FI Morning Grain Comments 06/05/20

PDF attached

 

Morning. 
OPEC will meet on Saturday to discuss oil production cuts. US stock and crude oil markets are rallying this morning. Jobs reports from Canada and US indicate an economic recovery for North America. USD was near flat as of 7:30 CT and agriculture markets are
higher. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

UNITED
STATES

• No
  substantial change in the general outlook was noted for this first week of the forecast
• A
  slight westward shift in the GFS predicted path of greatest rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal was noted with rain falling significant from Louisiana through Arkansas to Missouri, eastern Iowa and Wisconsin
• Rainfall
  in North Dakota, eastern Montana, southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan will be restricted over the next ten days and net drying will resume after only a few showers and thunderstorms in the coming week
• GFS
  reduced rain in Iowa, northern Illinois and neighboring areas June 13-14 while light showers were increased in Nebraska, parts of Kansas and eastern Colorado
• These
  changes were needed
• 06z
  GFS model reduced rain from southeastern Kansas and Oklahoma through the heart of the Midwest June 15-17; rain was also reduced in the Delta
• Too
  much rain was removed from the outlook
• GFS
  increased rainfall from Iowa into Minnesota and Wisconsin June 15-17
• Some
  of the increase was needed
• GFS
  reduced rain in eastern Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota and southern Manitoba, Canada June 15-17
• This
  reduction was needed, although too much rain may have been removed
• Areas
  from central Montana into the Canada Prairies were advertised a little wetter June 15-17
• Some
  of the increase was needed
• Rain
  was increased in the west-central and southwestern Plains June 18-19
• Some
  of the increase may have been overdone
• Rain
  was increased in Kansas, Missouri and a part of the lower eastern Midwest into the southeastern states June 18-19
• Some
  of the increase in Kansas and Missouri was overdone

 

The
general theme for the U.S. should not change much from that of Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states today into Saturday, but the greatest rain will be associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal
which will reach Louisiana late Sunday and early Monday and will produce rain in Florida, southern Georgia, southern Alabama and from the lower Delta through Arkansas and Missouri to Wisconsin early next week. That will be followed by a cool front that will
move through the Midwest producing scattered showers and thunderstorms during mid- to late-week next week. Cooler and drier air will then occur for a few days followed by a new wave of rain in the northern Midwest followed by warming. Scattered showers in
the eastern and southern parts of the Midwest will be a little erratic and light during the second week of the forecast. The bottom line is a mostly good mix for the key crop areas in the nation, but net drying is expected in parts of the lower and eastern
Midwest and interior portions of the southeastern states. Limited rain and net drying is also expected in a large part of the Great Plains and that will have to be closely monitored since there has already been an expansion of drought in the northern and west-central
Plains recently.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

• Very
  little change was noted in the first week of the outlook today, although there was a little less rain suggested for France and the U.K.
• Some
  increase in rainfall was suggested for southwestern Russia, northwestern Ukraine and reduced in the U.K. June 12-14
• These
  changes were needed
• Scattered
  showers were increased from the Balkan Countries through western Ukraine to Belarus, the Baltic States and northwestern Russia June 15-17
• Some
  of this change was needed
• Rain
  was reduced in northern France and northern Germany June 18-19
• Some
  of the reduction was needed, but a little too much rain was removed

 

Overall,
the general theme for Europe and the Black Sea region has not changed. Net drying is likely in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern region during much of the next two weeks which is likely to culminate in the return of crop moisture
stress as temperatures will be a little warmer than usual. Restricted rainfall in the United Kingdom, northern France and northern Germany at times during the two-week forecast may continue some concern over crop conditions due to low soil moisture and the
region will need to be closely monitored. A favorable mix of weather is expected in the remainder of Europe and the western CIS.

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

• No
  change was noted in the first week of the outlook with net drying likely in the Ural Mountain region into central portions of the Eastern New Lands
• GFS
  reduced rain in the Ural Mountain region June 12-14 and increased scattered showers in a few areas to the east
• These
  changes were needed
• GFS
  increased rain in the eastern New Lands June 15-17
• Some
  of the precipitation might have been a little overdone, but the increase was needed
  
• GFS
  decreased some of the rainfall advertised for the eastern New Lands June 18-19
• Rain
  still falls in most of the region, but the lighter intensity was needed

 

Today’s
outlook in the eastern CIS New Lands is wetter for the second week of the outlook than that advertised Thursday. A breakdown in the weak ridge of high pressure over the northwestern New Lands was the reason for greater rainfall and as long as this ridge feature
is missing rain potentials will rise. World Weather, Inc. expects the ridge feature to return again, but there may be at least some opportunity during mid-month for timely rain to fall in support of spring wheat and sunseed crop needs throughout this region.

 

CHINA

• GFS
  model has reduced rain in southern parts of the North China Plain, the southern Yellow River Basin and areas of drought in Henan and northern Anhui
• This
  change was needed
• GFS
  reduced rain in Heilongjiang and neighboring areas June 12-15
• This
  reduction was needed

 

The
most important change overnight was the reduction in rainfall by the GFS model run for portions of the Yellow River Basin, southern North China Plain and areas south into the drought-stricken areas of Henan and northern Anhui next week. Rain still impacts
portions of these areas, but it is more scattered and light relative to previous model runs and now more consistent with that of the European and Canadian model solutions of the region. Rain will fall Wednesday into Friday of next week (which is later than
advertised Thursday) and it will now be lighter offering only a temporary reprieve from net drying.  Southern China will continue quite wet overt the next ten days to two weeks and northeastern China will see a little more favorable mix of weather with less
rainfall favoring better planting and early crop development.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
June 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil export data for June 1-5

MONDAY,
June 8:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• U.S.
  crop progress — corn, soybean plantings, winter wheat conditions, 4pm
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• French
  Agriculture Ministry crop report due during week (no set day)
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, Malaysia

TUESDAY,
June 9:

• Brazil’s
  Conab grains report

WEDNESDAY,
June 10:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• International
  Grains Council virtual conference
• FranceAgriMer
  crop report and press briefing
• Crop
  report by Australia’s Abares
• Malaysia
  MPOB palm oil stockpiles, export, production data for May
• Cargo
  surveyors release Malaysia export numbers for June 1-10

THURSDAY,
June 11:

• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (Wasde) report, noon
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
• China
  CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
• Vietnam’s
  coffee, rice and rubber export data for May
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Council webinar: Palm oil in post- pandemic
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil

FRIDAY,
June 12:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• New
  Zealand food prices
• Shanghai
  exchange’s weekly commodities inventory
• HOLIDAY:
  Russia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

·        
May unemployment rate comes in at 13.3%, better than the 19.5% expected

·        
US Change In Nonfarm Payrolls May: +2509K (est -7500K; prevR -20687K; prev -20537K)

·        
US Unemployment Rate May: 13.3% (est 19.0%; prev 14.7%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) May: -1.0% (est 1.0%; prevR 4.7%; prev 4.7%)

·        
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) May: 6.7% (est 8.5%; prevR 8.0%; prev 7.9%)

·        
US Change In Private Payrolls May: 3.094K (est -6750K; prevR -19724K; prev-19557K)

·        
US Change In Manufacturing Payrolls May: 225K (est -400K; prevR -1324K; prev -1330K)

·        
US Average Weekly Hours Al Employees May: 34.7 (est 34.3; prev 34.2)

·        
US Labour Force Participation Rate May: 60.8% (est 60.1%; prev 60.2%)

·        
US Underemployment Rate May: 21.2% (prev 22.8%)

·        
Canadian Unemployment Rate May: 13.7% (est 15.0%; prev 13.0%)

·        
Canadian Full Time Employment Change May: 219.4K (prev -1472K)

·        
Canadian Part Time Employment Change May: 70.3K (prev -521.9K)

·        
Canadian Participation Rate May: 61.4 (est 59.1; prev 59.8)

 

 

Corn.

·        
Corn futures
are
higher on positive US economic data (massive surprise in jobs report indicating a recovery), higher WTI and short covering.

·        
Favorable US weather continues to cast a long-term bearish undertone on the market as the US carryout could exceed 3.3 billion bushels. 

·        
BA Grains Exchange reported 56% of the Argentina corn crop complete with an average yield of 8.9 tons per hectare.  They are using a 50MMT production. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Syria
  will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Soybean
complex.

• The
  soybean complex is higher led by soybean oil (technical rebound in oil share) amid improving US economic conditions and support from outside related markets such as crude oil and the devaluation in the US during last half Thursday trading. 
  
• China
  continues to buy US soybeans on Thursday. At least three cargoes traded hands.
  
• The
  BRL was up 2.2% against the USD at the time this was written at 5.007, back to March levels.
  
• It’s
  safe to say the bulls are eying US soybean export competitiveness against SA soybeans.
  
• BA
  Grains Exchange showed the Argentina soybean harvest nearly complete.
• APK-Inform
  estimated the Ukraine 2020 sunflower crop between 16 and 16.2 million tons, up from previous 15.5 million tons. 
  
• Rotterdam
  values this morning showed soybean oil down 10 euros, rapeseed oil up 3, and soybean meal when imported from South America up 4-6. 
  
• Offshore
  values this morning were leading CBOT soybean oil 24 points higher (up 74 for the week to date) and meal $1.20 higher ($5.20 higher for the week). 
  

·        
China

·        
China cash crush margins as of this morning, using our calculation, were 63 cents per bushel (70 previous session) and compares to 67 cents a week ago and 79 cents around this time last year.

·        
Malaysian palm:
Traders
are looking for a 9.9 percent increase in May ending stocks for palm oil.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• USDA’s
  24-hour reporting system announced:

–Export
sales of 258,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 198,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 330,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 196,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 134,000 metric tons is for delivery during the
2020/2021 marketing year.

• Syria
  will retender for 50,000 tons of soymeal and 50,000 tons of corn on June 24 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Wheat

• Wheat
  was higher
  in Chicago and KC and mixed to unchanged in MN this morning on lack of fresh news. 
  
• Paris
  December wheat was down 0.50 euro at 189.25 at the time this was written. 
  
• French
  soft wheat ratings were unchanged at 56 percent but remain very low relative to history.
  
• Ukraine
  spring plantings are 98 percent complete on an estimated 15.5 million hectares (does not include land not reported).
  

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 17 for November-December shipment. 
• The
  Philippines passed on 55,000 tons of feed wheat on June 4 for September shipment.
  

 

Rice/Other

• CBOT
  July rice tanked this morning against September.
• The
  Philippines seeks 300,000 tons of rice on June 8.