FI Morning Grain Comments 05/19/23

May 19, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

Grains
and the soybean complex are rebounding Friday from positioning ahead of the weekend. The US weather forecast for the Midwest turned slightly unfavorable from that of yesterday. Limited rains in central areas next week may allow stress to build.
WTI crude was $1.13 cents higher earlier and USD 37 points lower. The Kansas wheat crop tour reported a yield of 30 bu/ac, 1 bu above USDA, but production came in at a low 178 million bushels, below USDA’s May estimate of 191 million,
due higher abandonment. Yesterday Argentina’s BA grains exchange cut their soybean outlook from 22.5 million tons to 21 million. 69.2 percent of the crop had been harvested across Argentina. Palm oil futures snapped a 3-day losing streak. Third month (Aug)
Malaysia palm futures increased 89 ringgit to 3481, and Aug. cash increased $12.50 to $835.00/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 21 points this morning (380 higher for the week to date) and meal $2.80 short ton lower ($4.40 lower for the
week).

 

Fund
estimates as of May 18

 

 

Weather

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 19, 2023

  • Frost
    and freezes occurred this morning in western North Dakota and surrounding areas; extreme lows slipped to 28 Fahrenheit
  • Frost
    in Canada’s Prairies overnight had a limited impact
  • Drying
    is likely in the northern U.S. Plains and portions of Canada’s Prairies through the weekend and into early next week with warming temperatures that will help accelerate drying and induce better planting conditions in the wetter areas
  • Central
    and some western parts of the U.S. Midwest will experience net drying over the next ten days due to restricted rainfall and warm temperatures
  • Some
    rain of significance fell in Kansas and the Texas Panhandle overnight lifting topsoil moisture in favor of better crop development in winter and summer crop areas
  • Argentina
    rainfall will benefit wheat planting over the next ten days
  • Safrinha
    corn and cotton areas in Brazil will be dry over the next ten days to two weeks which is normal
  • Southern
    Brazil temperatures may cool down in early June
  • Drying
    is expected in Russia’s New Lands over the coming week with temperatures trending warmer than usual
  • China
    weather will be well mixed with rain and sunshine over the next ten days, although dryness will remain in parts of Inner Mongolia
  • Northeastern
    Xinjiang, China will experience showers and milder than usual weather through the next ten days
  • Western
    Xinjiang, China will cool down for a little while in the coming week after a few days of beneficial warmth
  • Increasing
    rainfall is expected next week in Thailand and other mainland areas of Southeast Asia where it has been dry
  • Rain
    will be abundant in Indonesia and Malaysia during the next ten days
  • Europe
    weather will be favorable over the next ten days with the greatest precipitation in the south
  • North
    Africa is still anticipating greater than usual rain in the coming week that will come too late for crops
  • Australia
    rainfall will be limited for the next ten days with coastal Victoria being the wettest area

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Friday,
May 19: