FI Morning Grain Comments 05/25/23

May 25, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA
export sales were very good for soybean meal. Old crop corn and wheat showed net reductions. Old crop soybeans, soybean oil and new crop grains were within expectations. The USD was up 29 points earlier and WTI crude down $1.12. Global equities were mixed.
The weakness in WTI crude oil is not impacting soybean oil and corn as much as it could. SBO is higher in large part to higher palm oil futures. Soybeans are lower from follow through selling in soybean meal. Corn is mixed while wheat is lower.
The
Great Plains will see additional precipitation bias western areas over the next week. Traders are starting to position ahead of the long US holiday weekend. Third month (Aug) Malaysia palm futures increased 86 ringgit to 3493 and Aug. cash increased $17.50
to $820.00/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 5 points this morning and meal $2.10 short ton lower. The EU agreed to extend the suspension of selected Ukraine imports for a year.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 24

 

 

 

 

Weather

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with low confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 25, 2023

  • Rain
    will bring dryness relief to Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba, Canada over the next several days
  • Alberta,
    Canada’s drought areas “may” get some needed rain in early June, although the GFS model run this morning has suggested significant rain may occur there this weekend and early next week – confidence in the GFS outlook is a little low
  • U.S.
    Midwest weather will continue drier than usual for another week and then scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely, though resulting rainfall may continue lighter than usual
  • West
    Texas received some welcome rain overnight and more is expected today and again Saturday night with a few other sporadic showers expected during the balance of the next two weeks
    • Planting
      moisture is improving, but subsoil moisture will continue low leaving concern about the long term outlook for dryland crops
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will get periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next week to ten days with a little worry over crop quality in some of the wetter areas
  • Northern
    Europe will be notably drier biased over the next ten days while the south continues to get waves of rain
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands are advertised to get some rain in early June after a dry finish to May
  • Northern
    India will trend wetter than usual this weekend into early next week disrupting some fieldwork, but perhaps benefiting early cotton development
  • China
    weather will continue well mixed for all crops
  • Southern
    Australia rainfall will be timely in the next week to ten days, despite lighter than usual
  • Early
    monsoon rainfall will be abundant in Kerala, India and along the coast of Myanmar during the next couple of weeks
  • Interior
    Thailand crop area will get needed rain, but may continue to see lighter than usual rain amounts for a while
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall will be in decline next week and on into the first half of June

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
May 25:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia’s
    May 1-25 palm oil exports
  • US
    poultry slaughter, red meat output, 3pm
  • EARNINGS:
    IOI
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Friday,
May 26: