FI Morning Grain Comments 06/04/20

Jun 4, 2020

PDF attached

 

 

Morning.
24-hour sale announced-120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown. US soybean are competitive.  USDA export sales were positive.  USD sold off after the EU announced another stimulus package.  China sold corn out of reserves. FAO sees global wheat production well
below USDA’s outlook. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    serious changes from Wednesday’s outlook were noted overnight
  • Tropical
    storm Cristobal was inland over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and very disorganized

    • The
      storm will move into the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and regain integrity
    • The
      storm’s deepest convection will be in its eastern sector and when the center of the system reaches Louisiana much of the greatest rain will fall in southern Alabama, southern Georgia and parts of Florida while rain associated with the storm center will be
      more concentrated over a very narrow region
    • Cristobal
      will move through Louisiana and then up through Arkansas to Missouri, Wisconsin and parts of Illinois early next week where locally heavy rain is expected
  • Cooler
    and drier air will follow the storm through the Midwest next week followed by a new ridge of high pressure in the Plains around mid-month that breaks down after only a few days

 

The
bottom line is a mostly good mix of weather for key U.S. crop areas during the next two weeks. There is some concern for dryness in North Dakota, eastern Montana, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba and this area will possibly be missed by
two rain events in the coming week and the ground is already dry. A closer watch on the region is warranted since any additional missed rain events could lead to some significant crop stress. Dryness will also continue in the a part of the southern Plains
with very little West Texas rainfall potential.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • No
    serious changes in weather were noted overnight for the next couple of weeks

    • There
      is still some concern about rainfall in the U.K. and northwestern France, although both areas will get some rain to temporarily ease dryness
    • Net
      drying is expected in southern and eastern Ukraine and rainfall in Russia’s Southern region may be limited for a while

      • These
        trends were already advertised earlier this week
    • Rain
      is plentiful across the remainder of Europe and the western CIS over the next ten days with a little less frequent and less significant rain thereafter
  • Temperatures
    will be cooler biased in western Europe over the coming week and near to above average in eastern Europe and especially the western CIS

 

EASTERN
RUSSIA NEW LANDS

  • No
    changes were noted overnight

    • Siberia
      gets most of the significant rain east of the Ural Mountains
    • Most
      other areas from the Ural Mountains to the western Fringes of Siberia will receive restricted amounts of rain during the next couple of weeks

      • Temperatures
        should be in a seasonable range on average during the next two weeks
      • Gradual
        drying is likely

 

CHINA

  • The
    European model run is drier today for Henan and Shanxi while still drier biased for Shandong and Hebei
  • The
    06z GFS model run is still advertising rain south of the Yellow River in Henan, northern Anhui, southern Shandong and parts of Jiangsu for early to mid-week next week which is little changed from the 00z model run and similar to Wednesday’s forecast model
    runs
  • 06z
    GFS model run is drier for areas near and north of the Yellow River and those areas are advertised to be drier biased for the next two weeks
  • A
    favorable mix of weather is still advertised for northeastern China over the next two weeks
  • Southern
    China continues to battle excess moisture and frequent rain, but there are some “brief” periods of drier weather expected in the next two weeks

 

Overall
the bottom line leaves some concern about areas near and north of the Yellow River being too dry over the next two weeks and World Weather, Inc. is not convinced that “good” rain will fall across Henan, northern Anhui, southern Shandong or northern Jiangsu,
although it does look as though these areas will get some rain briefly during the early to middle part of next week. The moisture will be very important for crops in Henan and northern Anhui which are experiencing drought conditions, according to the Chinese
drought monitor.

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

 

 

Seven-day
outlook:

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
June 4:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, 8:30am
  • FAO
    world food price index, 4am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • New
    Zealand commodity price