PDF attached

 

Good
morning.
 

 

WTI
crude was 58 cents lower earlier and USD higher by about 44 points. US wheat and corn are lower on follow through selling after an agreement was reached to extend the Black Sea grain deal by 60 days. Russia said the deal was a “a qualified result.” The next
issue that will be worked on will be easing restrictions on Russia’s state agricultural bank, and lifting restrictions on agricultural machinery & parts, insurance, and reinsurance. Day 2 of the Kansas wheat crop tour showed the average yield at 27.5 bu/ac,
below 37 year ago. USDA is at 29.0 bu/ac for the entire state. Oil Share is seeing a reversal. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 57 points this morning and meal $0.60 short ton lower. Japan bought 113,555 tons of food wheat. Netherlands and
other EU countries are on holiday today for Ascension Day. Palm oil futures closed at 20-day low, down for the third consecutive session.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 17

 

Weather

A map of the united states

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 18, 2023

  • U.S.
    High Plains region will receive periodic rainfall through the next ten days from West Texas to western Nebraska
    • Much
      of the moisture will come late for winter wheat, but it will be good for summer crops
  • Favorable
    U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states weather will continue over the next ten days favoring fieldwork and crop development
    • Warming
      in late May and early June will accelerate drying rates in some areas and that should be monitored
  • Canada’s
    drought area of east-central and interior southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan will get no significant relief for the next ten days
  • Western
    and northern Alberta will receive heavy rainfall next week easing dryness in those areas, but the moisture should stay out of the drought region
  • Argentina’s
    rain potential for late this week and next week is still very good and wheat planting should proceed normally
  • No
    change in Brazil’s weather outlook was noted overnight with Safrinha crop areas drying down normally
    • There
      is no risk of frost or freezes in the next two weeks in any grain, coffee or sugarcane production area
  • China’s
    dryness in Inner Mongolia will remain in place with some potential expansion to the southwest into Shanxi over time, but for now only northern Hebei is included in the dry bias associated with the Inner Mongolia dryness
  • Russia
    and Ukraine weather is still expected to be favorable over the next ten days to two weeks with timely rain expected
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands and a part of northern Kazakhstan may dry down again as time moves along, though it will be gradual
  • Thailand
    and immediate neighboring areas are back into a net drying mode for the next several days with rain resuming late in the weekend and especially next week
    • Water
      supply is low and concern about El Nino reducing rainfall during the monsoon this year continues to be a key concern
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall and soil moisture are still supporting crops favorably
  • Ontario
    and Quebec were impacted by some frost and freezes today, but permanent damage to wheat was not suspected and most of the corn and soybean crops are just beginning to be planted
  • Frost
    is expected from western North Dakota to southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada tonight with a few light freezes expected as well; the impact on crops should be minimal
    • Some
      frost and light freezes occurred this morning in interior eastern Alberta without permanently damaging crops

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
May 18:

  • China’s
    2nd batch of April trade data, including agricultural imports
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Australian Agricultural Co.
  • HOLIDAY:
    France, Germany, Indonesia

Friday,
May 19: