FI Morning Grain Comments 05/27/21

May 27, 2021







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
May 27, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 152,400 metric tons of corn delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Tight
US corn supplies keeping US cash prices firm and a sharp rebound in US wheat futures are underpinning corn futures.  The soybean complex reversed to trade higher after corn rallied post USDA export sales report.  US weather forecast is largely unchanged and
rains over the past 24-hours have shifted east bringing a welcome relief from the southern Great Plains to the upper Midwest bias WCB.  Rains will fall across the Midwestern central & western areas today, ECB Friday, and west central region Monday.  Argentina
ended a port worker 48-hour strike after reaching a Covid-19 vaccine agreement. They are now recognized as essential workers.  The Brazilian government will start vaccinating Santos port workers this week.  Export tenders for wheat are starting to pick up. 

 

 

 

 

Weather

Last
24-hours

Map Description automatically generated

 

Next
7 days

Map Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather, Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

  • Not
    much change occurred overnight.
  • West-central
    Africa coffee and cocoa production areas are still seeing lighter than usual precipitation and a boost in rainfall is needed.
  • Western
    Europe will dry down for a while, but the only dry areas are in the south part of the continent right now. 
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and southern Russia’s New Lands are still dry biased and may get some rain next week, but cooling and continued dryness is expected until then.
  • Watch
    east-central China….that region is expected to trend drier for the next ten days.
  • Northeast
    China remains plenty moist while the southeast is getting too much rain. In
  • North
    America drying will continue in northern most parts of the U.S. Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies while
    • West
      Texas will see frequent rainfall along with hard red winter wheat areas.
    • The
      southeastern states will be drying out for a while as well.
  • In
    South America Mato Grosso, Goias and southwestern Minas Gerais along with northern Sao Paulo will be dry. 
    • Additional
      rain will impact Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Sao Paulo and areas to the south
  • Western
    Australia will get some welcome rain to maintain a very good outlook for wheat, barley and canola planting and establishment
  • No
    tropical cyclones are present today

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
May 27:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil
    orange crop forecast for 2021-22

Friday,
May 28:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

USDA
reported better than expected old-crop corn export sales of 555,900 tons of corn, primarily for Mexico. China added 168,000 tons of old crop corn (66k from unknown).  New crop sales were at the low end of expectations at 5.691 million tons with most for China. 
Sorghum sales were reductions of 81,000 tons.  China cancelled 111,200 tons of sorghum.  USDA reported soybean export sales at 55,900 tons old and 248,300 tons new.  The new-crop sales were on the low side of expectations.  Soybean meal sales were ok at 197,100
tons and SBO of 1,700 tons were poor.  Shipments of meal and oil were low at 192,100 and 1,000 tons, respectively.  All-wheat export sales were 29,500 tons for old crop and 373,800 tons for new-crop, lower than what we expected for new-crop.  Old-crop is nearly
done. 

 

 

 

Macro

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q1 S: 6.4% (est 6.5%; prev 6.4%)

US
GDP Price Index Q1 S: 4.3% (est 4.1%; prev 4.1%)

US
Personal Consumption Q1 S: 11.3% (est 10.9%; prev 10.7%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 S: 2.5% (est 2.3%; prev 2.3%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims May 22: 406K (est 425K; prev 444K)

US
Continuing Claims May 15: 3642K (est 3680K; prevR 3738K; prev 3751K)

US
Durable Goods Orders Apr P: -1.3% (est 0.8%; prevR 1.3%; prev 0.8%)

US
Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation Apr P: 1.0% (est 0.7%; prevR 3.2%; prev 1.9%)

US
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air Apr P: 2.3% (est 1.0%; prevR 2.2%; prev 1.2%)

US
Cap Goods Ship Nondef EX-Air Apr P: 0.9% (est 0.8%; prevR 1.6%; prev 1.6%)

Canada
Non-Farm Payrolls Rose 245.8k In March To 16.1 Mln

 

 

Corn

 

Export
developments.

 

Soybeans

  • Malaysian
    palm oil: (uses settle price)    . 

 

Export
Developments

  • South
    Korea’s MFG bought 59,000 tons of optional origin soybean meal at $484.28/ton for September shipment. 

 

Wheat

 

Export
Developments.

  • Saudi
    Arabia seeks 720,000 tons of 12.5% wheat on May 28-31 for July 10-September 30th shipment. 
  • Cancelled:
     Tunisia
    was in for 92,000 tons of wheat, optional origin, for June 15 through July 25 shipment. 
    Lowest
    offer was $279.82/ton.
  • Japan
    bought 124,620 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada later this week.

 

  • In
    its weekly SBS import tender, Japan on June 2 seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival by November 25. 
  • Jordan
    cancelled their 120,000-ton barley import tender for Oct-Nov shipment. 
  • Results
    awaited: Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on Wednesday, valid until Thursday, for shipment between July 1-31. 

  • Bangladesh
    seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on May 30. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported

 

USDA
Export Sales

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period May 14-May 20, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 29,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 76 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Canada (10,400 MT, including decreases of 2,600 MT), Burma (7,000 MT, switched from Malaysia),
the Philippines (4,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Indonesia (4,200 MT, including 600 MT switched from Vietnam), and Japan (2,700 MT), were offset by reductions for Malaysia (6,300 MT) and Mexico (6,100 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 373,800 MT
primarily for Nigeria (78,000 MT), Japan (65,000 MT), the Philippines (60,000 MT), Taiwan (59,200 MT), and Vietnam (53,000 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (500 MT).  Exports of 529,300 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week and
5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (92,300 MT), Mexico (85,800 MT), the Philippines (68,100 MT), China (62,900 MT), and Indonesia (57,600 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 63,900 MT is for Spain.

Corn: 
Net sales of 555,900 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (378,200 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), China (168,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),
South Korea (64,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,100 MT), Panama (23,700 MT, including 6,500 MT switched from Colombia (2,900 MT, switched from El Salvador and decreases of 8,200 MT), and Honduras (6,500 MT),
were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (70,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 5,691,300 MT primarily for China (5,644,000 MT), Panama (131,900 MT), Japan (50,000 MT), Costa Rica (32,000 MT), and unknown destinations (9,000 MT), were
offset by reductions for Mexico (178,000 MT).  Exports of 1,850,000 MT were down 17 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (847,000 MT), Mexico (379,000 MT), Colombia (200,700 MT),
Japan (200,000 MT), and South Korea (61,500 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, decreases totaling 59,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations.  The current outstanding balance of 209,500 MT is for unknown destinations (130,500 MT) and South Korea (79,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales totaling 60,000
MT were to unknown destinations.  The current outstanding balance of 60,000 MT is for unknown destinations.

Barley: 
Total
net sales of 400 MT for 2020/2021 were for South Korea. 
Exports of 400
MT were down
41 percent and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination
was to South Korea.

Sorghum: 
Net sales reduction
of 81,000
MT for 2020/2021–marketing-year low–resulting
in increases for
Eritrea (30,100 MT) and unknown destinations (100 MT), were more than offset by reductions for China (111,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 166,000 MT were for China (113,000 MT) and unknown destinations (53,000 MT). 
Exports of 193,500
MT were up
noticeably from the previous week
and up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations
were primarily to China (133,200 MT), Eritrea (30,100 MT), and unknown destinations (30,100 MT).

Rice: 
Net sales of 35,500 MT for 2020/2021 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Haiti (15,300 MT), Honduras (6,500 MT), Guatemala (2,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Saudi Arabia
(2,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (200 MT).  Total net sales reductions for 2021/2022, of 700 MT were for Guatemala.  Exports of 74,600 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week, but
down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (25,300 MT), Japan (14,600 MT), El Salvador (6,700 MT), Guatemala (6,500 MT), and Honduras (6,400 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 55,900 MT for 2020/2021 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Indonesia (74,900 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Egypt
(52,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (34,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (13,700 MT, including decreases of 3,500 MT), and Vietnam (13,600 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (168,100 MT).  For
2021/2022, net sales of 248,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (162,500 MT) and unknown destinations (45,000 MT).  Exports of 294,600 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Indonesia (84,800 MT), Mexico (72,700 MT), Egypt (52,000 MT), Japan (32,900 MT), and Taiwan (13,200 MT).

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 197,400 MT for 2020/2021 were up 4 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (53,500 MT), the Philippines (48,600 MT), Mexico (37,600 MT, including decreases of 2,300
MT), the Dominican Republic (11,000 MT), and Sri Lanka (9,900 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Belgium (4,300 MT) and Guatemala (2,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 76,900 MT were for Panama (46,900 MT) and Canada (30,000 MT).  Exports of 192,100
MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (50,100 MT), Mexico (34,500 MT), Morocco (30,300 MT), Colombia (26,900 MT), and Canada (18,800 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 1,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Canada (1,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT).  Exports of 1,000 MT were down 93 percent from
the previous week and 92 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to Canada (600 MT) and Mexico (400 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 171,200 RB for 2020/2021 were up 59 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (42,800 RB, including 800 RB switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 1,400 RB), Pakistan (39,500
RB), Vietnam (21,900 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from Japan, 1,100 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 800 RB), Turkey (19,400 RB, including decreases of 2,500 RB), and Indonesia (7,600 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from Japan and decreases
of 800 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (1,100 RB) and Hong Kong (800 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 92,400 RB were primarily for Turkey (37,000 RB), Mexico (35,200 RB), Pakistan (6,600 RB), Thailand (6,500 RB), and South Korea (4,000
RB).  Exports of 323,500 RB were down 6 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (83,300 RB), China (57,900 RB), Turkey (43,800 RB), Pakistan (40,700 RB), and Indonesia (28,000 RB).  Net
sales of Pima totaling 12,700 RB were up 58 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (7,900 RB), India (3,200 RB), and Peru (1,400 RB).  Exports of 17,500 RB were up noticeably from the
previous week and up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (6,500 RB), China (6,000 RB), Peru (2,600 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), and Turkey (400 RB). 

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, exports for own account totaling 3,800 RB to Vietnam were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 13,600 RB is for China (7,600 RB), Vietnam (5,600 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins:  Net sales of 624,400
pieces for 2021 were up
noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
were
primarily for China
(484,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 12,700 pieces), South Korea (54,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 800 pieces), Thailand (39,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), Mexico (24,600 whole cattle hides, including
decreases of 3,200 pieces), and Taiwan (9,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 200 pieces). 
Exports of 372,400
pieces were up
13 percent from the previous week,
but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (252,600
pieces), South Korea (58,700
pieces), Mexico
(26,000 pieces), Thailand (14,200 pieces), and Japan (4,500 pieces). 

Net
sales of 104,800
wet blues for 2021 were up
noticeably from the previous week,
but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for
China
(38,300 unsplit), Mexico (24,700 unsplit and 3,200 grain splits), Italy (20,000 unsplit), Thailand (9,800 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit), and Vietnam (8,500 unsplit, including decreases of 100 pieces), were offset by reductions for China (2,300
grain splits).  Exports of 67,600
wet blues were down
52 percent from the previous week
and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to
Vietnam
(24,300 unsplit), Italy (10,700 unsplit), Thailand (10,000 unsplit), China (9,600 unsplit), and Mexico (7,700 unsplit).  Net sales of 165,900 splits were for Vietnam (120,500 pounds) and China (45,400 pounds). 
Exports of 120,000
pounds were to Vietnam.

Beef: 
Net
sales of 27,900 MT reported for 2021 were up 19 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (9,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (8,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South
Korea (6,000 MT, including decreases 400 MT), Indonesia (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Exports of 19,400 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were
primarily to Japan (5,400 MT), South Korea (4,900 MT), China (3,500 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (1,300 MT).

Export
Adjustments:  Accumulated
exports of beef to the Netherlands were adjusted down 33,589 MT for week ending May 13th.  This shipment was reported in error.

Pork: 
Net sales of 45,900
MT reported for 2021 were up
noticeably from the previous week
and up 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for
Mexico
(21,800 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China (9,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (7,700 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (3,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset
by reductions for Peru (100 MT).  Exports of
47,800
MT were up
38 percent from the previous week
and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to
Mexico
(16,800 MT), China (13,500 MT), Japan (4,800 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT), and Canada (2,200 MT). 

 

U.S.
EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  5/20/2021





























 

CURRENT
MARKETING YEAR

NEXT
MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET
SALES

OUTSTANDING
SALES

WEEKLY
EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED
EXPORTS

NET
SALES

OUTSTANDING
SALES

CURRENT
YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT
YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND
METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  
HRW    

12.5

461.4

995.3

135.3

8,267.6

9,038.9

59.1

1,117.5

  
SRW    

-7.9

154.7

175.3

23.6

1,712.7

2,268.0

45.5

826.5

  
HRS     

19.2

541.5

1,121.8

162.9

7,229.1

6,840.9

193.2

1,166.7

  
WHITE   

3.8

388.2

705.3

185.5

6,240.7

4,654.7

76.0

832.0

  
DURUM  

2.0

28.6

43.4

22.0

653.8

922.0

0.0

8.4

    
TOTAL

29.5

1,574.4

3,041.1

529.3

24,103.9

23,724.5

373.8

3,951.1

BARLEY

0.4

2.2

9.7

0.4

26.8

40.6

0.0

22.2

CORN

555.9

19,439.7

12,170.5

1,850.0

49,137.4

27,667.8

5,691.3

14,627.9

SORGHUM

-81.0

1,306.7

1,322.3

193.5

5,961.3

2,531.1

166.0

1,410.0

SOYBEANS

55.9

4,274.9

6,719.2

294.6

57,244.2

35,222.2

248.3

7,270.3

SOY
MEAL

197.4

2,097.7

2,152.6

192.1

7,989.3

7,811.7

76.9

637.2

SOY
OIL

1.7

58.8

324.1

1.0

608.0

816.6

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  
L G RGH

8.8

225.5

266.0

43.7

1,402.8

1,187.2

-0.7

0.0

  
M S RGH

0.0

16.4

36.9

0.5

24.5

59.5

0.0

0.0

  
L G BRN

0.2

2.5

20.4

0.4

36.8

46.8

0.0

0.0

  
M&S BR

0.5

45.4

56.6

0.5

110.8

59.6

0.0

0.0

  
L G MLD

19.7

58.6

48.0

5.5

537.2

780.8

0.0

0.0

  
M S MLD

6.3

201.3

173.5

24.0

478.2

539.1

0.0

0.0

    
TOTAL

35.5

549.7

601.4

74.6

2,590.3

2,673.0

-0.7

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND
RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

171.2

3,316.5

5,258.3

323.5

12,230.1

11,077.5

92.4

1,921.3

  
PIMA

12.7

164.3

145.2

17.5

633.1

411.6

0.0

4.0

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

Description: Description: Description: Description: FImail

 

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