PDF attached

 

Good
morning
.

 

CBOT
agriculture markets are rebounding this morning regardless of unchanged fundamentals. The major difference from yesterday is a 30 lower USD and higher WTI.  Yesterday the USD was up more than 60 points.  Traders are likely reverting back to the US weather
forecast calling for dry weather across the upper Midwest.  The northern Plains have an opportunity for rain early next week when the ridge shifts back across the western areas of the US.  This would be beneficial after this week’s heat event.  Triple-digit
high temperatures are projected today across the Dakota’s.  Outside soybean related product market values were mixed. 

 

 

 

Weather

 

Past
week

 

Past
day

 

 

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 4, 2021

  • Divergence
    in the forecast models remains in a part of the northern U.S. Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies for the middle part of next week in regard to how much rain will or will not fall.
    • Rain
      will fall in the lower Midwest, Delta, southeastern states and southeastern Plains in this coming week benefiting crops in those areas
    • A
      drier than usual tendency will prevail in the northern Plains and northern Midwest, although some thunderstorms may occur briefly during mid-week next week in a part of the region
    • Canada’s
      western and northern Prairies will do much better with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coming week than the northern U.S. Plains
      • The
        southeastern Prairies may get some rain, but its distribution will not be very good
    • Drought
      in the northwestern U.S. is expected to prevail, despite some potential for rain in the second week of the outlook
    • Hot
      weather is still advertised for the far western U.S. in week two of the forecast
  • The
    forecasts today also are suggesting less rain and warmer weather once again for Russia’s southern New Lands and northern Kazakhstan during the second week of the outlook in particular
  • East-central
    China is not likely to get much rain for ten days and perhaps longer
    • Areas
      north of the Yellow River will receive some periodic rain, but areas from eastern Sichuan to Shandong and Jiangsu may be dry and warm
  • In
    South America, southwestern Argentina is drying down and would benefit from some rain especially in Cordoba, Argentina.
    • Brazil’s
      Safrinha corn areas will get a little moisture in this coming week with some northward expansion briefly into northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, but the rain comes too late to be of much benefit. 
  • Australia
    is still expected some showers in winter crop areas, but South Australia and Queensland precipitation will be most limited leaving them both in need for more rain
  • Greater
    rain is being advertised by the GFS model for Free State, Northern Cape and neighboring areas of South Africa early next week, but the precipitation is likely overdone and unlikely to verify very well
    • Rain
      is needed in this region to improve dryland winter crop establishment
  • Improving
    rainfall is expected in west-central Africa in the next two weeks
  • East-central
    Africa rainfall will increase later this month, but will stay much lighter than usual until then
  • India’s
    monsoon will continue to produce less than usual rainfall in the coming week
    • A
      boost in rainfall is expected from Odisha to Madhya Pradesh during the second week of the outlook while the south remains dry biased

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
June 4:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
June 7:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, planting — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
  • China
    customs to publish trade data, including imports of soybeans, edible oils, meat and rubber
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Malaysia, New Zealand

Tuesday,
June 8:

  • Australian
    crop report
  • International
    Grains Council Conference, day 1
  • France
    agriculture ministry’s monthly crop estimates

Wednesday,
June 9:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • International
    Grains Council Conference, day 2
  • FranceAgriMer
    releases monthly grains report

Thursday,
June 10:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board inventory, output and export data for May
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases output, yield and acreage data for corn and soybeans
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia
    June 1-10 palm oil export data

Friday,
June 11:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Soybean
sales were light and corn better than expected due to higher than expected old crop sales. 

 

US
soybean export sales were near the low end of a range of expectations for old and new crop combined.  Meal sales were 217,000 tons and soybean oil only 1,000 tons.  Soybean meal shipments improved to 281,100 tons from 192,100 tons previous week and soybean
oil shipments were 9,300 tons versus 1,000 week earlier.  US corn export sales for old crop were better than expected at 531,100 tons and new crop sales were 439,500 tons.  China bought 2 cargoes of old crop corn (158,500 MT, including 63,800 MT switched from
unknown destinations).  Sorghum sales were only 2,700 tons.  Pork sales were 24,300 tons.  All wheat old crop sales were negative 33,200 tons and new-crop 398,300 tons, a decent figure. 

 

 

 

Macro

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls May: 559K (est 674K; prevR 278K; prev 266K)

US
Unemployment Rate May: 5.8% (est 5.9%; prev 6.1%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) May: 0.5% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.7%; prev 0.7%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) May: 2.0% (est 1.6%; prevR 0.4%; prev0.3%)

US
Change In Private Payrolls May: 492K (est 610K; prevR 219K; prev 218K)

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls May: 23K (est 25K; prevR -32K; prev -18K)

US
Average Weekly Hours All Employees May: 34.9 (est 34.9; prevR 34.9; prev 35.0)

US
Labour Force Participation Rate May: 61.6% (est 61.8%; prev 61.7%)

US
Underemployment Rate May: 10.2% (prev 10.4%)

Canadian
Net Change In Employment May: -68.0K (est -25.0K; prev -207.1K)

Canadian
Unemployment Rate May: 8.2% (est 8.2%; prev 8.1%)

 

 

Corn

  • US
    corn futures are more than 10 cents higher on same talk over net drying across the US over the next week bias IA, MN and parts of the upper Midwest. 
  • Brazil
    has a chance for rain.  Yesterday’s GFS model runs showed rains developing across the Brazil Safrinha corn areas of Mato Grosso do Sul into southern Minas Gerais Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
  • Ukraine
    completed their spring plantings. 
  • US
    weekly ethanol production was up 23,000 barrels per day to 1.034 million (trade looking for up 11,000) and stocks increased 608,000 barrels to 19.588 million (trade was looking for down 29,000 barrels).  Corn crop year to date production turned a corner and
    is now running 0.2% ahead of the same period a year ago, versus 0.7% lower week earlier.  Much of the recovery is from a 21.2% year over year increase in US gasoline demand. 

 

Export
developments.

 

EIA:
U.S. energy consumption in 2020 increased for renewables, fell for all other fuels

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48236&src=email

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

  • Malaysian
    palm oil: (uses settle price)

    Up 3 percent for the week. 

 

 

Export
Developments

  • Iran’s
    GTC bought 30,000 tons of each soybean oil and sunflower oil for June/July shipment.  The soybean oil could be sourced from South America.  Prices were not provided. 

 

 

Wheat

 

 

Export
Developments.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea bought an estimated 94,400 tons of rice out of 134,994 tons sought, on May 13, at $986.00 and $989.00 a ton c&f from China and at $572.00 and $578.50 a ton c&f from Vietnam.   Arrival is for between September 2021
and January 2022. 

·        
Egypt seeks 100,000 tons of raw cane sugar on June 5. 

·        
Pakistan received offers for white sugar, with lowest at $533.90/ton c&f.  

 

 

USDA Export Sales

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/27/2021






























 

 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

-3.9

393.7

641.3

63.8

8,331.4

9,526.2

142.6

1,260.1

   SRW    

2.9

126.6

128.8

31.0

1,743.7

2,317.8

35.4

861.9

   HRS     

-8.7

424.6

1,040.1

108.3

7,337.4

6,960.3

107.9

1,274.6

   WHITE   

-23.5

324.6

614.2

40.1

6,280.8

4,750.9

112.4

944.3

   DURUM  

0.0

28.6

43.4

0.0

653.8

922.1

0.0

8.4

     TOTAL

-33.3

1,298.0

2,467.8

243.2

24,347.1

24,477.3

398.3

4,349.4

BARLEY

0.4

2.6

9.2

0.0

26.8

41.1

0.0

22.2

CORN

531.1

17,843.5

11,461.2

2,127.4

51,264.8

29,011.1

439.5

15,067.4

SORGHUM

-2.7

1,067.7

1,320.9

236.3

6,167.6

2,625.9

184.9

1,594.9

SOYBEANS

17.8

4,071.0

6,731.3

221.7

57,466.0

35,705.2

180.3

7,450.6

SOY MEAL

217.7

2,034.2

2,419.9

281.1

8,270.4

8,098.2

0.5

637.7

SOY OIL

1.0

50.5

257.7

9.3

617.3

892.4

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

6.7

220.8

251.2

11.5

1,414.3

1,210.2

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

16.1

32.6

0.3

24.8

63.9

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

11.3

13.5

12.6

0.3

37.1

55.0

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

45.1

42.6

0.4

111.2

76.1

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

3.3

59.5

46.3

2.4

539.6

798.1

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

3.2

185.2

169.1

19.3

497.4

545.2

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

24.5

540.1

554.4

34.1

2,624.4

2,748.5

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

180.8

3,130.8

5,010.3

366.5

12,596.6

11,315.4

98.8

2,020.1

   PIMA

7.3

158.1

143.5

13.6

646.7

413.7

0.0

4.0

 

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 21-27, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales reductions of 33,300 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Brazil (16,500 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from Mexico), Jamaica (8,900 MT, including 8,500
MT switched from unknown destinations), Burma (8,500 MT), Guyana (5,300 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Indonesia (2,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (44,800 MT), Mexico (13,600 MT), unknown destinations
(12,900 MT), and Malaysia (5,600 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 398,300 MT were primarily for the Philippines (105,500 MT), Japan (65,700 MT), Mexico (52,600 MT), South Korea (48,600 MT), and Nigeria (46,000 MT).  Exports of 243,200 MT were down 54 percent
from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (63,200 MT), South Korea (57,700 MT), Burma (33,800 MT), Malaysia (23,400 MT), and Brazil (16,500 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales:
 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 63,900 MT is for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 531,100 MT for 2020/2021 were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (179,500 MT, including 126,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,900 MT),
China (158,500 MT, including 63,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (138,000 MT, including decreases of 5,000 MT), Costa Rica (97,400 MT), and Colombia (80,300 MT, including 89,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of
13,900 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (227,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 439,500 MT were primarily for unknown destinations (202,400 MT), Japan (150,800 MT), Mexico (64,300 MT), and Canada (14,200 MT).  Exports of
2,127,400 MT were up 15 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,112,500 MT, including 76,100 MT – late), Mexico (302,300 MT), Japan (280,100 MT, including 97,900 MT – late), South
Korea (140,200 MT, including 9,000 MT – late), and Colombia (109,900 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales:
 
For 2020/2021, options were exercised to export 129,000 MT to South Korea (79,000 MT) and unknown destinations (50,000 MT) from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 80,500 MT is for unknown destinations.  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding
balance of 60,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Late
Reporting:

For 2020/2021, exports totaling 183,000 MT of corn were reported late to Japan (97,900 MT), China (76,100 MT), and South Korea (9,000 MT).

Barley: 
Total net sales of 400 MT for 2020/2021 were for South Korea.  No exports were reported for the week.

Sorghum: 
Net sales reduction of 2,700 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (65,300 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,900 MT), were more than offset by reductions for unknown
destinations (68,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 184,900 MT were for China (129,900 MT) and unknown destinations (55,000 MT).  Exports of 236,300 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination
was to China.

Export
Adjustment: 
Accumulated
exports of sorghum to unknown destinations were adjusted down 30,086 MT for week ending May 20th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Rice: 
Net sales of 24,500 MT for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the United Kingdom (10,000 MT), Mexico (9,600 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), and El Salvador
(1,800 MT, including 2,500 MT switched from Honduras and decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Honduras (2,500 MT).  Exports of 34,100 MT were down 54 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to Japan (14,200 MT), El Salvador (5,800 MT), Guatemala (4,400 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT were for Canada.  Exports for own account totaling 100 MT to Canada were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 17,800 MT for 2020/2021 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (41,000 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Colombia
(15,500 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (10,900 MT), Indonesia (5,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Taiwan (5,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations
(72,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 180,300 MT were for unknown destinations (132,000 MT), Mexico (34,000 MT), China (10,000 MT), Panama (5,600 MT), and Taiwan (4,300 MT), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (5,600 MT).  Exports of 221,700 MT–a
marketing-year low–were down 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (103,400 MT), Japan (34,800 MT, including 3,000 MT – late), Taiwan (19,900 MT), Indonesia (17,400 MT), and Colombia
(15,500 MT).

Exports
for Own Account

For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Late
Reporting:

For 2020/2021, exports totaling 3,000 MT of soybeans were reported late to Japan.

Soybean
Cake and Meal:
 
Net sales of 217,700 MT for 2020/2021 were up 10 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (59,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Ecuador (48,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (19,100
MT), Colombia (17,500 MT, including 11,000 MT switched from Ecuador and decreases of 12,200 MT), and Mexico (13,700 MT, including decreases of 4,200 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (700 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 500 MT were primarily
for Japan.  Exports of 281,100 MT were up 46 percent from the previous week and 64 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Colombia (74,700 MT, including 2,300 MT – late), the Philippines (50,500 MT), Ecuador (37,000 MT),
Mexico (29,200 MT), and Israel (18,400 MT).

Late
Reporting:

For 2020/2021, exports totaling 2,300 MT of soybean cake and meal were reported late to Colombia.

Soybean
Oil:
 
Net sales of 1,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 41 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Jamaica (4,000 MT) and Mexico (600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Colombia (3,000 MT).  Exports
of 9,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Dominican Republic (7,700 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (600 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 180,800 RB for 2020/2021 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Pakistan (74,900 RB), China (43,200 RB, including 3,200 RB switched from Vietnam and decreases of 23,100
RB),  Vietnam (22,900 RB, including 3,900 RB switched from China, 200 RB switched from Thailand, 100 RB switched from Japan, and decreases of 16,200 RB), Nicaragua (8,800 RB, switched from Vietnam), and Turkey (8,000 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 98,800
RB were primarily for South Korea (36,100 RB), Pakistan (24,200 RB), Turkey (13,600 RB), Vietnam (10,300 RB), and Colombia (4,800 RB).  Exports of 366,500 RB were up 13 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were
primarily to China (96,400 RB), Vietnam (96,100 RB), Turkey (33,500 RB), Pakistan (33,400 RB), and Mexico (15,300 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 7,300 RB were down 42 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
were primarily for Peru (3,200 RB), India (2,700 RB), China (600 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Pakistan (200 RB).  Exports of 13,600 RB were down 22 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to India (8,900 RB), Vietnam (2,600 RB), Austria (600 RB), Egypt (400 RB), and Italy (300 RB).

Exports
for Own Account:
 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance of 13,600 RB is for China (7,600 RB), Vietnam (5,600 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins:
 
Net sales of 226,600 pieces for 2021 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (135,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 15,100 pieces), South Korea (44,700 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 3,300 pieces), Brazil (20,600 whole cattle hies, including decreases of 100 pieces), Ethiopia (13,100 whole cattle hides), and Mexico (7,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 7,100 pieces), were
offset by reductions for Thailand (1,300 pieces).  In addition, total net sales reductions of 800 kip skins were for Belgium.
 
Exports of 418,900 pieces were up 13 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (262,600 pieces), South Korea (50,400 pieces), Mexico (31,500 pieces),
Thailand (25,100 pieces), and Taiwan (11,500 pieces).  Exports of 5,200 calf skins were to Italy.  In addition, exports of 7,700 kip skins were to Belgium.

Net
sales of 272,000 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (124,500 unsplit), Italy (90,500 unsplit, including decreases of 400 pieces), China (40,900 unsplit), and Thailand
(16,000 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Mexico (100 grain splits).  Exports of 208,900 wet blues were up noticeably from the previous week and up 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (81,300 unsplit and
3,900 grain splits), Vietnam (55,500 unsplit), China (27,400 unsplit and 2,200 grain splits), Thailand (17,000 unsplit), and Mexico (7,000 grain splits and 6,800 unsplit).  Net sales of 495,000 splits reported for China (375,300 pounds, including decreases
of 2,700 pounds) and Taiwan (125,700 pounds, including decreases of 3,300 pounds), were offset by reductions of Vietnam (6,000 pounds).  Exports of 446,300 pounds were to Vietnam (235,100 pounds), Taiwan (126,000 pounds), and China (85,300 pounds).

Beef: 
Net
sales of 12,600 MT reported for 2021 were down 55 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (2,500 MT, including decreases of 400
MT), Taiwan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT, including decrease of 100 MT), and Chile (900 MT).  Exports of 12,400 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 36 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,800 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), Taiwan (900 MT), China (800 MT), and Mexico (700 MT).

Pork: 
Net
sales of 24,300 MT reported for 2021 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (13,900 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT), China (4,800 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan
(1,800 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Colombia (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (1,000 MT), Nicaragua (100 MT), and Peru (100 MT).  Exports of 36,400
MT were down 24 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,500 MT), China (9,700 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT), and Canada (1,800 MT). 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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