FI Morning Grain Comments 05/28/21

PDF Attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Soybean
complex was lower in a US pre-holiday trade.  Corn is on the defensive and Chicago wheat lower.  News was light.  Look for positioning today.  Good rain fell across the central and northern ECB over the past day.  The USD was up 33 points as of 7:32 am CT,
WTI higher, gold lower and equities higher. 

 

 

 

Weather

Last
24-hours

 

Next
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

World
Weather Highlights for May 28

• Frost
  and freezes in North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba, Canada overnight has likely damaged some crops, but assessing the impact will be slow in coming because of the holiday weekend.
  
• West
  Texas cotton is still advertised to get large amounts of rain during the coming week which will continue to improve production potentials for 2021. 
  
• Southwestern
  dryland crop areas may get some of the greatest rainfall
• The
  northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s southern Prairies will experience net drying
  
• Southern
  Russia’s New Lands and northern Kazakhstan will also dry down in the coming week and then get rain in the following week
• Temperatures
  are cooling down after being quite warm earlier this month
• No
  changes were noted in South America overnight
• Drying
  is expected in east-central China
• Western
  Australia will get some welcome rain for its wheat, barley and canola crops. 
• Eastern
  Australia will dry down for a while
• Western
  Russia and eastern most Europe will remain plenty wet for a while
• This
  includes Ukraine as well
• Southern
  China will remain quite wet
• Northeastern
  China will remain a little milder than usual and see frequent periods of rain
  

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
May 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received

Monday,
May 31:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Malaysia
  May palm oil export data
• HOLIDAY:
  U.S., U.K.

Tuesday,
June 1:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop condition and planting — corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, 4pm
• Honduras
  and Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
• International
  Cotton Advisory Committee updates world outlook for fiber market
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• Purdue
  Agriculture Sentiment
• New
  Zealand dairy trade auction
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
• USDA
  soybean crush, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia

Wednesday,
June 2:

• Nothing
  major scheduled

Thursday,
June 3:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil, Thailand

Friday,
June 4:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macro

US
Personal Income Apr: -13.1% (est -14.2%; prevR 20.9%; prev 21.1%)

US
Personal Spending Apr: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prevR 4.7%; prev 4.2%)

US
Real Personal Spending Apr: -0.1% (est 0.2%; prevR 4.1%; prev 3.6%)

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn was
  mostly lower on lack of fresh news and favorable US Midwest weather.  Look for positioning ahead of the long holiday weekend. 
  
• Rains
  will fall across the ECB today, and west central region Monday. 
• Yesterday
  the Buenos Aires Grain exchange said 31% of Argentina’s corn crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 38%.
  
• The
  French corn crop was rated 91% as of May 24, down from 93% previous week and up from 83% year ago. 
  

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48156&src=email

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybean complex turned lower during the late overnight session after gold broke.  The USD was very strong (up 33).  Expect technical selling and long liquidation ahead of the long holiday weekend. 
  
• There
  were 152 CBOT registrations cancelled by ADM and Cargill at 5 locations.  Registrations now stand at 13. 
  
• Soybean
  oil open interest was up about 13.7k yesterday. 
• Malaysia
  announced a full nationwide lockdown from June 1-14. 
• A
  Reuters poll calls for the April US soybean crush to be reported at 171.1 million bushels (170.0-173.0 range), down from 188.2 million bushels in March and below 183.4 million in April 2020.  US soybean oil stocks as of April 30 were estimated at 2.171 billion
  pounds (2.150-2.200 range), down from 2.245 billion at the end of March and 2.602 billion at the end of April 2020. 
  
• Russia
  reduced the export tax on soybeans to 20% from 30% from July 1 until September 2022. 
  
• Yesterday,
  Buenos Aires Grains Exchange: Argentina’s 2020-21 soy crop 43.5 million tons vs. previous 43 million. Argentina 91.4% soybean crop harvested and corn 31% corn.
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 26 points lower (160 lower for the week) and meal $1.80 higher ($6.00 higher for the week). 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil prices for soybean oil and rapeseed oil were mostly 15-60 euros higher and Rotterdam meal was about 9-13 euros higher. 
  
• China:
  

• China
  will launch crude palm oil and palm oil options on the Shanghai Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange on June 21 and June 18, respectively. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil futures rose about 2.5% following yesterday’s strength in soybean oil.  The benchmark contract gained 0.6% this week after falling 11.43% in the previous week, its biggest weekly drop in one year.
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price). 
  

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

NOTE
EIA DOES NOT REPORT TOTAL FEEDSTOCKS AND BREAKDOWN BY DIESEL TYPE USE – we use this for reference only

 

 

Wheat

• Chicago
  and KC wheat is mostly lower in a pre-holiday trade.  Traders are awaiting results on Saudi Arabia in for wheat. 
  
• MN
  wheat is higher.  Frost/freezes in North Dakota overnight into this morning may have had an impact on some crops.  The cold temperatures occurred in patches. 
  
• Friday
  morning’s weather shows mostly dry weather for the southwestern Plains before heavy rain falls through at least Monday.  US spring wheat areas saw additional rain, but more is needed. 
  
• Russia
  shipped 350,000 tons of wheat to Syria during since March.
• Australia
  plans to petition the World Trade Organization to set up a panel to overlook talks over China barley anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Australian barley.
  
• September
  Paris wheat market basis September was down 0.25 euros at 211.75.
• French
  soft wheat conditions as of May 24 increase a point to 80% from the previous week.  Winter barley was up 2 points to 77%.  Spring barley was up 1 point to 85%.

 

Export
Developments.

• USDA
  bought 83,000 tons of HRW wheat for Africa at $263.36-$264.01/ton for July 6-16 shipment. 
  
• Indonesia
  seeks 240,000 tons of feed wheat on May 31 for Aug-Nov arrival.  They bought some wheat for the week ending May 28. 
  
• Reuters
  noted Indonesia bought about 60,000 tons of Black Sea wheat late this week for August shipment at $310 a ton c&f, down from $315 a ton offered last week.  Australian Premium White wheat was offered at $320 a ton c&f, unchanged from last week.
• Results
  awaited: Saudi Arabia seeks 720,000 tons of 12.5% wheat on May 28-31 for July 10-September 30^th shipment. 
  
• Bangladesh
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on May 30.  In
  its weekly SBS import tender, Japan on June 2 seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival by November 25. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Egypt seeks 100,000 tons of raw cane sugar on June 5.