain in the Ural Mountain region June 12-14 and increased scattered showers in a few areas to the east
    • These
      changes were needed
  • GFS
    increased rain in the eastern New Lands June 15-17
    • Some
      of the precipitation might have been a little overdone, but the increase was needed
  • GFS
    decreased some of the rainfall advertised for the eastern New Lands June 18-19
    • Rain
      still falls in most of the region, but the lighter intensity was needed

 

Today’s
outlook in the eastern CIS New Lands is wetter for the second week of the outlook than that advertised Thursday. A breakdown in the weak ridge of high pressure over the northwestern New Lands was the reason for greater rainfall and as long as this ridge feature
is missing rain potentials will rise. World Weather, Inc. expects the ridge feature to return again, but there may be at least some opportunity during mid-month for timely rain to fall in support of spring wheat and sunseed crop needs throughout this region.

 

CHINA

  • GFS
    model has reduced rain in southern parts of the North China Plain, the southern Yellow River Basin and areas of drought in Henan and northern Anhui
    • This
      change was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in Heilongjiang and neighboring areas June 12-15
    • This
      reduction was needed

 

The
most important change overnight was the reduction in rainfall by the GFS model run for portions of the Yellow River Basin, southern North China Plain and areas south into the drought-stricken areas of Henan and northern Anhui next week. Rain still impacts
portions of these areas, but it is more scattered and light relative to previous model runs and now more consistent with that of the European and Canadian model solutions of the region. Rain will fall Wednesday into Friday of next week (which is later than
advertised Thursday) and it will now be lighter offering only a temporary reprieve from net drying.  Southern China will continue quite wet overt the next ten days to two weeks and northeastern China will see a little more favorable mix of weather with less
rainfall favoring better planting and early crop development.